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Reinforcement learning can learn amortised design policies for designing sequences of experiments. However, current amortised methods rely on estimators of expected information gain (EIG) that require an exponential number of samples on the magnitude of the EIG to achieve an unbiased estimation. We propose the use of an alternative estimator based on the cross-entropy of the joint model distribution and a flexible proposal distribution. This proposal distribution approximates the true posterior of the model parameters given the experimental history and the design policy. Our method overcomes the exponential-sample complexity of previous approaches and provide more accurate estimates of high EIG values. More importantly, it allows learning of superior design policies, and is compatible with continuous and discrete design spaces, non-differentiable likelihoods and even implicit probabilistic models.

This paper considers the problem of constructing a confidence sequence, which is a sequence of confidence intervals that hold uniformly over time, for estimating the mean of bounded real-valued random processes. This paper revisits the gambling-based approach established in the recent literature from a natural \emph{two-horse race} perspective, and demonstrates new properties of the resulting algorithm induced by Cover (1991)'s universal portfolio. The main result of this paper is a new algorithm based on a mixture of lower bounds, which closely approximates the performance of Cover's universal portfolio with constant per-round time complexity. A higher-order generalization of a lower bound on a logarithmic function in (Fan et al., 2015), which is developed as a key technique for the proposed algorithm, may be of independent interest.

This paper presents a groundbreaking approach to causal inference by integrating continuous normalizing flows (CNFs) with parametric submodels, enhancing their geometric sensitivity and improving upon traditional Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE). Our method employs CNFs to refine TMLE, optimizing the Cram\'er-Rao bound and transitioning from a predefined distribution $p_0$ to a data-driven distribution $p_1$. We innovate further by embedding Wasserstein gradient flows within Fokker-Planck equations, thus imposing geometric structures that boost the robustness of CNFs, particularly in optimal transport theory. Our approach addresses the disparity between sample and population distributions, a critical factor in parameter estimation bias. We leverage optimal transport and Wasserstein gradient flows to develop causal inference methodologies with minimal variance in finite-sample settings, outperforming traditional methods like TMLE and AIPW. This novel framework, centered on Wasserstein gradient flows, minimizes variance in efficient influence functions under distribution $p_t$. Preliminary experiments showcase our method's superiority, yielding lower mean-squared errors compared to standard flows, thereby demonstrating the potential of geometry-aware normalizing Wasserstein flows in advancing statistical modeling and inference.

Quantifying uncertainty in automatically generated text is important for letting humans check potential hallucinations and making systems more reliable. Conformal prediction is an attractive framework to provide predictions imbued with statistical guarantees, however, its application to text generation is challenging since any i.i.d. assumptions are not realistic. In this paper, we bridge this gap by leveraging recent results on non-exchangeable conformal prediction, which still ensures bounds on coverage. The result, non-exchangeable conformal nucleus sampling, is a novel extension of the conformal prediction framework to generation based on nearest neighbors. Our method can be used post-hoc for an arbitrary model without extra training and supplies token-level, calibrated prediction sets equipped with statistical guarantees. Experiments in machine translation and language modeling show encouraging results in generation quality. By also producing tighter prediction sets with good coverage, we thus give a more theoretically principled way to perform sampling with conformal guarantees.

This paper describes continuous-space methodologies to estimate the collision probability, Euclidean distance and gradient between an ellipsoidal robot model and an environment surface modeled as a set of Gaussian distributions. Continuous-space collision probability estimation is critical for uncertainty-aware motion planning. Most collision detection and avoidance approaches assume the robot is modeled as a sphere, but ellipsoidal representations provide tighter approximations and enable navigation in cluttered and narrow spaces. State-of-the-art methods derive the Euclidean distance and gradient by processing raw point clouds, which is computationally expensive for large workspaces. Recent advances in Gaussian surface modeling (e.g. mixture models, splatting) enable compressed and high-fidelity surface representations. Few methods exist to estimate continuous-space occupancy from such models. They require Gaussians to model free space and are unable to estimate the collision probability, Euclidean distance and gradient for an ellipsoidal robot. The proposed methods bridge this gap by extending prior work in ellipsoid-to-ellipsoid Euclidean distance and collision probability estimation to Gaussian surface models. A geometric blending approach is also proposed to improve collision probability estimation. The approaches are evaluated with numerical 2D and 3D experiments using real-world point cloud data.

