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We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. Unlike machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation for model selection as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcomes. Towards this, a variety of surrogate metrics have been proposed for CATE model selection that use only observed data. However, we do not have a good understanding regarding their effectiveness due to limited comparisons in prior studies. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to benchmark the surrogate model selection metrics introduced in the literature, as well as the novel ones introduced in this work. We ensure a fair comparison by tuning the hyperparameters associated with these metrics via AutoML, and provide more detailed trends by incorporating realistic datasets via generative modeling. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter selection of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

Organ segmentation is a fundamental task in medical imaging, and it is useful for many clinical automation pipelines. Typically, the process involves segmenting the entire volume, which can be unnecessary when the points of interest are limited. In those cases, a classifier could be used instead of segmentation. However, there is an inherent trade-off between the context size and the speed of classifiers. To address this issue, we propose a new method that employs a data selection strategy with sparse sampling across a wide field of view without image resampling. This sparse sampling strategy makes it possible to classify voxels into multiple organs in real time without using accelerators. Although our method is an independent classifier, it can generate full segmentation by querying grid locations at any resolution. We have compared our method with existing segmentation techniques, demonstrating its potential for superior runtime in practical applications in medical imaging.

Navigating topological transitions in cellular mechanical systems is a significant challenge for existing simulation methods. While abstract models lack predictive capabilities at the cellular level, explicit network representations struggle with topology changes, and per-cell representations are computationally too demanding for large-scale simulations. To address these challenges, we propose a novel cell-centered approach based on differentiable Voronoi diagrams. Representing each cell with a Voronoi site, our method defines shape and topology of the interface network implicitly. In this way, we substantially reduce the number of problem variables, eliminate the need for explicit contact handling, and ensure continuous geometry changes during topological transitions. Closed-form derivatives of network positions facilitate simulation with Newton-type methods for a wide range of per-cell energies. Finally, we extend our differentiable Voronoi diagrams to enable coupling with arbitrary rigid and deformable boundaries. We apply our approach to a diverse set of examples, highlighting splitting and merging of cells as well as neighborhood changes. We illustrate applications to inverse problems by matching soap foam simulations to real-world images. Comparative analysis with explicit cell models reveals that our method achieves qualitatively comparable results at significantly faster computation times.

Medical image segmentation, which is essential for many clinical applications, has achieved almost human-level performance via data-driven deep learning technologies. Nevertheless, its performance is predicated upon the costly process of manually annotating a vast amount of medical images. To this end, we propose a novel framework for robust semi-supervised medical image segmentation using diagonal hierarchical consistency learning (DiHC-Net). First, it is composed of multiple sub-models with identical multi-scale architecture but with distinct sub-layers, such as up-sampling and normalisation layers. Second, with mutual consistency, a novel consistency regularisation is enforced between one model's intermediate and final prediction and soft pseudo labels from other models in a diagonal hierarchical fashion. A series of experiments verifies the efficacy of our simple framework, outperforming all previous approaches on public benchmark dataset covering organ and tumour.

Clinical trials are critical in advancing medical treatments but often suffer from immense time and financial burden. Advances in statistical methodologies and artificial intelligence (AI) present opportunities to address these inefficiencies. Here we introduce Prognostic Covariate-Adjusted Mixed Models for Repeated Measures (PROCOVA-MMRM) as an advantageous combination of prognostic covariate adjustment (PROCOVA) and Mixed Models for Repeated Measures (MMRM). PROCOVA-MMRM utilizes time-matched prognostic scores generated from AI models to enhance the precision of treatment effect estimators for longitudinal continuous outcomes, enabling reductions in sample size and enrollment times. We first provide a description of the background and implementation of PROCOVA-MMRM, followed by two case study reanalyses where we compare the performance of PROCOVA-MMRM versus the unadjusted MMRM. These reanalyses demonstrate significant improvements in statistical power and precision in clinical indications with unmet medical need, specifically Alzheimer's Disease (AD) and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS). We also explore the potential for sample size reduction with the prospective implementation of PROCOVA-MMRM, finding that the same or better results could have been achieved with fewer participants in these historical trials if the enhanced precision provided by PROCOVA-MMRM had been prospectively leveraged. We also confirm the robustness of the statistical properties of PROCOVA-MMRM in a variety of realistic simulation scenarios. Altogether, PROCOVA-MMRM represents a rigorous method of incorporating advances in the prediction of time-matched prognostic scores generated by AI into longitudinal analysis, potentially reducing both the cost and time required to bring new treatments to patients while adhering to regulatory standards.

