Motivated by the need to statistically quantify differences between modern (complex) data-sets which commonly result as high-resolution measurements of stochastic processes varying over a continuum, we propose novel testing procedures to detect relevant differences between the second order dynamics of two functional time series. In order to take the between-function dynamics into account that characterize this type of functional data, a frequency domain approach is taken. Test statistics are developed to compare differences in the spectral density operators and in the primary modes of variation as encoded in the associated eigenelements. Under mild moment conditions, we show convergence of the underlying statistics to Brownian motions and construct pivotal test statistics. The latter is essential because the nuisance parameters can be unwieldy and their robust estimation infeasible, especially if the two functional time series are dependent. In addition to these novel features, the properties of the tests are robust to any choice of frequency band enabling also to compare energy contents at a single frequency. The finite sample performance of the tests are verified through a simulation study and are illustrated with an application to fMRI data.
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Unmeasured confounding is a key threat to reliable causal inference based on observational studies. Motivated from two powerful natural experiment devices, the instrumental variables and difference-in-differences, we propose a new method called instrumented difference-in-differences that explicitly leverages exogenous randomness in an exposure trend to estimate the average and conditional average treatment effect in the presence of unmeasured confounding. We develop the identification assumptions using the potential outcomes framework. We propose a Wald estimator and a class of multiply robust and efficient semiparametric estimators, with provable consistency and asymptotic normality. In addition, we extend the instrumented difference-in-differences to a two-sample design to facilitate investigations of delayed treatment effect and provide a measure of weak identification. We demonstrate our results in simulated and real datasets.
The rapid spread of the new SARS-CoV-2 virus triggered a global health crisis disproportionately impacting people with pre-existing health conditions and particular demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. One of the main concerns of governments has been to avoid the overwhelm of health systems. For this reason, they have implemented a series of non-pharmaceutical measures to control the spread of the virus, with mass tests being one of the most effective control. To date, public health officials continue to promote some of these measures, mainly due to delays in mass vaccination and the emergence of new virus strains. In this study, we studied the association between COVID-19 positivity rate and hospitalization rates at the county level in California using a mixed linear model. The analysis was performed in the three waves of confirmed COVID-19 cases registered in the state to September 2021. Our findings suggest that test positivity rate is consistently associated with hospitalization rates at the county level for all waves of study. Demographic factors that seem to be related with higher hospitalization rates changed over time, as the profile of the pandemic impacted different fractions of the population in counties across California.
We present monostatic sampling methods for limited-aperture scattering problems in two dimensions. The direct sampling method (DSM) is well known to provide a robust, stable, and fast numerical scheme for imaging inhomogeneities from multistatic measurements even with only one or two incident fields. However, in practical applications, monostatic measurements in limited-aperture configuration are frequently encountered. A monostatic sampling method (MSM) was studied in full-aperture configuration in recent literature. In this paper, we develop MSM in limited-aperture configuration and derive an asymptotic formula of the corresponding indicator function. Based on the asymptotic formula, we then analyze the imaging performance of the proposed method depending on the range of measurement directions and the geometric, material properties of inhomogeneities. Furthermore, we propose a modified numerical scheme with multi-frequency measurements that improve imaging performance, especially for small anomalies. Numerical simulations are presented to validate the analytical results.
It is a common phenomenon that for high-dimensional and nonparametric statistical models, rate-optimal estimators balance squared bias and variance. Although this balancing is widely observed, little is known whether methods exist that could avoid the trade-off between bias and variance. We propose a general strategy to obtain lower bounds on the variance of any estimator with bias smaller than a prespecified bound. This shows to which extent the bias-variance trade-off is unavoidable and allows to quantify the loss of performance for methods that do not obey it. The approach is based on a number of abstract lower bounds for the variance involving the change of expectation with respect to different probability measures as well as information measures such as the Kullback-Leibler or chi-square-divergence. Some of these inequalities rely on a new concept of information matrices. In a second part of the article, the abstract lower bounds are applied to several statistical models including the Gaussian white noise model, a boundary estimation problem, the Gaussian sequence model and the high-dimensional linear regression model. For these specific statistical applications, different types of bias-variance trade-offs occur that vary considerably in their strength. For the trade-off between integrated squared bias and integrated variance in the Gaussian white noise model, we combine the general strategy for lower bounds with a reduction technique. This allows us to link the original problem to the bias-variance trade-off for estimators with additional symmetry properties in a simpler statistical model. In the Gaussian sequence model, different phase transitions of the bias-variance trade-off occur. Although there is a non-trivial interplay between bias and variance, the rate of the squared bias and the variance do not have to be balanced in order to achieve the minimax estimation rate.
Let $\pi\in \Pi(\mu,\nu)$ be a coupling between two probability measures $\mu$ and $\nu$ on a Polish space. In this article we propose and study a class of nonparametric measures of association between $\mu$ and $\nu$, which we call Wasserstein correlation coefficients. These coefficients are based on the Wasserstein distance between $\nu$ and the disintegration $\pi_{x_1}$ of $\pi$ with respect to the first coordinate. We also establish basic statistical properties of this new class of measures: we develop a statistical theory for strongly consistent estimators and determine their convergence rate in the case of compactly supported measures $\mu$ and $\nu$. Throughout our analysis we make use of the so-called adapted/bicausal Wasserstein distance, in particular we rely on results established in [Backhoff, Bartl, Beiglb\"ock, Wiesel. Estimating processes in adapted Wasserstein distance. 2020]. Our approach applies to probability laws on general Polish spaces.
