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Multilevel linear models allow flexible statistical modelling of complex data with different levels of stratification. Identifying the most appropriate model from the large set of possible candidates is a challenging problem. In the Bayesian setting, the standard approach is a comparison of models using the model evidence or the Bayes factor. Explicit expressions for these quantities are available for simple linear models, but in most cases, direct computation is impossible. In practice, Markov Chain Monte Carlo approaches are widely used, such as sequential Monte Carlo, but it is not always clear how well such techniques perform. We present a method for estimation of the log model evidence, by an intermediate marginalisation over non-variance parameters. This reduces the dimensionality of the Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, which in turn yields more consistent estimates. The aim of this paper is to show how this framework fits together and works in practice, particularly on data with hierarchical structure. We illustrate this method on a popular multilevel dataset containing levels of radon in homes in the US state of Minnesota.

Low-rank approximation is a popular strategy to tackle the "big n problem" associated with large-scale Gaussian process regressions. Basis functions for developing low-rank structures are crucial and should be carefully specified. Predictive processes simplify the problem by inducing basis functions with a covariance function and a set of knots. The existing literature suggests certain practical implementations of knot selection and covariance estimation; however, theoretical foundations explaining the influence of these two factors on predictive processes are lacking. In this paper, the asymptotic prediction performance of the predictive process and Gaussian process predictions is derived and the impacts of the selected knots and estimated covariance are studied. We suggest the use of support points as knots, which best represent data locations. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the superiority of support points and verify our theoretical results. Real data of precipitation and ozone are used as examples, and the efficiency of our method over other widely used low-rank approximation methods is verified.

Unbiased Learning to Rank~(ULTR) that learns to rank documents with biased user feedback data is a well-known challenge in information retrieval. Existing methods in unbiased learning to rank typically rely on click modeling or inverse propensity weighting~(IPW). Unfortunately, the search engines are faced with severe long-tail query distribution, where neither click modeling nor IPW can handle well. Click modeling suffers from data sparsity problem since the same query-document pair appears limited times on tail queries; IPW suffers from high variance problem since it is highly sensitive to small propensity score values. Therefore, a general debiasing framework that works well under tail queries is in desperate need. To address this problem, we propose a model-based unbiased learning-to-rank framework. Specifically, we develop a general context-aware user simulator to generate pseudo clicks for unobserved ranked lists to train rankers, which addresses the data sparsity problem. In addition, considering the discrepancy between pseudo clicks and actual clicks, we take the observation of a ranked list as the treatment variable and further incorporate inverse propensity weighting with pseudo labels in a doubly robust way. The derived bias and variance indicate that the proposed model-based method is more robust than existing methods. Finally, extensive experiments on benchmark datasets, including simulated datasets and real click logs, demonstrate that the proposed model-based method consistently performs outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various scenarios.

When training a machine learning classifier on data where one of the classes is intrinsically rare, the classifier will often assign too few sources to the rare class. To address this, it is common to up-weight the examples of the rare class to ensure it isn't ignored. It is also a frequent practice to train on restricted data where the balance of source types is closer to equal for the same reason. Here we show that these practices can bias the model toward over-assigning sources to the rare class. We also explore how to detect when training data bias has had a statistically significant impact on the trained model's predictions, and how to reduce the bias's impact. While the magnitude of the impact of the techniques developed here will vary with the details of the application, for most cases it should be modest. They are, however, universally applicable to every time a machine learning classification model is used, making them analogous to Bessel's correction to the sample variance.

Context: Differential testing is a useful approach that uses different implementations of the same algorithms and compares the results for software testing. In recent years, this approach was successfully used for test campaigns of deep learning frameworks. Objective: There is little knowledge on the application of differential testing beyond deep learning. Within this article, we want to close this gap for classification algorithms. Method: We conduct a case study using Scikit-learn, Weka, Spark MLlib, and Caret in which we identify the potential of differential testing by considering which algorithms are available in multiple frameworks, the feasibility by identifying pairs of algorithms that should exhibit the same behavior, and the effectiveness by executing tests for the identified pairs and analyzing the deviations. Results: While we found a large potential for popular algorithms, the feasibility seems limited because often it is not possible to determine configurations that are the same in other frameworks. The execution of the feasible tests revealed that there is a large amount of deviations for the scores and classes. Only a lenient approach based on statistical significance of classes does not lead to a huge amount of test failures. Conclusions: The potential of differential testing beyond deep learning seems limited for research into the quality of machine learning libraries. Practitioners may still use the approach if they have deep knowledge about implementations, especially if a coarse oracle that only considers significant differences of classes is sufficient.