Planning for both immediate and long-term benefits becomes increasingly important in recommendation. Existing methods apply Reinforcement Learning (RL) to learn planning capacity by maximizing cumulative reward for long-term recommendation. However, the scarcity of recommendation data presents challenges such as instability and susceptibility to overfitting when training RL models from scratch, resulting in sub-optimal performance. In this light, we propose to leverage the remarkable planning capabilities over sparse data of Large Language Models (LLMs) for long-term recommendation. The key to achieving the target lies in formulating a guidance plan following principles of enhancing long-term engagement and grounding the plan to effective and executable actions in a personalized manner. To this end, we propose a Bi-level Learnable LLM Planner framework, which consists of a set of LLM instances and breaks down the learning process into macro-learning and micro-learning to learn macro-level guidance and micro-level personalized recommendation policies, respectively. Extensive experiments validate that the framework facilitates the planning ability of LLMs for long-term recommendation. Our code and data can be found at //github.com/jizhi-zhang/BiLLP.

Changing clinical algorithms to remove race adjustment has been proposed and implemented for multiple health conditions. Removing race adjustment from estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) equations may reduce disparities in chronic kidney disease (CKD), but has not been studied in clinical practice after implementation. Here, we assessed whether implementing an eGFR equation (CKD-EPI 2021) without adjustment for Black or African American race modified quarterly rates of nephrology referrals and visits within a single healthcare system, Stanford Health Care (SHC). Our cohort study analyzed 547,194 adult patients aged 21 and older who had at least one recorded serum creatinine or serum cystatin C between January 1, 2019 and September 1, 2023. During the study period, implementation of CKD-EPI 2021 did not modify rates of quarterly nephrology referrals in those documented as Black or African American or in the overall cohort. After adjusting for capacity at SHC nephrology clinics, estimated rates of nephrology referrals and visits with CKD-EPI 2021 were 34 (95% CI 29, 39) and 188 (175, 201) per 10,000 patients documented as Black or African American. If race adjustment had not been removed, estimated rates were nearly identical: 38 (95% CI: 28, 53) and 189 (165, 218) per 10,000 patients. Changes to the eGFR equation are likely insufficient to achieve health equity in CKD care decision-making as many other structural inequities remain.

Beyond improving trust and validating model fairness, xAI practices also have the potential to recover valuable scientific insights in application domains where little to no prior human intuition exists. To that end, we propose a method to extract global concept explanations from the predictions of graph neural networks to develop a deeper understanding of the tasks underlying structure-property relationships. We identify concept explanations as dense clusters in the self-explaining Megan models subgraph latent space. For each concept, we optimize a representative prototype graph and optionally use GPT-4 to provide hypotheses about why each structure has a certain effect on the prediction. We conduct computational experiments on synthetic and real-world graph property prediction tasks. For the synthetic tasks we find that our method correctly reproduces the structural rules by which they were created. For real-world molecular property regression and classification tasks, we find that our method rediscovers established rules of thumb. More specifically, our results for molecular mutagenicity prediction indicate more fine-grained resolution of structural details than existing explainability methods, consistent with previous results from chemistry literature. Overall, our results show promising capability to extract the underlying structure-property relationships for complex graph property prediction tasks.

Despite the remarkable success of deep learning in medical imaging analysis, medical image segmentation remains challenging due to the scarcity of high-quality labeled images for supervision. Further, the significant domain gap between natural and medical images in general and ultrasound images in particular hinders fine-tuning models trained on natural images to the task at hand. In this work, we address the performance degradation of segmentation models in low-data regimes and propose a prompt-less segmentation method harnessing the ability of segmentation foundation models to segment abstract shapes. We do that via our novel prompt point generation algorithm which uses coarse semantic segmentation masks as input and a zero-shot prompt-able foundation model as an optimization target. We demonstrate our method on a segmentation findings task (pathologic anomalies) in ultrasound images. Our method's advantages are brought to light in varying degrees of low-data regime experiments on a small-scale musculoskeletal ultrasound images dataset, yielding a larger performance gain as the training set size decreases.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) is crucial for precision medicine. While multiple studies can improve the generalizability of results, leveraging them for estimation is statistically challenging. Existing approaches often assume identical HTEs across studies, but this may be violated due to various sources of between-study heterogeneity, including differences in study design, study populations, and data collection protocols, among others. To this end, we propose a framework for multi-study HTE estimation that accounts for between-study heterogeneity in the nuisance functions and treatment effects. Our approach, the multi-study R-learner, extends the R-learner to obtain principled statistical estimation with machine learning (ML) in the multi-study setting. It involves a data-adaptive objective function that links study-specific treatment effects with nuisance functions through membership probabilities, which enable information to be borrowed across potentially heterogeneous studies. The multi-study R-learner framework can combine data from randomized controlled trials, observational studies, or a combination of both. It's easy to implement and flexible in its ability to incorporate ML for estimating HTEs, nuisance functions, and membership probabilities. In the series estimation framework, we show that the multi-study R-learner is asymptotically normal and more efficient than the R-learner when there is between-study heterogeneity in the propensity score model under homoscedasticity. We illustrate using cancer data that the proposed method performs favorably compared to existing approaches in the presence of between-study heterogeneity.