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Robotic manipulators are critical in many applications but are known to degrade over time. This degradation is influenced by the nature of the tasks performed by the robot. Tasks with higher severity, such as handling heavy payloads, can accelerate the degradation process. One way this degradation is reflected is in the position accuracy of the robot's end-effector. In this paper, we present a prognostic modeling framework that predicts a robotic manipulator's Remaining Useful Life (RUL) while accounting for the effects of task severity. Our framework represents the robot's position accuracy as a Brownian motion process with a random drift parameter that is influenced by task severity. The dynamic nature of task severity is modeled using a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC). To evaluate RUL, we discuss two approaches -- (1) a novel closed-form expression for Remaining Lifetime Distribution (RLD), and (2) Monte Carlo simulations, commonly used in prognostics literature. Theoretical results establish the equivalence between these RUL computation approaches. We validate our framework through experiments using two distinct physics-based simulators for planar and spatial robot fleets. Our findings show that robots in both fleets experience shorter RUL when handling a higher proportion of high-severity tasks.

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機器人(英語:Robot)包括一切模擬人類行為或思想與模擬其他生物的機械(如機器狗,機器貓等)。狹義上對機器人的定義還有很多分類法及爭議,有些電腦程序甚至也被稱為機器人。在當代工業中,機器人指能自動運行任務的人造機器設備,用以取代或協助人類工作,一般會是機電設備,由計算機程序或是電子電路控制。

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