Optimal execution is a sequential decision-making problem for cost-saving in algorithmic trading. Studies have found that reinforcement learning (RL) can help decide the order-splitting sizes. However, a problem remains unsolved: how to place limit orders at appropriate limit prices? The key challenge lies in the "continuous-discrete duality" of the action space. On the one hand, the continuous action space using percentage changes in prices is preferred for generalization. On the other hand, the trader eventually needs to choose limit prices discretely due to the existence of the tick size, which requires specialization for every single stock with different characteristics (e.g., the liquidity and the price range). So we need continuous control for generalization and discrete control for specialization. To this end, we propose a hybrid RL method to combine the advantages of both of them. We first use a continuous control agent to scope an action subset, then deploy a fine-grained agent to choose a specific limit price. Extensive experiments show that our method has higher sample efficiency and better training stability than existing RL algorithms and significantly outperforms previous learning-based methods for order execution.

We study the performance -- and specifically the rate at which the error probability converges to zero -- of Machine Learning (ML) classification techniques. Leveraging the theory of large deviations, we provide the mathematical conditions for a ML classifier to exhibit error probabilities that vanish exponentially, say $\sim \exp\left(-n\,I + o(n) \right)$, where $n$ is the number of informative observations available for testing (or another relevant parameter, such as the size of the target in an image) and $I$ is the error rate. Such conditions depend on the Fenchel-Legendre transform of the cumulant-generating function of the Data-Driven Decision Function (D3F, i.e., what is thresholded before the final binary decision is made) learned in the training phase. As such, the D3F and, consequently, the related error rate $I$, depend on the given training set, which is assumed of finite size. Interestingly, these conditions can be verified and tested numerically exploiting the available dataset, or a synthetic dataset, generated according to the available information on the underlying statistical model. In other words, the classification error probability convergence to zero and its rate can be computed on a portion of the dataset available for training. Coherently with the large deviations theory, we can also establish the convergence, for $n$ large enough, of the normalized D3F statistic to a Gaussian distribution. This property is exploited to set a desired asymptotic false alarm probability, which empirically turns out to be accurate even for quite realistic values of $n$. Furthermore, approximate error probability curves $\sim \zeta_n \exp\left(-n\,I \right)$ are provided, thanks to the refined asymptotic derivation (often referred to as exact asymptotics), where $\zeta_n$ represents the most representative sub-exponential terms of the error probabilities.

Existing adversarial example research focuses on digitally inserted perturbations on top of existing natural image datasets. This construction of adversarial examples is not realistic because it may be difficult, or even impossible, for an attacker to deploy such an attack in the real-world due to sensing and environmental effects. To better understand adversarial examples against cyber-physical systems, we propose approximating the real-world through simulation. In this paper we describe our synthetic dataset generation tool that enables scalable collection of such a synthetic dataset with realistic adversarial examples. We use the CARLA simulator to collect such a dataset and demonstrate simulated attacks that undergo the same environmental transforms and processing as real-world images. Our tools have been used to collect datasets to help evaluate the efficacy of adversarial examples, and can be found at //github.com/carla-simulator/carla/pull/4992.

Images can convey rich semantics and induce various emotions in viewers. Recently, with the rapid advancement of emotional intelligence and the explosive growth of visual data, extensive research efforts have been dedicated to affective image content analysis (AICA). In this survey, we will comprehensively review the development of AICA in the recent two decades, especially focusing on the state-of-the-art methods with respect to three main challenges -- the affective gap, perception subjectivity, and label noise and absence. We begin with an introduction to the key emotion representation models that have been widely employed in AICA and description of available datasets for performing evaluation with quantitative comparison of label noise and dataset bias. We then summarize and compare the representative approaches on (1) emotion feature extraction, including both handcrafted and deep features, (2) learning methods on dominant emotion recognition, personalized emotion prediction, emotion distribution learning, and learning from noisy data or few labels, and (3) AICA based applications. Finally, we discuss some challenges and promising research directions in the future, such as image content and context understanding, group emotion clustering, and viewer-image interaction.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.