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Model ensembles are simple and effective tools for estimating the prediction uncertainty of deep learning atomistic force fields. Despite this, widespread adoption of ensemble-based uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques is limited by the high computational costs incurred by ensembles during both training and inference. In this work we leverage the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of per-sample errors obtained over the course of training to efficiently represent the model ensemble, and couple them with a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Using these tools, we develop a simple UQ metric (which we call LTAU) that leverages the strengths of ensemble-based techniques without requiring the evaluation of multiple models during either training or inference. As an initial test, we apply our method towards estimating the epistemic uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF) and demonstrate that it can be easily calibrated to accurately predict test errors on multiple datasets from the literature. We then illustrate the utility of LTAU-FF in two practical applications: 1) tuning the training-validation gap for an example dataset, and 2) predicting errors in relaxation trajectories on the OC20 IS2RS task. Though in this work we focus on the use of LTAU with deep learning atomistic force fields, we emphasize that it can be readily applied to any regression task, or any ensemble-generation technique, to provide a reliable and easy-to-implement UQ metric.

Predictive multiplicity refers to the phenomenon in which classification tasks may admit multiple competing models that achieve almost-equally-optimal performance, yet generate conflicting outputs for individual samples. This presents significant concerns, as it can potentially result in systemic exclusion, inexplicable discrimination, and unfairness in practical applications. Measuring and mitigating predictive multiplicity, however, is computationally challenging due to the need to explore all such almost-equally-optimal models, known as the Rashomon set, in potentially huge hypothesis spaces. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework that utilizes dropout techniques for exploring models in the Rashomon set. We provide rigorous theoretical derivations to connect the dropout parameters to properties of the Rashomon set, and empirically evaluate our framework through extensive experimentation. Numerical results show that our technique consistently outperforms baselines in terms of the effectiveness of predictive multiplicity metric estimation, with runtime speedup up to $20\times \sim 5000\times$. With efficient Rashomon set exploration and metric estimation, mitigation of predictive multiplicity is then achieved through dropout ensemble and model selection.

Propagating state distributions through a generic, uncertain nonlinear dynamical model is known to be intractable and usually begets numerical or analytical approximations. We introduce a method for state prediction, called the Expansion-Compression Unscented Transform, and use it to solve a class of online policy optimization problems. Our proposed algorithm propagates a finite number of sigma points through a state-dependent distribution, which dictates an increase in the number of sigma points at each time step to represent the resulting distribution; this is what we call the expansion operation. To keep the algorithm scalable, we augment the expansion operation with a compression operation based on moment matching, thereby keeping the number of sigma points constant across predictions over multiple time steps. Its performance is empirically shown to be comparable to Monte Carlo but at a much lower computational cost. Under state and control input constraints, the state prediction is subsequently used in tandem with a proposed variant of constrained gradient-descent for online update of policy parameters in a receding horizon fashion. The framework is implemented as a differentiable computational graph for policy training. We showcase our framework for a quadrotor stabilization task as part of a benchmark comparison in safe-control-gym and for optimizing the parameters of a Control Barrier Function based controller in a leader-follower problem.

Data sonification-mapping data variables to auditory variables, such as pitch or volume-is used for data accessibility, scientific exploration, and data-driven art (e.g., museum exhibitions) among others. While a substantial amount of research has been made on effective and intuitive sonification design, software support is not commensurate, limiting researchers from fully exploring its capabilities. We contribute Erie, a declarative grammar for data sonification, that enables abstractly expressing auditory mappings. Erie supports specifying extensible tone designs (e.g., periodic wave, sampling, frequency/amplitude modulation synthesizers), various encoding channels, auditory legends, and composition options like sequencing and overlaying. Using standard Web Audio and Web Speech APIs, we provide an Erie compiler for web environments. We demonstrate the expressiveness and feasibility of Erie by replicating research prototypes presented by prior work and provide a sonification design gallery. We discuss future steps to extend Erie toward other audio computing environments and support interactive data sonification.

