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Variational inference is an alternative estimation technique for Bayesian models. Recent work shows that variational methods provide consistent estimation via efficient, deterministic algorithms. Other tools, such as model selection using variational AICs (VAIC) have been developed and studied for the linear regression case. While mixed effects models have enjoyed some study in the variational context, tools for model selection are lacking. One important feature of model selection in mixed effects models, particularly longitudinal models, is the selection of the random effects which in turn determine the covariance structure for the repeatedly sampled outcome. To address this, we derive a VAIC specifically for variational mixed effects (VME) models. We also implement a parameter-efficient VME as part of our study which reduces any general random effects structure down to a single subject-specific score. This model accommodates a wide range of random effect structures including random intercept and slope models as well as random functional effects. Our VAIC can model and perform selection on a variety of VME models including more classic longitudinal models as well as longitudinal scalar-on-function regression. As we demonstrate empirically, our VAIC performs well in discriminating between correctly and incorrectly specified random effects structures. Finally, we illustrate the use of VAICs for VMEs on two datasets: a study of lead levels in children and a study of diffusion tensor imaging.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · Learning · Processing(編程語言) · 回合 · 強化學習 ·
2023 年 9 月 20 日

Delays are inherent to most dynamical systems. Besides shifting the process in time, they can significantly affect their performance. For this reason, it is usually valuable to study the delay and account for it. Because they are dynamical systems, it is of no surprise that sequential decision-making problems such as Markov decision processes (MDP) can also be affected by delays. These processes are the foundational framework of reinforcement learning (RL), a paradigm whose goal is to create artificial agents capable of learning to maximise their utility by interacting with their environment. RL has achieved strong, sometimes astonishing, empirical results, but delays are seldom explicitly accounted for. The understanding of the impact of delay on the MDP is limited. In this dissertation, we propose to study the delay in the agent's observation of the state of the environment or in the execution of the agent's actions. We will repeatedly change our point of view on the problem to reveal some of its structure and peculiarities. A wide spectrum of delays will be considered, and potential solutions will be presented. This dissertation also aims to draw links between celebrated frameworks of the RL literature and the one of delays.

Recent advances in Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have made it possible to reconstruct and reanimate dynamic portrait scenes with control over head-pose, facial expressions and viewing direction. However, training such models assumes photometric consistency over the deformed region e.g. the face must be evenly lit as it deforms with changing head-pose and facial expression. Such photometric consistency across frames of a video is hard to maintain, even in studio environments, thus making the created reanimatable neural portraits prone to artifacts during reanimation. In this work, we propose CoDyNeRF, a system that enables the creation of fully controllable 3D portraits in real-world capture conditions. CoDyNeRF learns to approximate illumination dependent effects via a dynamic appearance model in the canonical space that is conditioned on predicted surface normals and the facial expressions and head-pose deformations. The surface normals prediction is guided using 3DMM normals that act as a coarse prior for the normals of the human head, where direct prediction of normals is hard due to rigid and non-rigid deformations induced by head-pose and facial expression changes. Using only a smartphone-captured short video of a subject for training, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on free view synthesis of a portrait scene with explicit head pose and expression controls, and realistic lighting effects. The project page can be found here: //shahrukhathar.github.io/2023/08/22/CoDyNeRF.html

Active fault tolerance is essential for robot swarms to retain long-term autonomy. Previous work on swarm fault tolerance focuses on reacting to electro-mechanical faults that are spontaneously injected into robot sensors and actuators. Resolving faults once they have manifested as failures is an inefficient approach, and there are some safety-critical scenarios in which any kind of robot failure is unacceptable. We propose a predictive approach to fault tolerance, based on the principle of preemptive maintenance, in which potential faults are autonomously detected and resolved before they manifest as failures. Our approach is shown to improve swarm performance and prevent robot failure in the cases tested.

