亚洲男人的天堂2018av,欧美草比,久久久久久免费视频精选,国色天香在线看免费,久久久久亚洲av成人片仓井空

We share a small connection between information theory, algebra, and topology - namely, a correspondence between Shannon entropy and derivations of the operad of topological simplices. We begin with a brief review of operads and their representations with topological simplices and the real line as the main example. We then give a general definition for a derivation of an operad in any category with values in an abelian bimodule over the operad. The main result is that Shannon entropy defines a derivation of the operad of topological simplices, and that for every derivation of this operad there exists a point at which it is given by a constant multiple of Shannon entropy. We show this is compatible with, and relies heavily on, a well-known characterization of entropy given by Faddeev in 1956 and a recent variation given by Leinster.

Crowdsourcing is being increasingly adopted as a platform to run studies with human subjects. Running a crowdsourcing experiment involves several choices and strategies to successfully port an experimental design into an otherwise uncontrolled research environment, e.g., sampling crowd workers, mapping experimental conditions to micro-tasks, or ensure quality contributions. While several guidelines inform researchers in these choices, guidance of how and what to report from crowdsourcing experiments has been largely overlooked. If under-reported, implementation choices constitute variability sources that can affect the experiment's reproducibility and prevent a fair assessment of research outcomes. In this paper, we examine the current state of reporting of crowdsourcing experiments and offer guidance to address associated reporting issues. We start by identifying sensible implementation choices, relying on existing literature and interviews with experts, to then extensively analyze the reporting of 171 crowdsourcing experiments. Informed by this process, we propose a checklist for reporting crowdsourcing experiments.

The principle of maximum entropy is a broadly applicable technique for computing a distribution with the least amount of information possible while commonly constrained to match empirically estimated feature expectations. We seek to generalize this principle to scenarios where the empirical feature expectations cannot be computed because the model variables are only partially observed, which introduces a dependency on the learned model. Extending and generalizing the principle of latent maximum entropy, we introduce uncertain maximum entropy and describe an expectation-maximization based solution to approximately solve these problems. We show that our technique generalizes the principle of maximum entropy and latent maximum entropy and discuss a generally applicable regularization technique for adding error terms to feature expectation constraints in the event of limited data.

We study data-driven decision-making problems in the Bayesian framework, where the expectation in the Bayes risk is replaced by a risk-sensitive entropic risk measure. We focus on problems where calculating the posterior distribution is intractable, a typical situation in modern applications with large datasets and complex data generating models. We leverage a dual representation of the entropic risk measure to introduce a novel risk-sensitive variational Bayesian (RSVB) framework for jointly computing a risk-sensitive posterior approximation and the corresponding decision rule. The proposed RSVB framework can be used to extract computational methods for doing risk-sensitive approximate Bayesian inference. We show that our general framework includes two well-known computational methods for doing approximate Bayesian inference viz. naive VB and loss-calibrated VB. We also study the impact of these computational approximations on the predictive performance of the inferred decision rules and values. We compute the convergence rates of the RSVB approximate posterior and also of the corresponding optimal value and decision rules. We illustrate our theoretical findings in both parametric and nonparametric settings with the help of three examples: the single and multi-product newsvendor model and Gaussian process classification.

Insights into complex, high-dimensional data can be obtained by discovering features of the data that match or do not match a model of interest. To formalize this task, we introduce the "data selection" problem: finding a lower-dimensional statistic - such as a subset of variables - that is well fit by a given parametric model of interest. A fully Bayesian approach to data selection would be to parametrically model the value of the statistic, nonparametrically model the remaining "background" components of the data, and perform standard Bayesian model selection for the choice of statistic. However, fitting a nonparametric model to high-dimensional data tends to be highly inefficient, statistically and computationally. We propose a novel score for performing both data selection and model selection, the "Stein volume criterion", that takes the form of a generalized marginal likelihood with a kernelized Stein discrepancy in place of the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The Stein volume criterion does not require one to fit or even specify a nonparametric background model, making it straightforward to compute - in many cases it is as simple as fitting the parametric model of interest with an alternative objective function. We prove that the Stein volume criterion is consistent for both data selection and model selection, and we establish consistency and asymptotic normality (Bernstein-von Mises) of the corresponding generalized posterior on parameters. We validate our method in simulation and apply it to the analysis of single-cell RNA sequencing datasets using probabilistic principal components analysis and a spin glass model of gene regulation.

The problem of constructing a simultaneous confidence band for the mean function of a locally stationary functional time series $ \{ X_{i,n} (t) \}_{i = 1, \ldots, n}$ is challenging as these bands can not be built on classical limit theory. On the one hand, for a fixed argument $t$ of the functions $ X_{i,n}$, the maximum absolute deviation between an estimate and the time dependent regression function exhibits (after appropriate standardization) an extreme value behaviour with a Gumbel distribution in the limit. On the other hand, for stationary functional data, simultaneous confidence bands can be built on classical central theorems for Banach space valued random variables and the limit distribution of the maximum absolute deviation is given by the sup-norm of a Gaussian process. As both limit theorems have different rates of convergence, they are not compatible, and a weak convergence result, which could be used for the construction of a confidence surface in the locally stationary case, does not exist. In this paper we propose new bootstrap methodology to construct a simultaneous confidence band for the mean function of a locally stationary functional time series, which is motivated by a Gaussian approximation for the maximum absolute deviation. We prove the validity of our approach by asymptotic theory, demonstrate good finite sample properties by means of a simulation study and illustrate its applicability analyzing a data example.

Uncertainty quantification is a fundamental problem in the analysis and interpretation of synthetic control (SC) methods. We develop conditional prediction intervals in the SC framework, and provide conditions under which these intervals offer finite-sample probability guarantees. Our method allows for covariate adjustment and non-stationary data. The construction begins by noting that the statistical uncertainty of the SC prediction is governed by two distinct sources of randomness: one coming from the construction of the (likely misspecified) SC weights in the pre-treatment period, and the other coming from the unobservable stochastic error in the post-treatment period when the treatment effect is analyzed. Accordingly, our proposed prediction intervals are constructed taking into account both sources of randomness. For implementation, we propose a simulation-based approach along with finite-sample-based probability bound arguments, naturally leading to principled sensitivity analysis methods. We illustrate the numerical performance of our methods using empirical applications and a small simulation study. \texttt{Python}, \texttt{R} and \texttt{Stata} software packages implementing our methodology are available.

The Multi-valued Action Reasoning System (MARS) is an automated value-based ethical decision-making model for artificial agents (AI). Given a set of available actions and an underlying moral paradigm, by employing MARS one can identify the ethically preferred action. It can be used to implement and model different ethical theories, different moral paradigms, as well as combinations of such, in the context of automated practical reasoning and normative decision analysis. It can also be used to model moral dilemmas and discover the moral paradigms that result in the desired outcomes therein. In this paper, we give a condensed description of MARS, explain its uses, and comparatively place it in the existing literature.

This is a review of "The Book of Why", by Judea Pearl.

The concept of Fisher information can be useful even in cases where the probability distributions of interest are not absolutely continuous with respect to the natural reference measure on the underlying space. Practical examples where this extension is useful are provided in the context of multi-object tracking statistical models. Upon defining the Fisher information without introducing a reference measure, we provide remarkably concise proofs of the loss of Fisher information in some widely used multi-object tracking observation models.