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Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a workhorse algorithm for solving large-scale optimization problems in data science and machine learning. Understanding the convergence of SGD is hence of fundamental importance. In this work we examine the SGD convergence (with various step sizes) when applied to unconstrained convex quadratic programming (essentially least-squares (LS) problems), and in particular analyze the error components respect to the eigenvectors of the Hessian. The main message is that the convergence depends largely on the corresponding eigenvalues (singular values of the coefficient matrix in the LS context), namely the components for the large singular values converge faster in the initial phase. We then show there is a phase transition in the convergence where the convergence speed of the components, especially those corresponding to the larger singular values, will decrease. Finally, we show that the convergence of the overall error (in the solution) tends to decay as more iterations are run, that is, the initial convergence is faster than the asymptote.

Static analysis by abstract interpretation is generally designed to be "sound", that is, it should not claim to establish properties that do not hold-in other words, not provide "false negatives" about possible bugs. A rarer requirement is that it should be "complete", meaning that it should be able to infer certain properties if they hold. This paper describes a number of practical issues and questions related to completeness that I have come across over the years.

Physically motivated stochastic dynamics are often used to sample from high-dimensional distributions. However such dynamics often get stuck in specific regions of their state space and mix very slowly to the desired stationary state. This causes such systems to approximately sample from a metastable distribution which is usually quite different from the desired, stationary distribution of the dynamic. We rigorously show that, in the case of multi-variable discrete distributions, the true model describing the stationary distribution can be recovered from samples produced from a metastable distribution under minimal assumptions about the system. This follows from a fundamental observation that the single-variable conditionals of metastable distributions that satisfy a strong metastability condition are on average close to those of the stationary distribution. This holds even when the metastable distribution differs considerably from the true model in terms of global metrics like Kullback-Leibler divergence or total variation distance. This property allows us to learn the true model using a conditional likelihood based estimator, even when the samples come from a metastable distribution concentrated in a small region of the state space. Explicit examples of such metastable states can be constructed from regions that effectively bottleneck the probability flow and cause poor mixing of the Markov chain. For specific cases of binary pairwise undirected graphical models (i.e. Ising models), we extend our results to further rigorously show that data coming from metastable states can be used to learn the parameters of the energy function and recover the structure of the model.

Identifying predictive covariates, which forecast individual treatment effectiveness, is crucial for decision-making across different disciplines such as personalized medicine. These covariates, referred to as biomarkers, are extracted from pre-treatment data, often within randomized controlled trials, and should be distinguished from prognostic biomarkers, which are independent of treatment assignment. Our study focuses on discovering predictive imaging biomarkers, specific image features, by leveraging pre-treatment images to uncover new causal relationships. Unlike labor-intensive approaches relying on handcrafted features prone to bias, we present a novel task of directly learning predictive features from images. We propose an evaluation protocol to assess a model's ability to identify predictive imaging biomarkers and differentiate them from purely prognostic ones by employing statistical testing and a comprehensive analysis of image feature attribution. We explore the suitability of deep learning models originally developed for estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) for this task, which have been assessed primarily for their precision of CATE estimation while overlooking the evaluation of imaging biomarker discovery. Our proof-of-concept analysis demonstrates the feasibility and potential of our approach in discovering and validating predictive imaging biomarkers from synthetic outcomes and real-world image datasets. Our code is available at \url{//github.com/MIC-DKFZ/predictive_image_biomarker_analysis}.

We systematically investigate the preservation of differential privacy in functional data analysis, beginning with functional mean estimation and extending to varying coefficient model estimation. Our work introduces a distributed learning framework involving multiple servers, each responsible for collecting several sparsely observed functions. This hierarchical setup introduces a mixed notion of privacy. Within each function, user-level differential privacy is applied to $m$ discrete observations. At the server level, central differential privacy is deployed to account for the centralised nature of data collection. Across servers, only private information is exchanged, adhering to federated differential privacy constraints. To address this complex hierarchy, we employ minimax theory to reveal several fundamental phenomena: from sparse to dense functional data analysis, from user-level to central and federated differential privacy costs, and the intricate interplay between different regimes of functional data analysis and privacy preservation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to rigorously examine functional data estimation under multiple privacy constraints. Our theoretical findings are complemented by efficient private algorithms and extensive numerical evidence, providing a comprehensive exploration of this challenging problem.

