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Probabilistic graphical models are widely used to model complex systems with uncertainty. Traditionally, Gaussian directed graphical models are applied for analysis of large networks with continuous variables since they can provide conditional and marginal distributions in closed form simplifying the inferential task. The Gaussianity and linearity assumptions are often adequate, yet can lead to poor performance when dealing with some practical applications. In this paper, we model each variable in graph G as a polynomial regression of its parents to capture complex relationships between individual variables and with utility function of polynomial form. Since the marginal posterior distributions of individual variables can become analytically intractable, we develop a message-passing algorithm to propagate information throughout the network solely using moments which enables the expected utility scores to be calculated exactly. We illustrate how the proposed methodology works in a decision problem in energy systems planning.

Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) are a widely used framework for sequential decision-making under parameter uncertainty. RMDPs have been extensively studied when the objective is to maximize the discounted return, but little is known for average optimality (optimizing the long-run average of the rewards obtained over time) and Blackwell optimality (remaining discount optimal for all discount factors sufficiently close to 1). In this paper, we prove several foundational results for RMDPs beyond the discounted return. We show that average optimal policies can be chosen stationary and deterministic for sa-rectangular RMDPs but, perhaps surprisingly, that history-dependent (Markovian) policies strictly outperform stationary policies for average optimality in s-rectangular RMDPs. We also study Blackwell optimality for sa-rectangular RMDPs, where we show that {\em approximate} Blackwell optimal policies always exist, although Blackwell optimal policies may not exist. We also provide a sufficient condition for their existence, which encompasses virtually any examples from the literature. We then discuss the connection between average and Blackwell optimality, and we describe several algorithms to compute the optimal average return. Interestingly, our approach leverages the connections between RMDPs and stochastic games.

Sample selection models represent a common methodology for correcting bias induced by data missing not at random. It is well known that these models are not empirically identifiable without exclusion restrictions. In other words, some variables predictive of missingness do not affect the outcome model of interest. The drive to establish this requirement often leads to the inclusion of irrelevant variables in the model. A recent proposal uses adaptive LASSO to circumvent this problem, but its performance depends on the so-called covariance assumption, which can be violated in small to moderate samples. Additionally, there are no tools yet for post-selection inference for this model. To address these challenges, we propose two families of spike-and-slab priors to conduct Bayesian variable selection in sample selection models. These prior structures allow for constructing a Gibbs sampler with tractable conditionals, which is scalable to the dimensions of practical interest. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology through a simulation study and present a comparison against adaptive LASSO and stepwise selection. We also provide two applications using publicly available real data. An implementation and code to reproduce the results in this paper can be found at //github.com/adam-iqbal/selection-spike-slab

The Conformer has become the most popular encoder model for automatic speech recognition (ASR). It adds convolution modules to a transformer to learn both local and global dependencies. In this work we describe a faster, more memory-efficient, and better-performing transformer, called Zipformer. Modeling changes include: 1) a U-Net-like encoder structure where middle stacks operate at lower frame rates; 2) reorganized block structure with more modules, within which we re-use attention weights for efficiency; 3) a modified form of LayerNorm called BiasNorm allows us to retain some length information; 4) new activation functions SwooshR and SwooshL work better than Swish. We also propose a new optimizer, called ScaledAdam, which scales the update by each tensor's current scale to keep the relative change about the same, and also explictly learns the parameter scale. It achieves faster convergence and better performance than Adam. Extensive experiments on LibriSpeech, Aishell-1, and WenetSpeech datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed Zipformer over other state-of-the-art ASR models. Our code is publicly available at //github.com/k2-fsa/icefall.

We discuss probabilistic neural networks with a fixed internal representation as models for machine understanding. Here understanding is intended as mapping data to an already existing representation which encodes an {\em a priori} organisation of the feature space. We derive the internal representation by requiring that it satisfies the principles of maximal relevance and of maximal ignorance about how different features are combined. We show that, when hidden units are binary variables, these two principles identify a unique model -- the Hierarchical Feature Model (HFM) -- which is fully solvable and provides a natural interpretation in terms of features. We argue that learning machines with this architecture enjoy a number of interesting properties, like the continuity of the representation with respect to changes in parameters and data, the possibility to control the level of compression and the ability to support functions that go beyond generalisation. We explore the behaviour of the model with extensive numerical experiments and argue that models where the internal representation is fixed reproduce a learning modality which is qualitatively different from that of traditional models such as Restricted Boltzmann Machines.

