Causal discovery from time series data is a typical problem setting across the sciences. Often, multiple datasets of the same system variables are available, for instance, time series of river runoff from different catchments. The local catchment systems then share certain causal parents, such as time-dependent large-scale weather over all catchments, but differ in other catchment-specific drivers, such as the altitude of the catchment. These drivers can be called temporal and spatial contexts, respectively, and are often partially unobserved. Pooling the datasets and considering the joint causal graph among system, context, and certain auxiliary variables enables us to overcome such latent confounding of system variables. In this work, we present a non-parametric time series causal discovery method, J(oint)-PCMCI+, that efficiently learns such joint causal time series graphs when both observed and latent contexts are present, including time lags. We present asymptotic consistency results and numerical experiments demonstrating the utility and limitations of the method.
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The approach to analysing compositional data has been dominated by the use of logratio transformations, to ensure exact subcompositional coherence and, in some situations, exact isometry as well. A problem with this approach is that data zeros, found in most applications, have to be replaced to allow the logarithmic transformation. An alternative new approach, called the `chiPower' transformation, which allows data zeros, is to combine the standardization inherent in the chi-square distance in correspondence analysis, with the essential elements of the Box-Cox power transformation. The chiPower transformation is justified because it} defines between-sample distances that tend to logratio distances for strictly positive data as the power parameter tends to zero, and are then equivalent to transforming to logratios. For data with zeros, a value of the power can be identified that brings the chiPower transformation as close as possible to a logratio transformation, without having to substitute the zeros. Especially in the area of high-dimensional data, this alternative approach can present such a high level of coherence and isometry as to be a valid approach to the analysis of compositional data. Furthermore, in a supervised learning context, if the compositional variables serve as predictors of a response in a modelling framework, for example generalized linear models, then the power can be used as a tuning parameter in optimizing the accuracy of prediction through cross-validation. The chiPower-transformed variables have a straightforward interpretation, since they are each identified with single compositional parts, not ratios.
Convex PCA, which was introduced by Bigot et al., is a dimension reduction methodology for data with values in a convex subset of a Hilbert space. This setting arises naturally in many applications, including distributional data in the Wasserstein space of an interval, and ranked compositional data under the Aitchison geometry. Our contribution in this paper is threefold. First, we present several new theoretical results including consistency as well as continuity and differentiability of the objective function in the finite dimensional case. Second, we develop a numerical implementation of finite dimensional convex PCA when the convex set is polyhedral, and show that this provides a natural approximation of Wasserstein geodesic PCA. Third, we illustrate our results with two financial applications, namely distributions of stock returns ranked by size and the capital distribution curve, both of which are of independent interest in stochastic portfolio theory.
Tools of Topological Data Analysis provide stable summaries encapsulating the shape of the considered data. Persistent homology, the most standard and well studied data summary, suffers a number of limitations; its computations are hard to distribute, it is hard to generalize to multifiltrations and is computationally prohibitive for big data-sets. In this paper we study the concept of Euler Characteristics Curves, for one parameter filtrations and Euler Characteristic Profiles, for multi-parameter filtrations. While being a weaker invariant in one dimension, we show that Euler Characteristic based approaches do not possess some handicaps of persistent homology; we show efficient algorithms to compute them in a distributed way, their generalization to multifiltrations and practical applicability for big data problems. In addition we show that the Euler Curves and Profiles enjoys certain type of stability which makes them robust tool in data analysis. Lastly, to show their practical applicability, multiple use-cases are considered.
Digital image correlation (DIC) has become a valuable tool in the evaluation of mechanical experiments, particularly fatigue crack growth experiments. The evaluation requires accurate information of the crack path and crack tip position, which is difficult to obtain due to inherent noise and artefacts. Machine learning models have been extremely successful in recognizing this relevant information. But for the training of robust models, which generalize well, big data is needed. However, data is typically scarce in the field of material science and engineering because experiments are expensive and time-consuming. We present a method to generate synthetic DIC data using generative adversarial networks with a physics-guided discriminator. To decide whether data samples are real or fake, this discriminator additionally receives the derived von Mises equivalent strain. We show that this physics-guided approach leads to improved results in terms of visual quality of samples, sliced Wasserstein distance, and geometry score.
The application of deep learning to non-stationary temporal datasets can lead to overfitted models that underperform under regime changes. In this work, we propose a modular machine learning pipeline for ranking predictions on temporal panel datasets which is robust under regime changes. The modularity of the pipeline allows the use of different models, including Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs) and Neural Networks, with and without feature engineering. We evaluate our framework on financial data for stock portfolio prediction, and find that GBDT models with dropout display high performance, robustness and generalisability with reduced complexity and computational cost. We then demonstrate how online learning techniques, which require no retraining of models, can be used post-prediction to enhance the results. First, we show that dynamic feature projection improves robustness by reducing drawdown in regime changes. Second, we demonstrate that dynamical model ensembling based on selection of models with good recent performance leads to improved Sharpe and Calmar ratios of out-of-sample predictions. We also evaluate the robustness of our pipeline across different data splits and random seeds with good reproducibility.