This paper surveys the field of transfer learning in the problem setting of Reinforcement Learning (RL). RL has been the key solution to sequential decision-making problems. Along with the fast advance of RL in various domains. including robotics and game-playing, transfer learning arises as an important technique to assist RL by leveraging and transferring external expertise to boost the learning process. In this survey, we review the central issues of transfer learning in the RL domain, providing a systematic categorization of its state-of-the-art techniques. We analyze their goals, methodologies, applications, and the RL frameworks under which these transfer learning techniques would be approachable. We discuss the relationship between transfer learning and other relevant topics from an RL perspective and also explore the potential challenges as well as future development directions for transfer learning in RL.

Representation learning on a knowledge graph (KG) is to embed entities and relations of a KG into low-dimensional continuous vector spaces. Early KG embedding methods only pay attention to structured information encoded in triples, which would cause limited performance due to the structure sparseness of KGs. Some recent attempts consider paths information to expand the structure of KGs but lack explainability in the process of obtaining the path representations. In this paper, we propose a novel Rule and Path-based Joint Embedding (RPJE) scheme, which takes full advantage of the explainability and accuracy of logic rules, the generalization of KG embedding as well as the supplementary semantic structure of paths. Specifically, logic rules of different lengths (the number of relations in rule body) in the form of Horn clauses are first mined from the KG and elaborately encoded for representation learning. Then, the rules of length 2 are applied to compose paths accurately while the rules of length 1 are explicitly employed to create semantic associations among relations and constrain relation embeddings. Besides, the confidence level of each rule is also considered in optimization to guarantee the availability of applying the rule to representation learning. Extensive experimental results illustrate that RPJE outperforms other state-of-the-art baselines on KG completion task, which also demonstrate the superiority of utilizing logic rules as well as paths for improving the accuracy and explainability of representation learning.

Knowledge graph embedding, which aims to represent entities and relations as low dimensional vectors (or matrices, tensors, etc.), has been shown to be a powerful technique for predicting missing links in knowledge graphs. Existing knowledge graph embedding models mainly focus on modeling relation patterns such as symmetry/antisymmetry, inversion, and composition. However, many existing approaches fail to model semantic hierarchies, which are common in real-world applications. To address this challenge, we propose a novel knowledge graph embedding model---namely, Hierarchy-Aware Knowledge Graph Embedding (HAKE)---which maps entities into the polar coordinate system. HAKE is inspired by the fact that concentric circles in the polar coordinate system can naturally reflect the hierarchy. Specifically, the radial coordinate aims to model entities at different levels of the hierarchy, and entities with smaller radii are expected to be at higher levels; the angular coordinate aims to distinguish entities at the same level of the hierarchy, and these entities are expected to have roughly the same radii but different angles. Experiments demonstrate that HAKE can effectively model the semantic hierarchies in knowledge graphs, and significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods on benchmark datasets for the link prediction task.

Incompleteness is a common problem for existing knowledge graphs (KGs), and the completion of KG which aims to predict links between entities is challenging. Most existing KG completion methods only consider the direct relation between nodes and ignore the relation paths which contain useful information for link prediction. Recently, a few methods take relation paths into consideration but pay less attention to the order of relations in paths which is important for reasoning. In addition, these path-based models always ignore nonlinear contributions of path features for link prediction. To solve these problems, we propose a novel KG completion method named OPTransE. Instead of embedding both entities of a relation into the same latent space as in previous methods, we project the head entity and the tail entity of each relation into different spaces to guarantee the order of relations in the path. Meanwhile, we adopt a pooling strategy to extract nonlinear and complex features of different paths to further improve the performance of link prediction. Experimental results on two benchmark datasets show that the proposed model OPTransE performs better than state-of-the-art methods.

Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis.