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In industrial contexts, effective workforce allocation is crucial for operational efficiency. This paper presents an ongoing project focused on developing a decision-making tool designed for workforce allocation, emphasising the explainability to enhance its trustworthiness. Our objective is to create a system that not only optimises the allocation of teams to scheduled tasks but also provides clear, understandable explanations for its decisions, particularly in cases where the problem is infeasible. By incorporating human-in-the-loop mechanisms, the tool aims to enhance user trust and facilitate interactive conflict resolution. We implemented our approach on a prototype tool/digital demonstrator intended to be evaluated on a real industrial scenario both in terms of performance and user acceptability.

In reinsurance, Poisson and Negative binomial distributions are employed for modeling frequency. However, the incomplete data regarding reported incurred claims above a priority level presents challenges in estimation. This paper focuses on frequency estimation using Schnieper's framework for claim numbering. We demonstrate that Schnieper's model is consistent with a Poisson distribution for the total number of claims above a priority at each year of development, providing a robust basis for parameter estimation. Additionally, we explain how to build an alternative assumption based on a Negative binomial distribution, which yields similar results. The study includes a bootstrap procedure to manage uncertainty in parameter estimation and a case study comparing assumptions and evaluating the impact of the bootstrap approach.

Density deconvolution deals with the estimation of the probability density function $f$ of a random signal from $n\geq1$ data observed with independent and known additive random noise. This is a classical problem in statistics, for which frequentist and Bayesian nonparametric approaches are available to estimate $f$ in static or batch domains. In this paper, we consider the problem of density deconvolution in a streaming or online domain, and develop a principled sequential approach to estimate $f$. By relying on a quasi-Bayesian sequential (learning) model for the data, often referred to as Newton's algorithm, we obtain a sequential deconvolution estimate $f_{n}$ of $f$ that is of easy evaluation, computationally efficient, and with constant computational cost as data increase, which is desirable for streaming data. In particular, local and uniform Gaussian central limit theorems for $f_{n}$ are established, leading to asymptotic credible intervals and bands for $f$, respectively. We provide the sequential deconvolution estimate $f_{n}$ with large sample asymptotic guarantees under the quasi-Bayesian sequential model for the data, proving a merging with respect to the direct density estimation problem, and also under a ``true" frequentist model for the data, proving consistency. An empirical validation of our methods is presented on synthetic and real data, also comparing with respect to a kernel approach and a Bayesian nonparametric approach with a Dirichlet process mixture prior.

Finite element discretization of Stokes problems can result in singular, inconsistent saddle point linear algebraic systems. This inconsistency can cause many iterative methods to fail to converge. In this work, we consider the lowest-order weak Galerkin finite element method to discretize Stokes flow problems and study a consistency enforcement by modifying the right-hand side of the resulting linear system. It is shown that the modification of the scheme does not affect the optimal-order convergence of the numerical solution. Moreover, inexact block diagonal and triangular Schur complement preconditioners and the minimal residual method (MINRES) and the generalized minimal residual method (GMRES) are studied for the iterative solution of the modified scheme. Bounds for the eigenvalues and the residual of MINRES/GMRES are established. Those bounds show that the convergence of MINRES and GMRES is independent of the viscosity parameter and mesh size. The convergence of the modified scheme and effectiveness of the preconditioners are verified using numerical examples in two and three dimensions.

Next-generation reservoir computing (NG-RC) has attracted much attention due to its excellent performance in spatio-temporal forecasting of complex systems and its ease of implementation. This paper shows that NG-RC can be encoded as a kernel ridge regression that makes training efficient and feasible even when the space of chosen polynomial features is very large. Additionally, an extension to an infinite number of covariates is possible, which makes the methodology agnostic with respect to the lags into the past that are considered as explanatory factors, as well as with respect to the number of polynomial covariates, an important hyperparameter in traditional NG-RC. We show that this approach has solid theoretical backing and good behavior based on kernel universality properties previously established in the literature. Various numerical illustrations show that these generalizations of NG-RC outperform the traditional approach in several forecasting applications.

Approximating field variables and data vectors from sparse samples is a key challenge in computational science. Widely used methods such as gappy proper orthogonal decomposition and empirical interpolation rely on linear approximation spaces, limiting their effectiveness for data representing transport-dominated and wave-like dynamics. To address this limitation, we introduce quadratic manifold sparse regression, which trains quadratic manifolds with a sparse greedy method and computes approximations on the manifold through novel nonlinear projections of sparse samples. The nonlinear approximations obtained with quadratic manifold sparse regression achieve orders of magnitude higher accuracies than linear methods on data describing transport-dominated dynamics in numerical experiments.

Gradient descent is one of the most widely used iterative algorithms in modern statistical learning. However, its precise algorithmic dynamics in high-dimensional settings remain only partially understood, which has therefore limited its broader potential for statistical inference applications. This paper provides a precise, non-asymptotic distributional characterization of gradient descent iterates in a broad class of empirical risk minimization problems, in the so-called mean-field regime where the sample size is proportional to the signal dimension. Our non-asymptotic state evolution theory holds for both general non-convex loss functions and non-Gaussian data, and reveals the central role of two Onsager correction matrices that precisely characterize the non-trivial dependence among all gradient descent iterates in the mean-field regime. Although the Onsager correction matrices are typically analytically intractable, our state evolution theory facilitates a generic gradient descent inference algorithm that consistently estimates these matrices across a broad class of models. Leveraging this algorithm, we show that the state evolution can be inverted to construct (i) data-driven estimators for the generalization error of gradient descent iterates and (ii) debiased gradient descent iterates for inference of the unknown signal. Detailed applications to two canonical models--linear regression and (generalized) logistic regression--are worked out to illustrate model-specific features of our general theory and inference methods.

We consider the problem of causal inference based on observational data (or the related missing data problem) with a binary or discrete treatment variable. In that context, we study inference for the counterfactual density functions and contrasts thereof, which can provide more nuanced information than counterfactual means and the average treatment effect. We impose the shape-constraint of log-concavity, a type of unimodality constraint, on the counterfactual densities, and then develop doubly robust estimators of the log-concave counterfactual density based on augmented inverse-probability weighted pseudo-outcomes. We provide conditions under which the estimator is consistent in various global metrics. We also develop asymptotically valid pointwise confidence intervals for the counterfactual density functions and differences and ratios thereof, which serve as a building block for more comprehensive analyses of distributional differences. We also present a method for using our estimator to implement density confidence bands.

We consider the vorticity formulation of the Euler equations describing the flow of a two-dimensional incompressible ideal fluid on the sphere. Zeitlin's model provides a finite-dimensional approximation of the vorticity formulation that preserves the underlying geometric structure: it consists of an isospectral Lie--Poisson flow on the Lie algebra of skew-Hermitian matrices. We propose an approximation of Zeitlin's model based on a time-dependent low-rank factorization of the vorticity matrix and evolve a basis of eigenvectors according to the Euler equations. In particular, we show that the approximate flow remains isospectral and Lie--Poisson and that the error in the solution, in the approximation of the Hamiltonian and of the Casimir functions only depends on the approximation of the vorticity matrix at the initial time. The computational complexity of solving the approximate model is shown to scale quadratically with the order of the vorticity matrix and linearly if a further approximation of the stream function is introduced.