Researchers have long run regressions of an outcome variable (Y) on a treatment (D) and covariates (X) to estimate treatment effects. Even absent unobserved confounding, the regression coefficient on D in this setup reports a conditional variance weighted average of strata-wise average effects, not generally equal to the average treatment effect (ATE). Numerous proposals have been offered to cope with this "weighting problem", including interpretational tools to help characterize the weights and diagnostic aids to help researchers assess the potential severity of this problem. We make two contributions that together suggest an alternative direction for researchers and this literature. Our first contribution is conceptual, demystifying these weights. Simply put, under heterogeneous treatment effects (and varying probability of treatment), the linear regression of Y on D and X will be misspecified. The "weights" of regression offer one characterization for the coefficient from regression that helps to clarify how it will depart from the ATE. We also derive a more general expression for the weights than what is usually referenced. Our second contribution is practical: as these weights simply characterize misspecification bias, we suggest simply avoiding them through an approach that tolerate heterogeneous effects. A wide range of longstanding alternatives (regression-imputation/g-computation, interacted regression, and balancing weights) relax specification assumptions to allow heterogeneous effects. We make explicit the assumption of "separate linearity", under which each potential outcome is separately linear in X. This relaxation of conventional linearity offers a common justification for all of these methods and avoids the weighting problem, at an efficiency cost that will be small when there are few covariates relative to sample size.
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In adaptive clinical trials, the conventional confidence interval (CI) for a treatment effect is prone to undesirable properties such as undercoverage and potential inconsistency with the final hypothesis testing decision. Accordingly, as is stated in recent regulatory guidance on adaptive designs, there is the need for caution in the interpretation of CIs constructed during and after an adaptive clinical trial. However, it may be unclear which of the available CIs in the literature are preferable. This paper is the second in a two-part series that explores CIs for adaptive trials. Part I provided a methodological review of approaches to construct CIs for adaptive designs. In this paper (part II), we present an extended case study based around a two-stage group sequential trial, including a comprehensive simulation study of the proposed CIs for this setting. This facilitates an expanded description of considerations around what makes for an effective CI procedure following an adaptive trial. We show that the CIs can have notably different properties. Finally, we propose a set of guidelines for researchers around the choice of CIs and the reporting of CIs following an adaptive design.
Virtual environments provide a rich and controlled setting for collecting detailed data on human behavior, offering unique opportunities for predicting human trajectories in dynamic scenes. However, most existing approaches have overlooked the potential of these environments, focusing instead on static contexts without considering userspecific factors. Employing the CREATTIVE3D dataset, our work models trajectories recorded in virtual reality (VR) scenes for diverse situations including road-crossing tasks with user interactions and simulated visual impairments. We propose Diverse Context VR Human Motion Prediction (DiVR), a cross-modal transformer based on the Perceiver architecture that integrates both static and dynamic scene context using a heterogeneous graph convolution network. We conduct extensive experiments comparing DiVR against existing architectures including MLP, LSTM, and transformers with gaze and point cloud context. Additionally, we also stress test our model's generalizability across different users, tasks, and scenes. Results show that DiVR achieves higher accuracy and adaptability compared to other models and to static graphs. This work highlights the advantages of using VR datasets for context-aware human trajectory modeling, with potential applications in enhancing user experiences in the metaverse. Our source code is publicly available at //gitlab.inria.fr/ffrancog/creattive3d-divr-model.
We perform a quantitative assessment of different strategies to compute the contribution due to surface tension in incompressible two-phase flows using a conservative level set (CLS) method. More specifically, we compare classical approaches, such as the direct computation of the curvature from the level set or the Laplace-Beltrami operator, with an evolution equation for the mean curvature recently proposed in literature. We consider the test case of a static bubble, for which an exact solution for the pressure jump across the interface is available, and the test case of an oscillating bubble, showing pros and cons of the different approaches.
Potato yield is an important metric for farmers to further optimize their cultivation practices. Potato yield can be estimated on a harvester using an RGB-D camera that can estimate the three-dimensional (3D) volume of individual potato tubers. A challenge, however, is that the 3D shape derived from RGB-D images is only partially completed, underestimating the actual volume. To address this issue, we developed a 3D shape completion network, called CoRe++, which can complete the 3D shape from RGB-D images. CoRe++ is a deep learning network that consists of a convolutional encoder and a decoder. The encoder compresses RGB-D images into latent vectors that are used by the decoder to complete the 3D shape using the deep signed distance field network (DeepSDF). To evaluate our CoRe++ network, we collected partial and complete 3D point clouds of 339 potato tubers on an operational harvester in Japan. On the 1425 RGB-D images in the test set (representing 51 unique potato tubers), our network achieved a completion accuracy of 2.8 mm on average. For volumetric estimation, the root mean squared error (RMSE) was 22.6 ml, and this was better than the RMSE of the linear regression (31.1 ml) and the base model (36.9 ml). We found that the RMSE can be further reduced to 18.2 ml when performing the 3D shape completion in the center of the RGB-D image. With an average 3D shape completion time of 10 milliseconds per tuber, we can conclude that CoRe++ is both fast and accurate enough to be implemented on an operational harvester for high-throughput potato yield estimation. CoRe++'s high-throughput and accurate processing allows it to be applied to other tuber, fruit and vegetable crops, thereby enabling versatile, accurate and real-time yield monitoring in precision agriculture. Our code, network weights and dataset are publicly available at //github.com/UTokyo-FieldPhenomics-Lab/corepp.git.
