Traditional AI approaches in customized (personalized) contextual pricing applications assume that the data distribution at the time of online pricing is similar to that observed during training. However, this assumption may be violated in practice because of the dynamic nature of customer buying patterns, particularly due to unanticipated system shocks such as COVID-19. We study the changes in customer behavior for a major airline during the COVID-19 pandemic by framing it as a covariate shift and concept drift detection problem. We identify which customers changed their travel and purchase behavior and the attributes affecting that change using (i) Fast Generalized Subset Scanning and (ii) Causal Forests. In our experiments with simulated and real-world data, we present how these two techniques can be used through qualitative analysis.
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Merge trees are a type of graph-based topological summary that tracks the evolution of connected components in the sublevel sets of scalar functions. They enjoy widespread applications in data analysis and scientific visualization. In this paper, we consider the problem of comparing two merge trees via the notion of interleaving distance in the metric space setting. We investigate various theoretical properties of such a metric. In particular, we show that the interleaving distance is intrinsic on the space of labeled merge trees and provide an algorithm to construct metric 1-centers for collections of labeled merge trees. We further prove that the intrinsic property of the interleaving distance also holds for the space of unlabeled merge trees. Our results are a first step toward performing statistics on graph-based topological summaries.
The effective control of the COVID-19 pandemic is one the most challenging issues of nowadays. The design of optimal control policies is perplexed from a variety of social, political, economical and epidemiological factors. Here, based on epidemiological data reported in recent studies for the Italian region of Lombardy, which experienced one of the largest and most devastating outbreaks in Europe during the first wave of the pandemic, we address a probabilistic model predictive control (PMPC) approach for the modelling and the systematic study of what if scenarios of the social distancing in a retrospective analysis for the first wave of the pandemic in Lombardy. The performance of the proposed PMPC scheme was assessed based on simulations of a compartmental model that was developed to quantify the uncertainty in the level of the asymptomatic cases in the population, and the synergistic effect of social distancing in various activities, and public awareness campaign prompting people to adopt cautious behaviors to reduce the risk of disease transmission. The PMPC scheme takes into account the social mixing effect, i.e. the effect of the various activities in the potential transmission of the disease. The proposed approach demonstrates the utility of a PMPC approach in addressing COVID-19 transmission and implementing public relaxation policies.
Deep models trained through maximum likelihood have achieved state-of-the-art results for survival analysis. Despite this training scheme, practitioners evaluate models under other criteria, such as binary classification losses at a chosen set of time horizons, e.g. Brier score (BS) and Bernoulli log likelihood (BLL). Models trained with maximum likelihood may have poor BS or BLL since maximum likelihood does not directly optimize these criteria. Directly optimizing criteria like BS requires inverse-weighting by the censoring distribution. However, estimating the censoring model under these metrics requires inverse-weighting by the failure distribution. The objective for each model requires the other, but neither are known. To resolve this dilemma, we introduce Inverse-Weighted Survival Games. In these games, objectives for each model are built from re-weighted estimates featuring the other model, where the latter is held fixed during training. When the loss is proper, we show that the games always have the true failure and censoring distributions as a stationary point. This means models in the game do not leave the correct distributions once reached. We construct one case where this stationary point is unique. We show that these games optimize BS on simulations and then apply these principles on real world cancer and critically-ill patient data.
Data integration is a classical problem in databases, typically decomposed into schema matching, entity matching and record merging. To solve the latter, it is mostly assumed that ground truth can be determined, either as master data or from user feedback. However, in many cases, this is not the case because firstly the merging processes cannot be accurate enough, and also the data gathering processes in the different sources are simply imperfect and cannot provide high quality data. Instead of enforcing consistency, we propose to evaluate how concordant or discordant sources are as a measure of trustworthiness (the more discordant are the sources, the less we can trust their data). Thus, we define the discord measurement problem in which given a set of uncertain raw observations or aggregate results (such as case/hospitalization/death data relevant to COVID-19) and information on the alignment of different data (for example, cases and deaths), we wish to assess whether the different sources are concordant, or if not, measure how discordant they are. We also define a set of algebraic operators to describe the alignments, together with two alternative relational implementations that reduce the problem to linear or quadratic programming. These are evaluated against both COVID-19 and synthetic data, and our experimental results show that discordancy measurement can be performed efficiently in realistic situations.
Collective risk dilemmas (CRDs) are a class of n-player games that represent societal challenges where groups need to coordinate to avoid the risk of a disastrous outcome. Multi-agent systems incurring such dilemmas face difficulties achieving cooperation and often converge to sub-optimal, risk-dominant solutions where everyone defects. In this paper we investigate the consequences of risk diversity in groups of agents learning to play CRDs. We find that risk diversity places new challenges to cooperation that are not observed in homogeneous groups. We show that increasing risk diversity significantly reduces overall cooperation and hinders collective target achievement. It leads to asymmetrical changes in agents' policies -- i.e. the increase in contributions from individuals at high risk is unable to compensate for the decrease in contributions from individuals at low risk -- which overall reduces the total contributions in a population. When comparing RL behaviors to rational individualistic and social behaviors, we find that RL populations converge to fairer contributions among agents. Our results highlight the need for aligning risk perceptions among agents or develop new learning techniques that explicitly account for risk diversity.