State-space models are a low-complexity alternative to transformers for encoding long sequences and capturing long-term dependencies. We propose LOCOST: an encoder-decoder architecture based on state-space models for conditional text generation with long context inputs. With a computational complexity of $O(L \log L)$, this architecture can handle significantly longer sequences than state-of-the-art models that are based on sparse attention patterns. We evaluate our model on a series of long document abstractive summarization tasks. The model reaches a performance level that is 93-96% comparable to the top-performing sparse transformers of the same size while saving up to 50% memory during training and up to 87% during inference. Additionally, LOCOST effectively handles input texts exceeding 600K tokens at inference time, setting new state-of-the-art results on full-book summarization and opening new perspectives for long input processing.

The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.

Traffic forecasting is an important factor for the success of intelligent transportation systems. Deep learning models including convolution neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been applied in traffic forecasting problems to model the spatial and temporal dependencies. In recent years, to model the graph structures in the transportation systems as well as the contextual information, graph neural networks (GNNs) are introduced as new tools and have achieved the state-of-the-art performance in a series of traffic forecasting problems. In this survey, we review the rapidly growing body of recent research using different GNNs, e.g., graph convolutional and graph attention networks, in various traffic forecasting problems, e.g., road traffic flow and speed forecasting, passenger flow forecasting in urban rail transit systems, demand forecasting in ride-hailing platforms, etc. We also present a collection of open data and source resources for each problem, as well as future research directions. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first comprehensive survey that explores the application of graph neural networks for traffic forecasting problems. We have also created a public Github repository to update the latest papers, open data and source resources.

Generative commonsense reasoning which aims to empower machines to generate sentences with the capacity of reasoning over a set of concepts is a critical bottleneck for text generation. Even the state-of-the-art pre-trained language generation models struggle at this task and often produce implausible and anomalous sentences. One reason is that they rarely consider incorporating the knowledge graph which can provide rich relational information among the commonsense concepts. To promote the ability of commonsense reasoning for text generation, we propose a novel knowledge graph augmented pre-trained language generation model KG-BART, which encompasses the complex relations of concepts through the knowledge graph and produces more logical and natural sentences as output. Moreover, KG-BART can leverage the graph attention to aggregate the rich concept semantics that enhances the model generalization on unseen concept sets. Experiments on benchmark CommonGen dataset verify the effectiveness of our proposed approach by comparing with several strong pre-trained language generation models, particularly KG-BART outperforms BART by 5.80, 4.60, in terms of BLEU-3, 4. Moreover, we also show that the generated context by our model can work as background scenarios to benefit downstream commonsense QA tasks.

The design of deep graph models still remains to be investigated and the crucial part is how to explore and exploit the knowledge from different hops of neighbors in an efficient way. In this paper, we propose a novel RNN-like deep graph neural network architecture by incorporating AdaBoost into the computation of network; and the proposed graph convolutional network called AdaGCN~(AdaBoosting Graph Convolutional Network) has the ability to efficiently extract knowledge from high-order neighbors and integrate knowledge from different hops of neighbors into the network in an AdaBoost way. We also present the architectural difference between AdaGCN and existing graph convolutional methods to show the benefits of our proposal. Finally, extensive experiments demonstrate the state-of-the-art prediction performance and the computational advantage of our approach AdaGCN.

With the capability of modeling bidirectional contexts, denoising autoencoding based pretraining like BERT achieves better performance than pretraining approaches based on autoregressive language modeling. However, relying on corrupting the input with masks, BERT neglects dependency between the masked positions and suffers from a pretrain-finetune discrepancy. In light of these pros and cons, we propose XLNet, a generalized autoregressive pretraining method that (1) enables learning bidirectional contexts by maximizing the expected likelihood over all permutations of the factorization order and (2) overcomes the limitations of BERT thanks to its autoregressive formulation. Furthermore, XLNet integrates ideas from Transformer-XL, the state-of-the-art autoregressive model, into pretraining. Empirically, XLNet outperforms BERT on 20 tasks, often by a large margin, and achieves state-of-the-art results on 18 tasks including question answering, natural language inference, sentiment analysis, and document ranking.