The Poisson compound decision problem is a classical problem in statistics, for which parametric and nonparametric empirical Bayes methodologies are available to estimate the Poisson's means in static or batch domains. In this paper, we consider the Poisson compound decision problem in a streaming or online domain. By relying on a quasi-Bayesian approach, often referred to as Newton's algorithm, we obtain sequential Poisson's mean estimates that are of easy evaluation, computationally efficient and with a constant computational cost as data increase, which is desirable for streaming data. Large sample asymptotic properties of the proposed estimates are investigated, also providing frequentist guarantees in terms of a regret analysis. We validate empirically our methodology, both on synthetic and real data, comparing against the most popular alternatives.
Recently, general fractional calculus was introduced by Kochubei (2011) and Luchko (2021) as a further generalisation of fractional calculus, where the derivative and integral operator admits arbitrary kernel. Such a formalism will have many applications in physics and engineering, since the kernel is no longer restricted. We first extend the work of Al-Refai and Luchko (2023) on finite interval to arbitrary orders. Followed by, developing an efficient Petrov-Galerkin scheme by introducing Jacobi convolution polynomials as basis functions. A notable property of this basis function, the general fractional derivative of Jacobi convolution polynomial is a shifted Jacobi polynomial. Thus, with a suitable test function it results in diagonal stiffness matrix, hence, the efficiency in implementation. Furthermore, our method is constructed for any arbitrary kernel including that of fractional operator, since, its a special case of general fractional operator.
We develop a powerful and general method to provide arbitrarily accurate rigorous upper and lower bounds for Lyapunov exponents of stochastic flows. Our approach is based on computer-assisted tools, the adjoint method and established results on the ergodicity of diffusion processes. We do not require any structural assumptions on the stochastic system and work under mild hypoellipticity conditions outside of perturbative regimes. Therefore, our method allows for the treatment of systems that were so far inaccessible from existing mathematical tools. We demonstrate our method to exhibit the chaotic nature of three non-Hamiltonian systems. Finally, we show that our approach is robust to continuation methods to produce bounds on Lyapunov exponents for large parameter regions.
In this communication, we deal with the question of automatic target detection, recognition and tracking (ATD/R/T) algorithms performance assessment. We propose a complete methodology of evaluation which approaches objective image datasets development and adapted metrics definition for the different tasks (detection, recognition and tracking). We present some performance results which are currently processed in a French-MoD program called 2ACI (``Acquisition Automatique de Cibles par Imagerie``).
Peptides are ubiquitous and important biologically derived molecules, that have been found to self-assemble to form a wide array of structures. Extensive research has explored the impacts of both internal chemical composition and external environmental stimuli on the self-assembly behaviour of these systems. However, there is yet to be a systematic study that gathers this rich literature data and collectively examines these experimental factors to provide a global picture of the fundamental rules that govern protein self-assembly behavior. In this work, we curate a peptide assembly database through a combination of manual processing by human experts and literature mining facilitated by a large language model. As a result, we collect more than 1,000 experimental data entries with information about peptide sequence, experimental conditions and corresponding self-assembly phases. Utilizing the collected data, ML models are trained and evaluated, demonstrating excellent accuracy (>80\%) and efficiency in peptide assembly phase classification. Moreover, we fine-tune our GPT model for peptide literature mining with the developed dataset, which exhibits markedly superior performance in extracting information from academic publications relative to the pre-trained model. We find that this workflow can substantially improve efficiency when exploring potential self-assembling peptide candidates, through guiding experimental work, while also deepening our understanding of the mechanisms governing peptide self-assembly. In doing so, novel structures can be accessed for a range of applications including sensing, catalysis and biomaterials.
Although measuring held-out accuracy has been the primary approach to evaluate generalization, it often overestimates the performance of NLP models, while alternative approaches for evaluating models either focus on individual tasks or on specific behaviors. Inspired by principles of behavioral testing in software engineering, we introduce CheckList, a task-agnostic methodology for testing NLP models. CheckList includes a matrix of general linguistic capabilities and test types that facilitate comprehensive test ideation, as well as a software tool to generate a large and diverse number of test cases quickly. We illustrate the utility of CheckList with tests for three tasks, identifying critical failures in both commercial and state-of-art models. In a user study, a team responsible for a commercial sentiment analysis model found new and actionable bugs in an extensively tested model. In another user study, NLP practitioners with CheckList created twice as many tests, and found almost three times as many bugs as users without it.
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