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Model-based unsupervised learning, as any learning task, stalls as soon asmissing data occurs. This is even more true when the missing data are infor-mative, or said missing not at random (MNAR). In this paper, we proposemodel-based clustering algorithms designed to handle very general typesof missing data, including MNAR data. To do so, we introduce a mixturemodel for different types of data (continuous, count, categorical and mixed)to jointly model the data distribution and the MNAR mechanism, remainingvigilant to the degrees of freedom of each. Eight different MNAR modelswhich depend on the class membership and/or on the values of the missingvariables themselves are proposed. For a particular type of MNAR mod-els, for which the missingness depends on the class membership, we showthat the statistical inference can be carried out on the data matrix concate-nated with the missing mask considering a MAR mechanism instead; thisspecifically underlines the versatility of the studied MNAR models. Then,we establish sufficient conditions for identifiability of parameters of both thedata distribution and the mechanism. Regardless of the type of data and themechanism, we propose to perform clustering using EM or stochastic EMalgorithms specially developed for the purpose. Finally, we assess the nu-merical performances of the proposed methods on synthetic data and on thereal medical registry TraumaBase as well.

The false discovery rate (FDR) and the false non-discovery rate (FNR), defined as the expected false discovery proportion (FDP) and the false non-discovery proportion (FNP), are the most popular benchmarks for multiple testing. Despite the theoretical and algorithmic advances in recent years, the optimal tradeoff between the FDR and the FNR has been largely unknown except for certain restricted class of decision rules, e.g., separable rules, or for other performance metrics, e.g., the marginal FDR and the marginal FNR (mFDR and mFNR). In this paper we determine the asymptotically optimal FDR-FNR tradeoff under the two-group random mixture model when the number of hypotheses tends to infinity. Distinct from the optimal mFDR-mFNR tradeoff, which is achieved by separable decision rules, the optimal FDR-FNR tradeoff requires compound rules and randomization even in the large-sample limit. A data-driven version of the oracle rule is proposed and shown to outperform existing methodologies on simulated data for models as simple as the normal mean model. Finally, to address the limitation of the FDR and FNR which only control the expectations but not the fluctuations of the FDP and FNP, we also determine the optimal tradeoff when the FDP and FNP are controlled with high probability and show it coincides with that of the mFDR and the mFNR.

Incomplete covariate vectors are known to be problematic for estimation and inferences on model parameters, but their impact on prediction performance is less understood. We develop an imputation-free method that builds on a random partition model admitting variable-dimension covariates. Cluster-specific response models further incorporate covariates via linear predictors, facilitating estimation of smooth prediction surfaces with relatively few clusters. We exploit marginalization techniques of Gaussian kernels to analytically project response distributions according to any pattern of missing covariates, yielding a local regression with internally consistent uncertainty propagation that utilizes only one set of coefficients per cluster. Aggressive shrinkage of these coefficients regulates uncertainty due to missing covariates. The method allows in- and out-of-sample prediction for any missingness pattern, even if the pattern in a new subject's incomplete covariate vector was not seen in the training data. We develop an MCMC algorithm for posterior sampling that improves a computationally expensive update for latent cluster allocation. Finally, we demonstrate the model's effectiveness for nonlinear point and density prediction under various circumstances by comparing with other recent methods for regression of variable dimensions on synthetic and real data.

We provide exact asymptotic expressions for the performance of regression by an $L-$layer deep random feature (RF) model, where the input is mapped through multiple random embedding and non-linear activation functions. For this purpose, we establish two key steps: First, we prove a novel universality result for RF models and deterministic data, by which we demonstrate that a deep random feature model is equivalent to a deep linear Gaussian model that matches it in the first and second moments, at each layer. Second, we make use of the convex Gaussian Min-Max theorem multiple times to obtain the exact behavior of deep RF models. We further characterize the variation of the eigendistribution in different layers of the equivalent Gaussian model, demonstrating that depth has a tangible effect on model performance despite the fact that only the last layer of the model is being trained.

In this paper, we consider a theoretical model for injecting data bias, namely, under-representation and label bias (Blum & Stangl, 2019). We theoretically and empirically study its effect on the accuracy and fairness of fair classifiers. Theoretically, we prove that the Bayes optimal group-aware fair classifier on the original data distribution can be recovered by simply minimizing a carefully chosen reweighed loss on the bias-injected distribution. Through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets (e.g., Adult, German Credit, Bank Marketing, COMPAS), we empirically audit pre-, in-, and post-processing fair classifiers from standard fairness toolkits for their fairness and accuracy by injecting varying amounts of under-representation and label bias in their training data (but not the test data). Our main observations are: (1) The fairness and accuracy of many standard fair classifiers degrade severely as the bias injected in their training data increases, (2) A simple logistic regression model trained on the right data can often outperform, in both accuracy and fairness, most fair classifiers trained on biased training data, and (3) A few, simple fairness techniques (e.g., reweighing, exponentiated gradients) seem to offer stable accuracy and fairness guarantees even when their training data is injected with under-representation and label bias. Our experiments also show how to integrate a measure of data bias risk in the existing fairness dashboards for real-world deployments

Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive class of machine learning models because of their simplicity and flexibility as building blocks of more complex Bayesian models. Meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) emerged recently as a promising class of models for graph-structured data in semi-supervised learning and beyond. Their competitive performance is often attributed to a proper capturing of the graph inductive bias. In this work, we introduce this inductive bias into GPs to improve their predictive performance for graph-structured data. We show that a prominent example of GNNs, the graph convolutional network, is equivalent to some GP when its layers are infinitely wide; and we analyze the kernel universality and the limiting behavior in depth. We further present a programmable procedure to compose covariance kernels inspired by this equivalence and derive example kernels corresponding to several interesting members of the GNN family. We also propose a computationally efficient approximation of the covariance matrix for scalable posterior inference with large-scale data. We demonstrate that these graph-based kernels lead to competitive classification and regression performance, as well as advantages in computation time, compared with the respective GNNs.

We develop a general theoretical and algorithmic framework for sparse approximation and structured prediction in $\mathcal{P}_2(\Omega)$ with Wasserstein barycenters. The barycenters are sparse in the sense that they are computed from an available dictionary of measures but the approximations only involve a reduced number of atoms. We show that the best reconstruction from the class of sparse barycenters is characterized by a notion of best $n$-term barycenter which we introduce, and which can be understood as a natural extension of the classical concept of best $n$-term approximation in Banach spaces. We show that the best $n$-term barycenter is the minimizer of a highly non-convex, bi-level optimization problem, and we develop algorithmic strategies for practical numerical computation. We next leverage this approximation tool to build interpolation strategies that involve a reduced computational cost, and that can be used for structured prediction, and metamodelling of parametrized families of measures. We illustrate the potential of the method through the specific problem of Model Order Reduction (MOR) of parametrized PDEs. Since our approach is sparse, adaptive and preserves mass by construction, it has potential to overcome known bottlenecks of classical linear methods in hyperbolic conservation laws transporting discontinuities. It also paves the way towards MOR for measure-valued PDE problems such as gradient flows.

Federated Learning (FL) is a decentralized machine-learning paradigm, in which a global server iteratively averages the model parameters of local users without accessing their data. User heterogeneity has imposed significant challenges to FL, which can incur drifted global models that are slow to converge. Knowledge Distillation has recently emerged to tackle this issue, by refining the server model using aggregated knowledge from heterogeneous users, other than directly averaging their model parameters. This approach, however, depends on a proxy dataset, making it impractical unless such a prerequisite is satisfied. Moreover, the ensemble knowledge is not fully utilized to guide local model learning, which may in turn affect the quality of the aggregated model. Inspired by the prior art, we propose a data-free knowledge distillation} approach to address heterogeneous FL, where the server learns a lightweight generator to ensemble user information in a data-free manner, which is then broadcasted to users, regulating local training using the learned knowledge as an inductive bias. Empirical studies powered by theoretical implications show that, our approach facilitates FL with better generalization performance using fewer communication rounds, compared with the state-of-the-art.

Clustering is one of the most fundamental and wide-spread techniques in exploratory data analysis. Yet, the basic approach to clustering has not really changed: a practitioner hand-picks a task-specific clustering loss to optimize and fit the given data to reveal the underlying cluster structure. Some types of losses---such as k-means, or its non-linear version: kernelized k-means (centroid based), and DBSCAN (density based)---are popular choices due to their good empirical performance on a range of applications. Although every so often the clustering output using these standard losses fails to reveal the underlying structure, and the practitioner has to custom-design their own variation. In this work we take an intrinsically different approach to clustering: rather than fitting a dataset to a specific clustering loss, we train a recurrent model that learns how to cluster. The model uses as training pairs examples of datasets (as input) and its corresponding cluster identities (as output). By providing multiple types of training datasets as inputs, our model has the ability to generalize well on unseen datasets (new clustering tasks). Our experiments reveal that by training on simple synthetically generated datasets or on existing real datasets, we can achieve better clustering performance on unseen real-world datasets when compared with standard benchmark clustering techniques. Our meta clustering model works well even for small datasets where the usual deep learning models tend to perform worse.

Medical image segmentation requires consensus ground truth segmentations to be derived from multiple expert annotations. A novel approach is proposed that obtains consensus segmentations from experts using graph cuts (GC) and semi supervised learning (SSL). Popular approaches use iterative Expectation Maximization (EM) to estimate the final annotation and quantify annotator's performance. Such techniques pose the risk of getting trapped in local minima. We propose a self consistency (SC) score to quantify annotator consistency using low level image features. SSL is used to predict missing annotations by considering global features and local image consistency. The SC score also serves as the penalty cost in a second order Markov random field (MRF) cost function optimized using graph cuts to derive the final consensus label. Graph cut obtains a global maximum without an iterative procedure. Experimental results on synthetic images, real data of Crohn's disease patients and retinal images show our final segmentation to be accurate and more consistent than competing methods.