We present a robust deep incremental learning framework for regression tasks on financial temporal tabular datasets which is built upon the incremental use of commonly available tabular and time series prediction models to adapt to distributional shifts typical of financial datasets. The framework uses a simple basic building block (decision trees) to build self-similar models of any required complexity to deliver robust performance under adverse situations such as regime changes, fat-tailed distributions, and low signal-to-noise ratios. As a detailed study, we demonstrate our scheme using XGBoost models trained on the Numerai dataset and show that a two layer deep ensemble of XGBoost models over different model snapshots delivers high quality predictions under different market regimes. We also show that the performance of XGBoost models with different number of boosting rounds in three scenarios (small, standard and large) is monotonically increasing with respect to model size and converges towards the generalisation upper bound. We also evaluate the robustness of the model under variability of different hyperparameters, such as model complexity and data sampling settings. Our model has low hardware requirements as no specialised neural architectures are used and each base model can be independently trained in parallel.
We develop sampling algorithms to fit Bayesian hierarchical models, the computational complexity of which scales linearly with the number of observations and the number of parameters in the model. We focus on crossed random effect and nested multilevel models, which are used ubiquitously in applied sciences. The posterior dependence in both classes is sparse: in crossed random effects models it resembles a random graph, whereas in nested multilevel models it is tree-structured. For each class we identify a framework for scalable computation, building on previous work. Methods for crossed models are based on extensions of appropriately designed collapsed Gibbs samplers, where we introduce the idea of local centering; while methods for nested models are based on sparse linear algebra and data augmentation. We provide a theoretical analysis of the proposed algorithms in some simplified settings, including a comparison with previously proposed methodologies and an average-case analysis based on random graph theory. Numerical experiments, including two challenging real data analyses on predicting electoral results and real estate prices, compare with off-the-shelf Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, displaying drastic improvement in performance.
In this work, we first develop a general mesoscopic multiple-relaxation-time lattice Boltzmann (MRT-LB) model for the two-dimensional diffusion equation with the constant diffusion coefficient and source term, where the D2Q5 (five discrete velocities in two-dimensional space) lattice structure is considered. Then we exactly derive the equivalent macroscopic finite-difference scheme of the MRT-LB model. Additionally, we also propose a proper MRT-LB model for the diffusion equation with a linear source term, and obtain an equivalent macroscopic six-level finite-difference scheme. After that, we conduct the accuracy and stability analysis of the finite-difference scheme and the mesoscopic MRT-LB model. It is found that at the diffusive scaling, both of them can achieve a fourth-order accuracy in space based on the Taylor expansion. The stability analysis also shows that they are both unconditionally stable. Finally, some numerical experiments are conducted, and the numerical results are also consistent with our theoretical analysis.
This study performs an ablation analysis of Vector Quantized Generative Adversarial Networks (VQGANs), concentrating on image-to-image synthesis utilizing a single NVIDIA A100 GPU. The current work explores the nuanced effects of varying critical parameters including the number of epochs, image count, and attributes of codebook vectors and latent dimensions, specifically within the constraint of limited resources. Notably, our focus is pinpointed on the vector quantization loss, keeping other hyperparameters and loss components (GAN loss) fixed. This was done to delve into a deeper understanding of the discrete latent space, and to explore how varying its size affects the reconstruction. Though, our results do not surpass the existing benchmarks, however, our findings shed significant light on VQGAN's behaviour for a smaller dataset, particularly concerning artifacts, codebook size optimization, and comparative analysis with Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The study also uncovers the promising direction by introducing 2D positional encodings, revealing a marked reduction in artifacts and insights into balancing clarity and overfitting.
Hashing has been widely used in approximate nearest search for large-scale database retrieval for its computation and storage efficiency. Deep hashing, which devises convolutional neural network architecture to exploit and extract the semantic information or feature of images, has received increasing attention recently. In this survey, several deep supervised hashing methods for image retrieval are evaluated and I conclude three main different directions for deep supervised hashing methods. Several comments are made at the end. Moreover, to break through the bottleneck of the existing hashing methods, I propose a Shadow Recurrent Hashing(SRH) method as a try. Specifically, I devise a CNN architecture to extract the semantic features of images and design a loss function to encourage similar images projected close. To this end, I propose a concept: shadow of the CNN output. During optimization process, the CNN output and its shadow are guiding each other so as to achieve the optimal solution as much as possible. Several experiments on dataset CIFAR-10 show the satisfying performance of SRH.
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