Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have sparked growing concerns among experts, policymakers, and world leaders regarding the potential for increasingly advanced AI systems to pose catastrophic risks. Although numerous risks have been detailed separately, there is a pressing need for a systematic discussion and illustration of the potential dangers to better inform efforts to mitigate them. This paper provides an overview of the main sources of catastrophic AI risks, which we organize into four categories: malicious use, in which individuals or groups intentionally use AIs to cause harm; AI race, in which competitive environments compel actors to deploy unsafe AIs or cede control to AIs; organizational risks, highlighting how human factors and complex systems can increase the chances of catastrophic accidents; and rogue AIs, describing the inherent difficulty in controlling agents far more intelligent than humans. For each category of risk, we describe specific hazards, present illustrative stories, envision ideal scenarios, and propose practical suggestions for mitigating these dangers. Our goal is to foster a comprehensive understanding of these risks and inspire collective and proactive efforts to ensure that AIs are developed and deployed in a safe manner. Ultimately, we hope this will allow us to realize the benefits of this powerful technology while minimizing the potential for catastrophic outcomes.
We analyse the power of graph neural networks (GNNs) in terms of Boolean circuit complexity and descriptive complexity. We prove that the graph queries that can be computed by a polynomial-size bounded-depth family of GNNs are exactly those definable in the guarded fragment GFO+C of first-order logic with counting and with built-in relations. This puts GNNs in the circuit complexity class TC^0. Remarkably, the GNN families may use arbitrary real weights and a wide class of activation functions that includes the standard ReLU, logistic "sigmod", and hyperbolic tangent functions. If the GNNs are allowed to use random initialisation and global readout (both standard features of GNNs widely used in practice), they can compute exactly the same queries as bounded depth Boolean circuits with threshold gates, that is, exactly the queries in TC^0. Moreover, we show that queries computable by a single GNN with piecewise linear activations and rational weights are definable in GFO+C without built-in relations. Therefore, they are contained in uniform TC^0.
We consider outlier-robust and sparse estimation of linear regression coefficients, when the covariates and the noises are contaminated by adversarial outliers and noises are sampled from a heavy-tailed distribution. Our results present sharper error bounds under weaker assumptions than prior studies that share similar interests with this study. Our analysis relies on some sharp concentration inequalities resulting from generic chaining.
There have been recent advances in the analysis and visualization of 3D symmetric tensor fields, with a focus on the robust extraction of tensor field topology. However, topological features such as degenerate curves and neutral surfaces do not live in isolation. Instead, they intriguingly interact with each other. In this paper, we introduce the notion of {\em topological graph} for 3D symmetric tensor fields to facilitate global topological analysis of such fields. The nodes of the graph include degenerate curves and regions bounded by neutral surfaces in the domain. The edges in the graph denote the adjacency information between the regions and degenerate curves. In addition, we observe that a degenerate curve can be a loop and even a knot and that two degenerate curves (whether in the same region or not) can form a link. We provide a definition and theoretical analysis of individual degenerate curves in order to help understand why knots and links may occur. Moreover, we differentiate between wedges and trisectors, thus making the analysis more detailed about degenerate curves. We incorporate this information into the topological graph. Such a graph can not only reveal the global structure in a 3D symmetric tensor field but also allow two symmetric tensor fields to be compared. We demonstrate our approach by applying it to solid mechanics and material science data sets.
Blockchain technology is apt to facilitate the automation of multi-party cooperations among various players in a decentralized setting, especially in cases where trust among participants is limited. Transactions are stored in a ledger, a replica of which is retained by every node of the blockchain network. The operations saved thereby are thus publicly accessible. While this aspect enhances transparency, reliability, and persistence, it hinders the utilization of public blockchains for process automation as it violates typical confidentiality requirements in corporate settings. To overcome this issue, we propose our approach named Multi-Authority Approach to Transaction Systems for Interoperating Applications (MARTSIA). Based on Multi-Authority Attribute-Based Encryption (MA-ABE), MARTSIA enables read-access control over shared data at the level of message parts. User-defined policies determine whether an actor can interpret the publicly stored information or not, depending on the actor's attributes declared by a consortium of certifiers. Still, all nodes in the blockchain network can attest to the publication of the (encrypted) data. We provide a formal analysis of the security guarantees of MARTSIA, and illustrate the proof-of-concept implementation over multiple blockchain platforms. To demonstrate its interoperability, we showcase its usage in ensemble with a state-of-the-art blockchain-based engine for multi-party process execution, and three real-world decentralized applications in the context of NFT markets, supply chain, and retail.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is often an integral part of modern decision support systems (DSSs). The best-performing predictive models used in AI-based DSSs lack transparency. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) aims to create AI systems that can explain their rationale to human users. Local explanations in XAI can provide information about the causes of individual predictions in terms of feature importance. However, a critical drawback of existing local explanation methods is their inability to quantify the uncertainty associated with a feature's importance. This paper introduces an extension of a feature importance explanation method, Calibrated Explanations (CE), previously only supporting classification, with support for standard regression and probabilistic regression, i.e., the probability that the target is above an arbitrary threshold. The extension for regression keeps all the benefits of CE, such as calibration of the prediction from the underlying model with confidence intervals, uncertainty quantification of feature importance, and allows both factual and counterfactual explanations. CE for standard regression provides fast, reliable, stable, and robust explanations. CE for probabilistic regression provides an entirely new way of creating probabilistic explanations from any ordinary regression model and with a dynamic selection of thresholds. The performance of CE for probabilistic regression regarding stability and speed is comparable to LIME. The method is model agnostic with easily understood conditional rules. An implementation in Python is freely available on GitHub and for installation using pip making the results in this paper easily replicable.