Random forests are considered one of the best out-of-the-box classification and regression algorithms due to their high level of predictive performance with relatively little tuning. Pairwise proximities can be computed from a trained random forest which measure the similarity between data points relative to the supervised task. Random forest proximities have been used in many applications including the identification of variable importance, data imputation, outlier detection, and data visualization. However, existing definitions of random forest proximities do not accurately reflect the data geometry learned by the random forest. In this paper, we introduce a novel definition of random forest proximities called Random Forest-Geometry- and Accuracy-Preserving proximities (RF-GAP). We prove that the proximity-weighted sum (regression) or majority vote (classification) using RF-GAP exactly match the out-of-bag random forest prediction, thus capturing the data geometry learned by the random forest. We empirically show that this improved geometric representation outperforms traditional random forest proximities in tasks such as data imputation and provides outlier detection and visualization results consistent with the learned data geometry.
We study the limits of linear modeling of swarm behavior by characterizing the inflection point beyond which linear models of swarm collective behavior break down. The problem we consider is a central place object gathering task. We design a linear model which strives to capture the underlying dynamics of object gathering in robot swarms from first principles, rather than extensively relying on post-hoc model fitting. We evaluate our model with swarms of up to 8,000 robots in simulation, demonstrating that it accurately captures underlying swarm behavioral dynamics when the swarm can be approximated using the mean-field model, and when it cannot, and finite-size effects are present. We further apply our model to swarms exhibiting non-linear behaviors, and show that it still provides accurate predictions in some scenarios, thereby establishing better practical limits on linear modeling of swarm behaviors.
The focus of disentanglement approaches has been on identifying independent factors of variation in data. However, the causal variables underlying real-world observations are often not statistically independent. In this work, we bridge the gap to real-world scenarios by analyzing the behavior of the most prominent disentanglement approaches on correlated data in a large-scale empirical study (including 4260 models). We show and quantify that systematically induced correlations in the dataset are being learned and reflected in the latent representations, which has implications for downstream applications of disentanglement such as fairness. We also demonstrate how to resolve these latent correlations, either using weak supervision during training or by post-hoc correcting a pre-trained model with a small number of labels.
Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is one of the fundamental tasks for e-commerce search engines. As search becomes more personalized, it is necessary to capture the user interest from rich behavior data. Existing user behavior modeling algorithms develop different attention mechanisms to emphasize query-relevant behaviors and suppress irrelevant ones. Despite being extensively studied, these attentions still suffer from two limitations. First, conventional attentions mostly limit the attention field only to a single user's behaviors, which is not suitable in e-commerce where users often hunt for new demands that are irrelevant to any historical behaviors. Second, these attentions are usually biased towards frequent behaviors, which is unreasonable since high frequency does not necessarily indicate great importance. To tackle the two limitations, we propose a novel attention mechanism, termed Kalman Filtering Attention (KFAtt), that considers the weighted pooling in attention as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. By incorporating a priori, KFAtt resorts to global statistics when few user behaviors are relevant. Moreover, a frequency capping mechanism is incorporated to correct the bias towards frequent behaviors. Offline experiments on both benchmark and a 10 billion scale real production dataset, together with an Online A/B test, show that KFAtt outperforms all compared state-of-the-arts. KFAtt has been deployed in the ranking system of a leading e commerce website, serving the main traffic of hundreds of millions of active users everyday.
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a devastating effect on the health and well-being of the global population. A critical step in the fight against COVID-19 is effective screening of infected patients, with one of the key screening approaches being radiological imaging using chest radiography. Motivated by this, a number of artificial intelligence (AI) systems based on deep learning have been proposed and results have been shown to be quite promising in terms of accuracy in detecting patients infected with COVID-19 using chest radiography images. However, to the best of the authors' knowledge, these developed AI systems have been closed source and unavailable to the research community for deeper understanding and extension, and unavailable for public access and use. Therefore, in this study we introduce COVID-Net, a deep convolutional neural network design tailored for the detection of COVID-19 cases from chest radiography images that is open source and available to the general public. We also describe the chest radiography dataset leveraged to train COVID-Net, which we will refer to as COVIDx and is comprised of 5941 posteroanterior chest radiography images across 2839 patient cases from two open access data repositories. Furthermore, we investigate how COVID-Net makes predictions using an explainability method in an attempt to gain deeper insights into critical factors associated with COVID cases, which can aid clinicians in improved screening. By no means a production-ready solution, the hope is that the open access COVID-Net, along with the description on constructing the open source COVIDx dataset, will be leveraged and build upon by both researchers and citizen data scientists alike to accelerate the development of highly accurate yet practical deep learning solutions for detecting COVID-19 cases and accelerate treatment of those who need it the most.
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