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The problem of overdispersed claim counts and mismeasured covariates is common in insurance. On the one hand, the presence of overdispersion in the count data violates the homogeneity assumption, and on the other hand, measurement errors in covariates highlight the model risk issue in actuarial practice. The consequence can be inaccurate premium pricing which would negatively affect business competitiveness. Our goal is to address these two modelling problems simultaneously by capturing the unobservable correlations between observations that arise from overdispersed outcome and mismeasured covariate in actuarial process. To this end, we establish novel connections between the count-based generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) and a popular error-correction tool for non-linear modelling - Simulation Extrapolation (SIMEX). We consider a modelling framework based on the hierarchical Bayesian paradigm. To our knowledge, the approach of combining a hierarchical Bayes with SIMEX has not previously been discussed in the literature. We demonstrate the applicability of our approach on the workplace absenteeism data. Our results indicate that the hierarchical Bayesian GLMM incorporated with the SIMEX outperforms naive GLMM / SIMEX in terms of goodness of fit.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · ARM · Learning · 設計 · 在線 ·
2023 年 11 月 27 日

We study a strategic variant of the multi-armed bandit problem, which we coin the strategic click-bandit. This model is motivated by applications in online recommendation where the choice of recommended items depends on both the click-through rates and the post-click rewards. Like in classical bandits, rewards follow a fixed unknown distribution. However, we assume that the click-rate of each arm is chosen strategically by the arm (e.g., a host on Airbnb) in order to maximize the number of times it gets clicked. The algorithm designer does not know the post-click rewards nor the arms' actions (i.e., strategically chosen click-rates) in advance, and must learn both values over time. To solve this problem, we design an incentive-aware learning algorithm, UCB-S, which achieves two goals simultaneously: (a) incentivizing desirable arm behavior under uncertainty; (b) minimizing regret by learning unknown parameters. We characterize all approximate Nash equilibria among arms under UCB-S and show a $\tilde{\mathcal{O}} (\sqrt{KT})$ regret bound uniformly in every equilibrium. We also show that incentive-unaware algorithms generally fail to achieve low regret in the strategic click-bandit. Finally, we support our theoretical results by simulations of strategic arm behavior which confirm the effectiveness and robustness of our proposed incentive design.

Uplink rate-splitting multiple access (RSMA) requires optimization of decoding order and power allocation, while decoding order is a discrete variable, and it is very complex to find the optimal decoding order if the number of users is large enough. This letter proposes a low-complexity user pairing-based resource allocation algorithm with the objective of minimizing the maximum latency. Closed-form expressions for power and bandwidth allocation for a given latency are first derived. Then a bisection method is used to determine the minimum latency and optimal resource allocation. Finally, the proposed algorithm is compared with unpaired RSMA using an exhaustive method to obtain the optimal decoding order, unpaired RSMA using a suboptimal decoding order, paired non-orthogonal multiple access (NOMA) and unpaired NOMA. The results show that our proposed algorithm outperforms NOMA and achieves similar performance to unpaired RSMA. In addition, the complexity of the proposed algorithm is significantly reduced.

Structural discovery amongst a set of variables is of interest in both static and dynamic settings. In the presence of lead-lag dependencies in the data, the dynamics of the system can be represented through a structural equation model (SEM) that simultaneously captures the contemporaneous and temporal relationships amongst the variables, with the former encoded through a directed acyclic graph (DAG) for model identification. In many real applications, a partial ordering amongst the nodes of the DAG is available, which makes it either beneficial or imperative to incorporate it as a constraint in the problem formulation. This paper develops an algorithm that can seamlessly incorporate a priori partial ordering information for solving a linear SEM (also known as Structural Vector Autoregression) under a high-dimensional setting. The proposed algorithm is provably convergent to a stationary point, and exhibits competitive performance on both synthetic and real data sets.

The Frobenius norm is a frequent choice of norm for matrices. In particular, the underlying Frobenius inner product is typically used to evaluate the gradient of an objective with respect to matrix variable, such as those occuring in the training of neural networks. We provide a broader view on the Frobenius norm and inner product for linear maps or matrices, and establish their dependence on inner products in the domain and co-domain spaces. This shows that the classical Frobenius norm is merely one special element of a family of more general Frobenius-type norms. The significant extra freedom furnished by this realization can be used, among other things, to precondition neural network training.

Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) help address the question: How can the factors that influence the prediction of a predictive model be changed to achieve a more favorable outcome from a user's perspective? Thus, they bear the potential to guide the user's interaction with AI systems since they represent easy-to-understand explanations. To be applicable, CEs need to be realistic and actionable. In the literature, various methods have been proposed to generate CEs. However, the majority of research on CEs focuses on classification problems where questions like "What should I do to get my rejected loan approved?" are raised. In practice, answering questions like "What should I do to increase my salary?" are of a more regressive nature. In this paper, we introduce a novel method to generate CEs for a pre-trained regressor by first disentangling the label-relevant from the label-irrelevant dimensions in the latent space. CEs are then generated by combining the label-irrelevant dimensions and the predefined output. The intuition behind this approach is that the ideal counterfactual search should focus on the label-irrelevant characteristics of the input and suggest changes toward target-relevant characteristics. Searching in the latent space could help achieve this goal. We show that our method maintains the characteristics of the query sample during the counterfactual search. In various experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive based on different quality measures on image and tabular datasets in regression problem settings. It efficiently returns results closer to the original data manifold compared to three state-of-the-art methods, which is essential for realistic high-dimensional machine learning applications. Our code will be made available as an open-source package upon the publication of this work.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used in critical fields such as healthcare, education, and finance due to their remarkable proficiency in various language-related tasks. However, LLMs are prone to generating factually incorrect responses or "hallucinations," which can lead to a loss of credibility and trust among users. To address this issue, we propose a multi-stage framework that generates the rationale first, verifies and refines incorrect ones, and uses them as supporting references to generate the answer. The generated rationale enhances the transparency of the answer and our framework provides insights into how the model arrived at this answer, by using this rationale and the references to the context. In this paper, we demonstrate its effectiveness in improving the quality of responses to drug-related inquiries in the life sciences industry. Our framework improves traditional Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) by enabling OpenAI GPT-3.5-turbo to be 14-25% more faithful and 16-22% more accurate on two datasets. Furthermore, fine-tuning samples based on our framework improves the accuracy of smaller open-access LLMs by 33-42% and competes with RAG on commercial models.

Model averaging has received much attention in the past two decades, which integrates available information by averaging over potential models. Although various model averaging methods have been developed, there are few literatures on the theoretical properties of model averaging from the perspective of stability, and the majority of these methods constrain model weights to a simplex. The aim of this paper is to introduce stability from statistical learning theory into model averaging. Thus, we define the stability, asymptotic empirical risk minimizer, generalization, and consistency of model averaging and study the relationship among them. Our results indicate that stability can ensure that model averaging has good generalization performance and consistency under reasonable conditions, where consistency means model averaging estimator can asymptotically minimize the mean squared prediction error. We also propose a L2-penalty model averaging method without limiting model weights and prove that it has stability and consistency. In order to reduce the impact of tuning parameter selection, we use 10-fold cross-validation to select a candidate set of tuning parameters and perform a weighted average of the estimators of model weights based on estimation errors. The Monte Carlo simulation and an illustrative application demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method.

Graphs are important data representations for describing objects and their relationships, which appear in a wide diversity of real-world scenarios. As one of a critical problem in this area, graph generation considers learning the distributions of given graphs and generating more novel graphs. Owing to their wide range of applications, generative models for graphs, which have a rich history, however, are traditionally hand-crafted and only capable of modeling a few statistical properties of graphs. Recent advances in deep generative models for graph generation is an important step towards improving the fidelity of generated graphs and paves the way for new kinds of applications. This article provides an extensive overview of the literature in the field of deep generative models for graph generation. Firstly, the formal definition of deep generative models for the graph generation and the preliminary knowledge are provided. Secondly, taxonomies of deep generative models for both unconditional and conditional graph generation are proposed respectively; the existing works of each are compared and analyzed. After that, an overview of the evaluation metrics in this specific domain is provided. Finally, the applications that deep graph generation enables are summarized and five promising future research directions are highlighted.

Defensive deception is a promising approach for cyberdefense. Although defensive deception is increasingly popular in the research community, there has not been a systematic investigation of its key components, the underlying principles, and its tradeoffs in various problem settings. This survey paper focuses on defensive deception research centered on game theory and machine learning, since these are prominent families of artificial intelligence approaches that are widely employed in defensive deception. This paper brings forth insights, lessons, and limitations from prior work. It closes with an outline of some research directions to tackle major gaps in current defensive deception research.

Although measuring held-out accuracy has been the primary approach to evaluate generalization, it often overestimates the performance of NLP models, while alternative approaches for evaluating models either focus on individual tasks or on specific behaviors. Inspired by principles of behavioral testing in software engineering, we introduce CheckList, a task-agnostic methodology for testing NLP models. CheckList includes a matrix of general linguistic capabilities and test types that facilitate comprehensive test ideation, as well as a software tool to generate a large and diverse number of test cases quickly. We illustrate the utility of CheckList with tests for three tasks, identifying critical failures in both commercial and state-of-art models. In a user study, a team responsible for a commercial sentiment analysis model found new and actionable bugs in an extensively tested model. In another user study, NLP practitioners with CheckList created twice as many tests, and found almost three times as many bugs as users without it.

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