Prediction models are popular in medical research and practice. By predicting an outcome of interest for specific patients, these models may help inform difficult treatment decisions, and are often hailed as the poster children for personalized, data-driven healthcare. We show however, that using prediction models for decision making can lead to harmful decisions, even when the predictions exhibit good discrimination after deployment. These models are harmful self-fulfilling prophecies: their deployment harms a group of patients but the worse outcome of these patients does not invalidate the predictive power of the model. Our main result is a formal characterization of a set of such prediction models. Next we show that models that are well calibrated before and after deployment are useless for decision making as they made no change in the data distribution. These results point to the need to revise standard practices for validation, deployment and evaluation of prediction models that are used in medical decisions.

Streaming models are an essential component of real-time speech enhancement tools. The streaming regime constrains speech enhancement models to use only a tiny context of future information. As a result, the low-latency streaming setup is generally considered a challenging task and has a significant negative impact on the model's quality. However, the sequential nature of streaming generation offers a natural possibility for autoregression, that is, utilizing previous predictions while making current ones. The conventional method for training autoregressive models is teacher forcing, but its primary drawback lies in the training-inference mismatch that can lead to a substantial degradation in quality. In this study, we propose a straightforward yet effective alternative technique for training autoregressive low-latency speech enhancement models. We demonstrate that the proposed approach leads to stable improvement across diverse architectures and training scenarios.

In the realm of machine learning, the data may contain additional attributes, known as privileged information (PI). The main purpose of PI is to assist in the training of the model and then utilize the acquired knowledge to make predictions for unseen samples. Support vector regression (SVR) is an effective regression model, however, it has a low learning speed due to solving a convex quadratic problem (QP) subject to a pair of constraints. In contrast, twin support vector regression (TSVR) is more efficient than SVR as it solves two QPs each subject to one set of constraints. However, TSVR and its variants are trained only on regular features and do not use privileged features for training. To fill this gap, we introduce a fusion of TSVR with learning using privileged information (LUPI) and propose a novel approach called twin support vector regression with privileged information (TSVR+). The regularization terms in the proposed TSVR+ capture the essence of statistical learning theory and implement the structural risk minimization principle. We use the successive overrelaxation (SOR) technique to solve the optimization problem of the proposed TSVR+, which enhances the training efficiency. As far as our knowledge extends, the integration of the LUPI concept into twin variants of regression models is a novel advancement. The numerical experiments conducted on UCI, stock and time series data collectively demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model.

Most often, virtual acoustic rendering employs real-time updated room acoustic simulations to accomplish auralization for a variable listener perspective. As an alternative, we propose and test a technique to interpolate room impulse responses, specifically Ambisonic room impulse responses (ARIRs) available at a grid of spatially distributed receiver perspectives, measured or simulated in a desired acoustic environment. In particular, we extrapolate a triplet of neighboring ARIRs to the variable listener perspective, preceding their linear interpolation. The extrapolation is achieved by decomposing each ARIR into localized sound events and re-assigning their direction, time, and level to what could be observed at the listener perspective, with as much temporal, directional, and perspective context as possible. We propose to undertake this decomposition in two levels: Peaks in the early ARIRs are decomposed into jointly localized sound events, based on time differences of arrival observed in either an ARIR triplet, or all ARIRs observing the direct sound. Sound events that could not be jointly localized are treated as residuals whose less precise localization utilizes direction-of-arrival detection and the estimated time of arrival. For the interpolated rendering, suitable parameter settings are found by evaluating the proposed method in a listening experiment, using both measured and simulated ARIR data sets, under static and time-varying conditions.

In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We can increase scalability by implementing the system as a distributed task-allocation system, sharing tasks across many agents. However, this also increases the resource cost of communications and synchronisation, and is difficult to scale. In this paper we present four algorithms to solve these problems. The combination of these algorithms enable each agent to improve their task allocation strategy through reinforcement learning, while changing how much they explore the system in response to how optimal they believe their current strategy is, given their past experience. We focus on distributed agent systems where the agents' behaviours are constrained by resource usage limits, limiting agents to local rather than system-wide knowledge. We evaluate these algorithms in a simulated environment where agents are given a task composed of multiple subtasks that must be allocated to other agents with differing capabilities, to then carry out those tasks. We also simulate real-life system effects such as networking instability. Our solution is shown to solve the task allocation problem to 6.7% of the theoretical optimal within the system configurations considered. It provides 5x better performance recovery over no-knowledge retention approaches when system connectivity is impacted, and is tested against systems up to 100 agents with less than a 9% impact on the algorithms' performance.