This paper presents a novel generic asymptotic expansion formula of expectations of multidimensional Wiener functionals through a Malliavin calculus technique. The uniform estimate of the asymptotic expansion is shown under a weaker condition on the Malliavin covariance matrix of the target Wiener functional. In particular, the method provides a tractable expansion for the expectation of an irregular functional of the solution to a multidimensional rough differential equation driven by fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index $H<1/2$, without using complicated fractional integral calculus for the singular kernel. In a numerical experiment, our expansion shows a much better approximation for a probability distribution function than its normal approximation, which demonstrates the validity of the proposed method.
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Neural operators such as the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) have been shown to provide resolution-independent deep learning models that can learn mappings between function spaces. For example, an initial condition can be mapped to the solution of a partial differential equation (PDE) at a future time-step using a neural operator. Despite the popularity of neural operators, their use to predict solution functions over a domain given only data over the boundary (such as a spatially varying Dirichlet boundary condition) remains unexplored. In this paper, we refer to such problems as boundary-to-domain problems; they have a wide range of applications in areas such as fluid mechanics, solid mechanics, heat transfer etc. We present a novel FNO-based architecture, named Lifting Product FNO (or LP-FNO) which can map arbitrary boundary functions defined on the lower-dimensional boundary to a solution in the entire domain. Specifically, two FNOs defined on the lower-dimensional boundary are lifted into the higher dimensional domain using our proposed lifting product layer. We demonstrate the efficacy and resolution independence of the proposed LP-FNO for the 2D Poisson equation.
In this contribution we study the formal ability of a multi-resolution-times lattice Boltzmann scheme to approximate isothermal and thermal compressible Navier Stokes equations with a single particle distribution. More precisely, we consider a total of 12 classical square lattice Boltzmann schemes with prescribed sets of conserved and nonconserved moments. The question is to determine the algebraic expressions of the equilibrium functions for the nonconserved moments and the relaxation parameters associated to each scheme. We compare the fluid equations and the result of the Taylor expansion method at second order accuracy for bidimensional examples with a maximum of 17 velocities and three-dimensional schemes with at most 33 velocities. In some cases, it is not possible to fit exactly the physical model. For several examples, we adjust the Navier Stokes equations and propose nontrivial expressions for the equilibria.
The solution approximation for partial differential equations (PDEs) can be substantially improved using smooth basis functions. The recently introduced mollified basis functions are constructed through mollification, or convolution, of cell-wise defined piecewise polynomials with a smooth mollifier of certain characteristics. The properties of the mollified basis functions are governed by the order of the piecewise functions and the smoothness of the mollifier. In this work, we exploit the high-order and high-smoothness properties of the mollified basis functions for solving PDEs through the point collocation method. The basis functions are evaluated at a set of collocation points in the domain. In addition, boundary conditions are imposed at a set of boundary collocation points distributed over the domain boundaries. To ensure the stability of the resulting linear system of equations, the number of collocation points is set larger than the total number of basis functions. The resulting linear system is overdetermined and is solved using the least square technique. The presented numerical examples confirm the convergence of the proposed approximation scheme for Poisson, linear elasticity, and biharmonic problems. We study in particular the influence of the mollifier and the spatial distribution of the collocation points.
This note discusses a simple modification of cross-conformal prediction inspired by recent work on e-values. The precursor of conformal prediction developed in the 1990s by Gammerman, Vapnik, and Vovk was also based on e-values and is called conformal e-prediction in this note. Replacing e-values by p-values led to conformal prediction, which has important advantages over conformal e-prediction without obvious disadvantages. The situation with cross-conformal prediction is, however, different: whereas for cross-conformal prediction validity is only an empirical fact (and can be broken with excessive randomization), this note draws the reader's attention to the obvious fact that cross-conformal e-prediction enjoys a guaranteed property of validity.
We propose a variational symplectic numerical method for the time integration of dynamical systems issued from the least action principle. We assume a quadratic internal interpolation of the state between two time steps and we approximate the action in one time step by the Simpson's quadrature formula. The resulting scheme is nonlinear and symplectic. First numerical experiments concern a nonlinear pendulum and we have observed experimentally very good convergence properties.
