Traditional methods for inference in change point detection often rely on a large number of observed data points and can be inaccurate in non-asymptotic settings. With the rise of mobile health and digital phenotyping studies, where patients are monitored through the use of smartphones or other digital devices, change point detection is needed in non-asymptotic settings where it may be important to identify behavioral changes that occur just days before an adverse event such as relapse or suicide. Furthermore, analytical and computationally efficient means of inference are necessary for the monitoring and online analysis of large-scale digital phenotyping cohorts. We extend the result for asymptotic tail probabilities of the likelihood ratio test to the multivariate change point detection setting, and demonstrate through simulation its inaccuracy when the number of observed data points is not large. We propose a non-asymptotic approach for inference on the likelihood ratio test, and compare the efficiency of this estimated p-value to the popular empirical p-value obtained through simulation of the null distribution. The accuracy and power of this approach relative to competing methods is demonstrated through simulation and through the detection of a change point in the behavior of a patient with schizophrenia in the week prior to relapse.
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In order to achieve unbiased and efficient estimators of causal effects from observational data, covariate selection for confounding adjustment becomes an important task in causal inference. Despite recent advancements in graphical criterion for constructing valid and efficient adjustment sets, these methods often rely on assumptions that may not hold in practice. We examine the properties of existing graph-free covariate selection methods with respect to both validity and efficiency, highlighting the potential dangers of producing invalid adjustment sets when hidden variables are present. To address this issue, we propose a novel graph-free method, referred to as CMIO, adapted from Mixed Integer Optimization (MIO) with a set of causal constraints. Our results demonstrate that CMIO outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods and provides theoretically sound outputs. Furthermore, we present a revised version of CMIO capable of handling the scenario in the absence of causal sufficiency and graphical information, offering efficient and valid covariate adjustments for causal inference.
In this paper we study online change point detection in dynamic networks with time heterogeneous missing pattern within networks and dependence across the time course. The missingness probabilities, the entrywise sparsity of networks, the rank of networks and the jump size in terms of the Frobenius norm, are all allowed to vary as functions of the pre-change sample size. On top of a thorough handling of all the model parameters, we notably allow the edges and missingness to be dependent. To the best of our knowledge, such general framework has not been rigorously nor systematically studied before in the literature. We propose a polynomial time change point detection algorithm, with a version of soft-impute algorithm (e.g. Mazumder et al., 2010; Klopp, 2015) as the imputation sub-routine. Piecing up these standard sub-routines algorithms, we are able to solve a brand new problem with sharp detection delay subject to an overall Type-I error control. Extensive numerical experiments are conducted demonstrating the outstanding performances of our proposed method in practice.
We consider a path guarding problem in dynamic Defender-Attacker Blotto games (dDAB), where a team of robots must defend a path in a graph against adversarial agents. Multi-robot systems are particularly well suited to this application, as recent work has shown the effectiveness of these systems in related areas such as perimeter defense and surveillance. When designing a defender policy that guarantees the defense of a path, information about the adversary and the environment can be helpful and may reduce the number of resources required by the defender to achieve a sufficient level of security. In this work, we characterize the necessary and sufficient number of assets needed to guarantee the defense of a shortest path between two nodes in dDAB games when the defender can only detect assets within $k$-hops of a shortest path. By characterizing the relationship between sensing horizon and required resources, we show that increasing the sensing capability of the defender greatly reduces the number of defender assets needed to defend the path.
This paper studies the online node classification problem under a transductive learning setting. Current methods either invert a graph kernel matrix with $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$ runtime and $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ space complexity or sample a large volume of random spanning trees, thus are difficult to scale to large graphs. In this work, we propose an improvement based on the \textit{online relaxation} technique introduced by a series of works (Rakhlin et al.,2012; Rakhlin and Sridharan, 2015; 2017). We first prove an effective regret $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{n^{1+\gamma}})$ when suitable parameterized graph kernels are chosen, then propose an approximate algorithm FastONL enjoying $\mathcal{O}(k\sqrt{n^{1+\gamma}})$ regret based on this relaxation. The key of FastONL is a \textit{generalized local push} method that effectively approximates inverse matrix columns and applies to a series of popular kernels. Furthermore, the per-prediction cost is $\mathcal{O}(\text{vol}({\mathcal{S}})\log 1/\epsilon)$ locally dependent on the graph with linear memory cost. Experiments show that our scalable method enjoys a better tradeoff between local and global consistency.
Cross-validation is the standard approach for tuning parameter selection in many non-parametric regression problems. However its use is less common in change-point regression, perhaps as its prediction error-based criterion may appear to permit small spurious changes and hence be less well-suited to estimation of the number and location of change-points. We show that in fact the problems of cross-validation with squared error loss are more severe and can lead to systematic under- or over-estimation of the number of change-points, and highly suboptimal estimation of the mean function in simple settings where changes are easily detectable. We propose two simple approaches to remedy these issues, the first involving the use of absolute error rather than squared error loss, and the second involving modifying the holdout sets used. For the latter, we provide conditions that permit consistent estimation of the number of change-points for a general change-point estimation procedure. We show these conditions are satisfied for optimal partitioning using new results on its performance when supplied with the incorrect number of change-points. Numerical experiments show that the absolute error approach in particular is competitive with common change-point methods using classical tuning parameter choices when error distributions are well-specified, but can substantially outperform these in misspecified models. An implementation of our methodology is available in the R package crossvalidationCP on CRAN.
