A treatment policy defines when and what treatments are applied to affect some outcome of interest. Data-driven decision-making requires the ability to predict what happens if a policy is changed. Existing methods that predict how the outcome evolves under different scenarios assume that the tentative sequences of future treatments are fixed in advance, while in practice the treatments are determined stochastically by a policy and may depend, for example, on the efficiency of previous treatments. Therefore, the current methods are not applicable if the treatment policy is unknown or a counterfactual analysis is needed. To handle these limitations, we model the treatments and outcomes jointly in continuous time, by combining Gaussian processes and point processes. Our model enables the estimation of a treatment policy from observational sequences of treatments and outcomes, and it can predict the interventional and counterfactual progression of the outcome after an intervention on the treatment policy (in contrast with the causal effect of a single treatment). We show with real-world and semi-synthetic data on blood glucose progression that our method can answer causal queries more accurately than existing alternatives.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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Machine learning (ML) components are increasingly incorporated into software products, yet developers face challenges in transitioning from ML prototypes to products. Academic researchers struggle to propose solutions to these challenges and evaluate interventions because they often do not have access to close-sourced ML products from industry. In this study, we define and identify open-source ML products, curating a dataset of 262 repositories from GitHub, to facilitate further research and education. As a start, we explore six broad research questions related to different development activities and report 21 findings from a sample of 30 ML products from the dataset. Our findings reveal a variety of development practices and architectural decisions surrounding different types and uses of ML models that offer ample opportunities for future research innovations. We also find very little evidence of industry best practices such as model testing and pipeline automation within the open-source ML products, which leaves room for further investigation to understand its potential impact on the development and eventual end-user experience for the products.
The analysis of public affairs documents is crucial for citizens as it promotes transparency, accountability, and informed decision-making. It allows citizens to understand government policies, participate in public discourse, and hold representatives accountable. This is crucial, and sometimes a matter of life or death, for companies whose operation depend on certain regulations. Large Language Models (LLMs) have the potential to greatly enhance the analysis of public affairs documents by effectively processing and understanding the complex language used in such documents. In this work, we analyze the performance of LLMs in classifying public affairs documents. As a natural multi-label task, the classification of these documents presents important challenges. In this work, we use a regex-powered tool to collect a database of public affairs documents with more than 33K samples and 22.5M tokens. Our experiments assess the performance of 4 different Spanish LLMs to classify up to 30 different topics in the data in different configurations. The results shows that LLMs can be of great use to process domain-specific documents, such as those in the domain of public affairs.
Line attributes such as width and dashing are commonly used to encode information. However, many questions on the perception of line attributes remain, such as how many levels of attribute variation can be distinguished or which line attributes are the preferred choices for which tasks. We conducted three studies to develop guidelines for using stylized lines to encode scalar data. In our first study, participants drew stylized lines to encode uncertainty information. Uncertainty is usually visualized alongside other data. Therefore, alternative visual channels are important for the visualization of uncertainty. Additionally, uncertainty -- e.g., in weather forecasts -- is a familiar topic to most people. Thus, we picked it for our visualization scenarios in study 1. We used the results of our study to determine the most common line attributes for drawing uncertainty: Dashing, luminance, wave amplitude, and width. While those line attributes were especially common for drawing uncertainty, they are also commonly used in other areas. In studies 2 and 3, we investigated the discriminability of the line attributes determined in study 1. Studies 2 and 3 did not require specific application areas; thus, their results apply to visualizing any scalar data in line attributes. We evaluated the just-noticeable differences (JND) and derived recommendations for perceptually distinct line levels. We found that participants could discriminate considerably more levels for the line attribute width than for wave amplitude, dashing, or luminance.
There are a number of measures of direct and indirect effects in the literature. They are suitable in some cases and unsuitable in others. We describe a case where the existing measures are unsuitable and propose new suitable ones. We also show that the new measures can partially handle unmeasured treatment-outcome confounding, and bound long-term effects by combining experimental and observational data.