Knowledge graphs represent factual knowledge about the world as relationships between concepts and are critical for intelligent decision making in enterprise applications. New knowledge is inferred from the existing facts in the knowledge graphs by encoding the concepts and relations into low-dimensional feature vector representations. The most effective representations for this task, called Knowledge Graph Embeddings (KGE), are learned through neural network architectures. Due to their impressive predictive performance, they are increasingly used in high-impact domains like healthcare, finance and education. However, are the black-box KGE models adversarially robust for use in domains with high stakes? This thesis argues that state-of-the-art KGE models are vulnerable to data poisoning attacks, that is, their predictive performance can be degraded by systematically crafted perturbations to the training knowledge graph. To support this argument, two novel data poisoning attacks are proposed that craft input deletions or additions at training time to subvert the learned model's performance at inference time. These adversarial attacks target the task of predicting the missing facts in knowledge graphs using KGE models, and the evaluation shows that the simpler attacks are competitive with or outperform the computationally expensive ones. The thesis contributions not only highlight and provide an opportunity to fix the security vulnerabilities of KGE models, but also help to understand the black-box predictive behaviour of KGE models.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) is widely used to learn a powerful representation of graph-structured data. Recent work demonstrates that transferring knowledge from self-supervised tasks to downstream tasks could further improve graph representation. However, there is an inherent gap between self-supervised tasks and downstream tasks in terms of optimization objective and training data. Conventional pre-training methods may be not effective enough on knowledge transfer since they do not make any adaptation for downstream tasks. To solve such problems, we propose a new transfer learning paradigm on GNNs which could effectively leverage self-supervised tasks as auxiliary tasks to help the target task. Our methods would adaptively select and combine different auxiliary tasks with the target task in the fine-tuning stage. We design an adaptive auxiliary loss weighting model to learn the weights of auxiliary tasks by quantifying the consistency between auxiliary tasks and the target task. In addition, we learn the weighting model through meta-learning. Our methods can be applied to various transfer learning approaches, it performs well not only in multi-task learning but also in pre-training and fine-tuning. Comprehensive experiments on multiple downstream tasks demonstrate that the proposed methods can effectively combine auxiliary tasks with the target task and significantly improve the performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Residual networks (ResNets) have displayed impressive results in pattern recognition and, recently, have garnered considerable theoretical interest due to a perceived link with neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs). This link relies on the convergence of network weights to a smooth function as the number of layers increases. We investigate the properties of weights trained by stochastic gradient descent and their scaling with network depth through detailed numerical experiments. We observe the existence of scaling regimes markedly different from those assumed in neural ODE literature. Depending on certain features of the network architecture, such as the smoothness of the activation function, one may obtain an alternative ODE limit, a stochastic differential equation or neither of these. These findings cast doubts on the validity of the neural ODE model as an adequate asymptotic description of deep ResNets and point to an alternative class of differential equations as a better description of the deep network limit.
The demand for artificial intelligence has grown significantly over the last decade and this growth has been fueled by advances in machine learning techniques and the ability to leverage hardware acceleration. However, in order to increase the quality of predictions and render machine learning solutions feasible for more complex applications, a substantial amount of training data is required. Although small machine learning models can be trained with modest amounts of data, the input for training larger models such as neural networks grows exponentially with the number of parameters. Since the demand for processing training data has outpaced the increase in computation power of computing machinery, there is a need for distributing the machine learning workload across multiple machines, and turning the centralized into a distributed system. These distributed systems present new challenges, first and foremost the efficient parallelization of the training process and the creation of a coherent model. This article provides an extensive overview of the current state-of-the-art in the field by outlining the challenges and opportunities of distributed machine learning over conventional (centralized) machine learning, discussing the techniques used for distributed machine learning, and providing an overview of the systems that are available.
Detecting carried objects is one of the requirements for developing systems to reason about activities involving people and objects. We present an approach to detect carried objects from a single video frame with a novel method that incorporates features from multiple scales. Initially, a foreground mask in a video frame is segmented into multi-scale superpixels. Then the human-like regions in the segmented area are identified by matching a set of extracted features from superpixels against learned features in a codebook. A carried object probability map is generated using the complement of the matching probabilities of superpixels to human-like regions and background information. A group of superpixels with high carried object probability and strong edge support is then merged to obtain the shape of the carried object. We applied our method to two challenging datasets, and results show that our method is competitive with or better than the state-of-the-art.