This paper presents a dataset containing recordings of the electroencephalogram (EEG) and the electromyogram (EMG) from eight subjects who were assisted in moving their right arm by an active orthosis device. The supported movements were elbow joint movements, i.e., flexion and extension of the right arm. While the orthosis was actively moving the subject's arm, some errors were deliberately introduced for a short duration of time. During this time, the orthosis moved in the opposite direction. In this paper, we explain the experimental setup and present some behavioral analyses across all subjects. Additionally, we present an average event-related potential analysis for one subject to offer insights into the data quality and the EEG activity caused by the error introduction. The dataset described herein is openly accessible. The aim of this study was to provide a dataset to the research community, particularly for the development of new methods in the asynchronous detection of erroneous events from the EEG. We are especially interested in the tactile and haptic-mediated recognition of errors, which has not yet been sufficiently investigated in the literature. We hope that the detailed description of the orthosis and the experiment will enable its reproduction and facilitate a systematic investigation of the influencing factors in the detection of erroneous behavior of assistive systems by a large community.
Sampling-based planning algorithm is a powerful tool for solving planning problems in high-dimensional state spaces. In this article, we present a novel approach to sampling in the most promising regions, which significantly reduces planning time-consumption. The RRT# algorithm defines the Relevant Region based on the cost-to-come provided by the optimal forward-searching tree. However, it uses the cumulative cost of a direct connection between the current state and the goal state as the cost-to-go. To improve the path planning efficiency, we propose a batch sampling method that samples in a refined Relevant Region with a direct sampling strategy, which is defined according to the optimal cost-to-come and the adaptive cost-to-go, taking advantage of various sources of heuristic information. The proposed sampling approach allows the algorithm to build the search tree in the direction of the most promising area, resulting in a superior initial solution quality and reducing the overall computation time compared to related work. To validate the effectiveness of our method, we conducted several simulations in both $SE(2)$ and $SE(3)$ state spaces. And the simulation results demonstrate the superiorities of proposed algorithm.
Personalized privacy becomes critical in deep learning for Trustworthy AI. While Differentially Private Stochastic Gradient Descent (DP-SGD) is widely used in deep learning methods supporting privacy, it provides the same level of privacy to all individuals, which may lead to overprotection and low utility. In practice, different users may require different privacy levels, and the model can be improved by using more information about the users with lower privacy requirements. There are also recent works on differential privacy of individuals when using DP-SGD, but they are mostly about individual privacy accounting and do not focus on satisfying different privacy levels. We thus extend DP-SGD to support a recent privacy notion called ($\Phi$,$\Delta$)-Personalized Differential Privacy (($\Phi$,$\Delta$)-PDP), which extends an existing PDP concept called $\Phi$-PDP. Our algorithm uses a multi-round personalized sampling mechanism and embeds it within the DP-SGD iterations. Experiments on real datasets show that our algorithm outperforms DP-SGD and simple combinations of DP-SGD with existing PDP mechanisms in terms of model performance and efficiency due to its embedded sampling mechanism.
We study the change point detection problem for high-dimensional linear regression models. The existing literature mainly focused on the change point estimation with stringent sub-Gaussian assumptions on the errors. In practice, however, there is no prior knowledge about the existence of a change point or the tail structures of errors. To address these issues, in this paper, we propose a novel tail-adaptive approach for simultaneous change point testing and estimation. The method is built on a new loss function which is a weighted combination between the composite quantile and least squared losses, allowing us to borrow information of the possible change points from both the conditional mean and quantiles. For the change point testing, based on the adjusted $L_2$-norm aggregation of a weighted score CUSUM process, we propose a family of individual testing statistics with different weights to account for the unknown tail structures. Combining the individual tests, a tail-adaptive test is further constructed that is powerful for sparse alternatives of regression coefficients' changes under various tail structures. For the change point estimation, a family of argmax-based individual estimators is proposed once a change point is detected. In theory, for both individual and tail-adaptive tests, the bootstrap procedures are proposed to approximate their limiting null distributions. Under some mild conditions, we justify the validity of the new tests in terms of size and power under the high-dimensional setup. The corresponding change point estimators are shown to be rate optimal up to a logarithm factor. Moreover, combined with the wild binary segmentation technique, a new algorithm is proposed to detect multiple change points in a tail-adaptive manner. Extensive numerical results are conducted to illustrate the appealing performance of the proposed method.
Software built on top of machine learning algorithms is becoming increasingly prevalent in a variety of fields, including college admissions, healthcare, insurance, and justice. The effectiveness and efficiency of these systems heavily depend on the quality of the training datasets. Biased datasets can lead to unfair and potentially harmful outcomes, particularly in such critical decision-making systems where the allocation of resources may be affected. This can exacerbate discrimination against certain groups and cause significant social disruption. To mitigate such unfairness, a series of bias-mitigating methods are proposed. Generally, these studies improve the fairness of the trained models to a certain degree but with the expense of sacrificing the model performance. In this paper, we propose FITNESS, a bias mitigation approach via de-correlating the causal effects between sensitive features (e.g., the sex) and the label. Our key idea is that by de-correlating such effects from a causality perspective, the model would avoid making predictions based on sensitive features and thus fairness could be improved. Furthermore, FITNESS leverages multi-objective optimization to achieve a better performance-fairness trade-off. To evaluate the effectiveness, we compare FITNESS with 7 state-of-the-art methods in 8 benchmark tasks by multiple metrics. Results show that FITNESS can outperform the state-of-the-art methods on bias mitigation while preserve the model's performance: it improved the model's fairness under all the scenarios while decreased the model's performance under only 26.67% of the scenarios. Additionally, FITNESS surpasses the Fairea Baseline in 96.72% cases, outperforming all methods we compared.
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