Before and after study frameworks are widely adopted to evaluate the effectiveness of transportation policies and emerging technologies. However, many factors such as seasonal factors, holidays, and lane closure might interfere with the evaluation process by inducing variation in traffic volume during the before and after periods. In practice, limited effort has been made to eliminate the effects of these factors. In this study, an extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)-based propensity score matching method is proposed to reduce the biases caused by traffic volume variation during the before and after periods. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a corridor in the City of Chandler, Arizona where an advanced traffic signal control system has been recently implemented was selected. The results indicated that the proposed method is able to effectively eliminate the variation in traffic volume caused by the COVID-19 global Pandemic during the evaluation process. In addition, the results of the t-test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test demonstrated that the proposed method outperforms other conventional propensity score matching methods. The application of the proposed method is also transferrable to other before and after evaluation studies and can significantly assist the transportation engineers to eliminate the impacts of traffic volume variation on the evaluation process.
We survey analytical methods and evaluation results for the performance assessment of caching strategies. Knapsack solutions are derived, which provide static caching bounds for independent requests and general bounds for dynamic caching under arbitrary request pattern. We summarize Markov- and time-to-live-based solutions, which assume specific stochastic processes for capturing web request streams and timing. We compare the performance of caching strategies with different knowledge about the properties of data objects regarding a broad set of caching demands. The efficiency of web caching must regard benefits for network wide traffic load, energy consumption and quality-of-service aspects in a tradeoff with costs for updating and storage overheads.
Deep neural networks have revolutionized many machine learning tasks in power systems, ranging from pattern recognition to signal processing. The data in these tasks is typically represented in Euclidean domains. Nevertheless, there is an increasing number of applications in power systems, where data are collected from non-Euclidean domains and represented as the graph-structured data with high dimensional features and interdependency among nodes. The complexity of graph-structured data has brought significant challenges to the existing deep neural networks defined in Euclidean domains. Recently, many studies on extending deep neural networks for graph-structured data in power systems have emerged. In this paper, a comprehensive overview of graph neural networks (GNNs) in power systems is proposed. Specifically, several classical paradigms of GNNs structures (e.g., graph convolutional networks, graph recurrent neural networks, graph attention networks, graph generative networks, spatial-temporal graph convolutional networks, and hybrid forms of GNNs) are summarized, and key applications in power systems such as fault diagnosis, power prediction, power flow calculation, and data generation are reviewed in detail. Furthermore, main issues and some research trends about the applications of GNNs in power systems are discussed.
This work considers the question of how convenient access to copious data impacts our ability to learn causal effects and relations. In what ways is learning causality in the era of big data different from -- or the same as -- the traditional one? To answer this question, this survey provides a comprehensive and structured review of both traditional and frontier methods in learning causality and relations along with the connections between causality and machine learning. This work points out on a case-by-case basis how big data facilitates, complicates, or motivates each approach.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are successful in many computer vision tasks. However, the most accurate DNNs require millions of parameters and operations, making them energy, computation and memory intensive. This impedes the deployment of large DNNs in low-power devices with limited compute resources. Recent research improves DNN models by reducing the memory requirement, energy consumption, and number of operations without significantly decreasing the accuracy. This paper surveys the progress of low-power deep learning and computer vision, specifically in regards to inference, and discusses the methods for compacting and accelerating DNN models. The techniques can be divided into four major categories: (1) parameter quantization and pruning, (2) compressed convolutional filters and matrix factorization, (3) network architecture search, and (4) knowledge distillation. We analyze the accuracy, advantages, disadvantages, and potential solutions to the problems with the techniques in each category. We also discuss new evaluation metrics as a guideline for future research.
Deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have recently achieved great success in many visual recognition tasks. However, existing deep neural network models are computationally expensive and memory intensive, hindering their deployment in devices with low memory resources or in applications with strict latency requirements. Therefore, a natural thought is to perform model compression and acceleration in deep networks without significantly decreasing the model performance. During the past few years, tremendous progress has been made in this area. In this paper, we survey the recent advanced techniques for compacting and accelerating CNNs model developed. These techniques are roughly categorized into four schemes: parameter pruning and sharing, low-rank factorization, transferred/compact convolutional filters, and knowledge distillation. Methods of parameter pruning and sharing will be described at the beginning, after that the other techniques will be introduced. For each scheme, we provide insightful analysis regarding the performance, related applications, advantages, and drawbacks etc. Then we will go through a few very recent additional successful methods, for example, dynamic capacity networks and stochastic depths networks. After that, we survey the evaluation matrix, the main datasets used for evaluating the model performance and recent benchmarking efforts. Finally, we conclude this paper, discuss remaining challenges and possible directions on this topic.
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