The fuzzy or soft $k$-means objective is a popular generalization of the well-known $k$-means problem, extending the clustering capability of the $k$-means to datasets that are uncertain, vague, and otherwise hard to cluster. In this paper, we propose a semi-supervised active clustering framework, where the learner is allowed to interact with an oracle (domain expert), asking for the similarity between a certain set of chosen items. We study the query and computational complexities of clustering in this framework. We prove that having a few of such similarity queries enables one to get a polynomial-time approximation algorithm to an otherwise conjecturally NP-hard problem. In particular, we provide algorithms for fuzzy clustering in this setting that asks $O(\mathsf{poly}(k)\log n)$ similarity queries and run with polynomial-time-complexity, where $n$ is the number of items. The fuzzy $k$-means objective is nonconvex, with $k$-means as a special case, and is equivalent to some other generic nonconvex problem such as non-negative matrix factorization. The ubiquitous Lloyd-type algorithms (or alternating minimization algorithms) can get stuck at a local minimum. Our results show that by making a few similarity queries, the problem becomes easier to solve. Finally, we test our algorithms over real-world datasets, showing their effectiveness in real-world applications.
A backdoor data poisoning attack is an adversarial attack wherein the attacker injects several watermarked, mislabeled training examples into a training set. The watermark does not impact the test-time performance of the model on typical data; however, the model reliably errs on watermarked examples. To gain a better foundational understanding of backdoor data poisoning attacks, we present a formal theoretical framework within which one can discuss backdoor data poisoning attacks for classification problems. We then use this to analyze important statistical and computational issues surrounding these attacks. On the statistical front, we identify a parameter we call the memorization capacity that captures the intrinsic vulnerability of a learning problem to a backdoor attack. This allows us to argue about the robustness of several natural learning problems to backdoor attacks. Our results favoring the attacker involve presenting explicit constructions of backdoor attacks, and our robustness results show that some natural problem settings cannot yield successful backdoor attacks. From a computational standpoint, we show that under certain assumptions, adversarial training can detect the presence of backdoors in a training set. We then show that under similar assumptions, two closely related problems we call backdoor filtering and robust generalization are nearly equivalent. This implies that it is both asymptotically necessary and sufficient to design algorithms that can identify watermarked examples in the training set in order to obtain a learning algorithm that both generalizes well to unseen data and is robust to backdoors.
The use of deep neural network (DNN) models as surrogates for linear and nonlinear structural dynamical systems is explored. The goal is to develop DNN based surrogates to predict structural response, i.e., displacements and accelerations, for given input (harmonic) excitations. In particular, the focus is on the development of efficient network architectures using fully-connected, sparsely-connected, and convolutional network layers, and on the corresponding training strategies that can provide a balance between the overall network complexity and prediction accuracy in the target dataspaces. For linear dynamics, sparsity patterns of the weight matrix in the network layers are used to construct convolutional DNNs with sparse layers. For nonlinear dynamics, it is shown that sparsity in network layers is lost, and efficient DNNs architectures with fully-connected and convolutional network layers are explored. A transfer learning strategy is also introduced to successfully train the proposed DNNs, and various loading factors that influence the network architectures are studied. It is shown that the proposed DNNs can be used as effective and accurate surrogates for predicting linear and nonlinear dynamical responses under harmonic loadings.
Biomembranes adopt varying morphologies that are vital to cellular functions. Many studies use computational modeling to understand how various mechanochemical factors contribute to membrane shape transformations. Compared to approximation-based methods (e.g., finite element method), the class of discrete mesh models offers greater flexibility to simulate complex physics and shapes in three dimensions; its formulation produces an efficient algorithm while maintaining coordinate-free geometric descriptions. However, ambiguities in geometric definitions in the discrete context have led to a lack of consensus on which discrete mesh model is theoretically and numerically optimal; a bijective relationship between the terms contributing to both the energy and forces from the discrete and smooth geometric theories remains to be established. We address this and present an extensible framework, $\texttt{Mem3DG}$, for modeling 3D mechanochemical dynamics of membranes based on Discrete Differential Geometry (DDG) on triangulated meshes. The formalism of DDG resolves the inconsistency and provides a unifying perspective on how to relate the smooth and discrete energy and forces. To demonstrate, $\texttt{Mem3DG}$ is used to model a sequence of examples with increasing mechanochemical complexity: recovering classical shape transformations such as 1) biconcave disk, dumbbell, and unduloid and 2) spherical bud on spherical, flat-patch membrane; investigating how the coupling of membrane mechanics with protein mobility jointly affects phase and shape transformation. As high-resolution 3D imaging of membrane ultrastructure becomes more readily available, we envision Mem3DG to be applied as an end-to-end tool to simulate realistic cell geometry under user-specified mechanochemical conditions.
The field of Multi-Agent System (MAS) is an active area of research within Artificial Intelligence, with an increasingly important impact in industrial and other real-world applications. Within a MAS, autonomous agents interact to pursue personal interests and/or to achieve common objectives. Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) have emerged as one of the prominent agent architectures to govern the agents' autonomous behavior, where both algorithms and communication models are driven by the structure of the specific problem. During the last decade, several extensions to the DCOP model have enabled them to support MAS in complex, real-time, and uncertain environments. This survey aims at providing an overview of the DCOP model, giving a classification of its multiple extensions and addressing both resolution methods and applications that find a natural mapping within each class of DCOPs. The proposed classification suggests several future perspectives for DCOP extensions, and identifies challenges in the design of efficient resolution algorithms, possibly through the adaptation of strategies from different areas.
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