Generalized linear models are a popular tool in applied statistics, with their maximum likelihood estimators enjoying asymptotic Gaussianity and efficiency. As all models are wrong, it is desirable to understand these estimators' behaviours under model misspecification. We study semiparametric multilevel generalized linear models, where only the conditional mean of the response is taken to follow a specific parametric form. Pre-existing estimators from mixed effects models and generalized estimating equations require specificaiton of a conditional covariance, which when misspecified can result in inefficient estimates of fixed effects parameters. It is nevertheless often computationally attractive to consider a restricted, finite dimensional class of estimators, as these models naturally imply. We introduce sandwich regression, that selects the estimator of minimal variance within a parametric class of estimators over all distributions in the full semiparametric model. We demonstrate numerically on simulated and real data the attractive improvements our sandwich regression approach enjoys over classical mixed effects models and generalized estimating equations.

We consider the problem of estimating the error when solving a system of differential algebraic equations. Richardson extrapolation is a classical technique that can be used to judge when computational errors are irrelevant and estimate the discretization error. We have simulated molecular dynamics with constraints using the GROMACS library and found that the output is not always amenable to Richardson extrapolation. We derive and illustrate Richardson extrapolation using a variety of numerical experiments. We identify two necessary conditions that are not always satisfied by the GROMACS library.

In longitudinal observational studies with time-to-event outcomes, a common objective in causal analysis is to estimate the causal survival curve under hypothetical intervention scenarios. The g-formula is a useful tool for this analysis. To enhance the traditional parametric g-formula, we developed an alternative g-formula estimator, which incorporates the Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into the modeling of the time-evolving generative components, aiming to mitigate the bias due to model misspecification. We focus on binary time-varying treatments and introduce a general class of g-formulas for discrete survival data that can incorporate the longitudinal balancing scores. The minimum sufficient formulation of these longitudinal balancing scores is linked to the nature of treatment strategies, i.e., static or dynamic. For each type of treatment strategy, we provide posterior sampling algorithms. We conducted simulations to illustrate the empirical performance of the proposed method and demonstrate its practical utility using data from the Yale New Haven Health System's electronic health records.

Clustering and outlier detection are two important tasks in data mining. Outliers frequently interfere with clustering algorithms to determine the similarity between objects, resulting in unreliable clustering results. Currently, only a few clustering algorithms (e.g., DBSCAN) have the ability to detect outliers to eliminate interference. For other clustering algorithms, it is tedious to introduce another outlier detection task to eliminate outliers before each clustering process. Obviously, how to equip more clustering algorithms with outlier detection ability is very meaningful. Although a common strategy allows clustering algorithms to detect outliers based on the distance between objects and clusters, it is contradictory to improving the performance of clustering algorithms on the datasets with outliers. In this paper, we propose a novel outlier detection approach, called ODAR, for clustering. ODAR maps outliers and normal objects into two separated clusters by feature transformation. As a result, any clustering algorithm can detect outliers by identifying clusters. Experiments show that ODAR is robust to diverse datasets. Compared with baseline methods, the clustering algorithms achieve the best on 7 out of 10 datasets with the help of ODAR, with at least 5% improvement in accuracy.

Mass lumping techniques are commonly employed in explicit time integration schemes for problems in structural dynamics and both avoid solving costly linear systems with the consistent mass matrix and increase the critical time step. In isogeometric analysis, the critical time step is constrained by so-called "outlier" frequencies, representing the inaccurate high frequency part of the spectrum. Removing or dampening these high frequencies is paramount for fast explicit solution techniques. In this work, we propose mass lumping and outlier removal techniques for nontrivial geometries, including multipatch and trimmed geometries. Our lumping strategies provably do not deteriorate (and often improve) the CFL condition of the original problem and are combined with deflation techniques to remove persistent outlier frequencies. Numerical experiments reveal the advantages of the method, especially for simulations covering large time spans where they may halve the number of iterations with little or no effect on the numerical solution.