A non-linear complex system governed by multi-spatial and multi-temporal physics scales cannot be fully understood with a single diagnostic, as each provides only a partial view and much information is lost during data extraction. Combining multiple diagnostics also results in imperfect projections of the system's physics. By identifying hidden inter-correlations between diagnostics, we can leverage mutual support to fill in these gaps, but uncovering these inter-correlations analytically is too complex. We introduce a groundbreaking machine learning methodology to address this issue. Our multimodal approach generates super resolution data encompassing multiple physics phenomena, capturing detailed structural evolution and responses to perturbations previously unobservable. This methodology addresses a critical problem in fusion plasmas: the Edge Localized Mode (ELM), a plasma instability that can severely damage reactor walls. One method to stabilize ELM is using resonant magnetic perturbation to trigger magnetic islands. However, low spatial and temporal resolution of measurements limits the analysis of these magnetic islands due to their small size, rapid dynamics, and complex interactions within the plasma. With super-resolution diagnostics, we can experimentally verify theoretical models of magnetic islands for the first time, providing unprecedented insights into their role in ELM stabilization. This advancement aids in developing effective ELM suppression strategies for future fusion reactors like ITER and has broader applications, potentially revolutionizing diagnostics in fields such as astronomy, astrophysics, and medical imaging.
This paper presents a structure-preserving Bayesian approach for learning nonseparable Hamiltonian systems using stochastic dynamic models allowing for statistically-dependent, vector-valued additive and multiplicative measurement noise. The approach is comprised of three main facets. First, we derive a Gaussian filter for a statistically-dependent, vector-valued, additive and multiplicative noise model that is needed to evaluate the likelihood within the Bayesian posterior. Second, we develop a novel algorithm for cost-effective application of Bayesian system identification to high-dimensional systems. Third, we demonstrate how structure-preserving methods can be incorporated into the proposed framework, using nonseparable Hamiltonians as an illustrative system class. We assess the method's performance based on the forecasting accuracy of a model estimated from-single trajectory data. We compare the Bayesian method to a state-of-the-art machine learning method on a canonical nonseparable Hamiltonian model and a chaotic double pendulum model with small, noisy training datasets. The results show that using the Bayesian posterior as a training objective can yield upwards of 724 times improvement in Hamiltonian mean squared error using training data with up to 10% multiplicative noise compared to a standard training objective. Lastly, we demonstrate the utility of the novel algorithm for parameter estimation of a 64-dimensional model of the spatially-discretized nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation with data corrupted by up to 20% multiplicative noise.
This paper studies the influence of probabilism and non-determinism on some quantitative aspect X of the execution of a system modeled as a Markov decision process (MDP). To this end, the novel notion of demonic variance is introduced: For a random variable X in an MDP M, it is defined as 1/2 times the maximal expected squared distance of the values of X in two independent execution of M in which also the non-deterministic choices are resolved independently by two distinct schedulers. It is shown that the demonic variance is between 1 and 2 times as large as the maximal variance of X in M that can be achieved by a single scheduler. This allows defining a non-determinism score for M and X measuring how strongly the difference of X in two executions of M can be influenced by the non-deterministic choices. Properties of MDPs M with extremal values of the non-determinism score are established. Further, the algorithmic problems of computing the maximal variance and the demonic variance are investigated for two random variables, namely weighted reachability and accumulated rewards. In the process, also the structure of schedulers maximizing the variance and of scheduler pairs realizing the demonic variance is analyzed.
Factor models are widely used for dimension reduction in the analysis of multivariate data. This is achieved through decomposition of a p x p covariance matrix into the sum of two components. Through a latent factor representation, they can be interpreted as a diagonal matrix of idiosyncratic variances and a shared variation matrix, that is, the product of a p x k factor loadings matrix and its transpose. If k << p, this defines a parsimonious factorisation of the covariance matrix. Historically, little attention has been paid to incorporating prior information in Bayesian analyses using factor models where, at best, the prior for the factor loadings is order invariant. In this work, a class of structured priors is developed that can encode ideas of dependence structure about the shared variation matrix. The construction allows data-informed shrinkage towards sensible parametric structures while also facilitating inference over the number of factors. Using an unconstrained reparameterisation of stationary vector autoregressions, the methodology is extended to stationary dynamic factor models. For computational inference, parameter-expanded Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers are proposed, including an efficient adaptive Gibbs sampler. Two substantive applications showcase the scope of the methodology and its inferential benefits.
This paper investigates the problem of regression model generation. A model is a superposition of primitive functions. The model structure is described by a weighted colored graph. Each graph vertex corresponds to some primitive function. An edge assigns a superposition of two functions. The weight of an edge equals the probability of superposition. To generate an optimal model one has to reconstruct its structure from its graph adjacency matrix. The proposed algorithm reconstructs the~minimum spanning tree from the~weighted colored graph. This paper presents a novel solution based on the prize-collecting Steiner tree algorithm. This algorithm is compared with its alternatives.
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