In this work, we propose to utilize a variational autoencoder (VAE) for channel estimation (CE) in underdetermined (UD) systems. The basis of the method forms a recently proposed concept in which a VAE is trained on channel state information (CSI) data and used to parameterize an approximation to the mean squared error (MSE)-optimal estimator. The contributions in this work extend the existing framework from fully-determined (FD) to UD systems, which are of high practical relevance. Particularly noteworthy is the extension of the estimator variant, which does not require perfect CSI during its offline training phase. This is a significant advantage compared to most other deep learning (DL)-based CE methods, where perfect CSI during the training phase is a crucial prerequisite. Numerical simulations for hybrid and wideband systems demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed methods compared to related estimators.

Deep neural networks have shown impressive performance for image-based disease detection. Performance is commonly evaluated through clinical validation on independent test sets to demonstrate clinically acceptable accuracy. Reporting good performance metrics on test sets, however, is not always a sufficient indication of the generalizability and robustness of an algorithm. In particular, when the test data is drawn from the same distribution as the training data, the iid test set performance can be an unreliable estimate of the accuracy on new data. In this paper, we employ stress testing to assess model robustness and subgroup performance disparities in disease detection models. We design progressive stress testing using five different bidirectional and unidirectional image perturbations with six different severity levels. As a use case, we apply stress tests to measure the robustness of disease detection models for chest X-ray and skin lesion images, and demonstrate the importance of studying class and domain-specific model behaviour. Our experiments indicate that some models may yield more robust and equitable performance than others. We also find that pretraining characteristics play an important role in downstream robustness. We conclude that progressive stress testing is a viable and important tool and should become standard practice in the clinical validation of image-based disease detection models.

Summarization is an important application of large language models (LLMs). Most previous evaluation of summarization models has focused on their performance in content selection, grammaticality and coherence. However, it is well known that LLMs reproduce and reinforce harmful social biases. This raises the question: Do these biases affect model outputs in a relatively constrained setting like summarization? To help answer this question, we first motivate and introduce a number of definitions for biased behaviours in summarization models, along with practical measures to quantify them. Since we find biases inherent to the input document can confound our analysis, we additionally propose a method to generate input documents with carefully controlled demographic attributes. This allows us to sidestep this issue, while still working with somewhat realistic input documents. Finally, we apply our measures to summaries generated by both purpose-built summarization models and general purpose chat models. We find that content selection in single document summarization seems to be largely unaffected by bias, while hallucinations exhibit evidence of biases propagating to generated summaries.

In the era of deep learning, modeling for most NLP tasks has converged to several mainstream paradigms. For example, we usually adopt the sequence labeling paradigm to solve a bundle of tasks such as POS-tagging, NER, Chunking, and adopt the classification paradigm to solve tasks like sentiment analysis. With the rapid progress of pre-trained language models, recent years have observed a rising trend of Paradigm Shift, which is solving one NLP task by reformulating it as another one. Paradigm shift has achieved great success on many tasks, becoming a promising way to improve model performance. Moreover, some of these paradigms have shown great potential to unify a large number of NLP tasks, making it possible to build a single model to handle diverse tasks. In this paper, we review such phenomenon of paradigm shifts in recent years, highlighting several paradigms that have the potential to solve different NLP tasks.

Adversarial attack is a technique for deceiving Machine Learning (ML) models, which provides a way to evaluate the adversarial robustness. In practice, attack algorithms are artificially selected and tuned by human experts to break a ML system. However, manual selection of attackers tends to be sub-optimal, leading to a mistakenly assessment of model security. In this paper, a new procedure called Composite Adversarial Attack (CAA) is proposed for automatically searching the best combination of attack algorithms and their hyper-parameters from a candidate pool of \textbf{32 base attackers}. We design a search space where attack policy is represented as an attacking sequence, i.e., the output of the previous attacker is used as the initialization input for successors. Multi-objective NSGA-II genetic algorithm is adopted for finding the strongest attack policy with minimum complexity. The experimental result shows CAA beats 10 top attackers on 11 diverse defenses with less elapsed time (\textbf{6 $\times$ faster than AutoAttack}), and achieves the new state-of-the-art on $l_{\infty}$, $l_{2}$ and unrestricted adversarial attacks.

Embedding models for deterministic Knowledge Graphs (KG) have been extensively studied, with the purpose of capturing latent semantic relations between entities and incorporating the structured knowledge into machine learning. However, there are many KGs that model uncertain knowledge, which typically model the inherent uncertainty of relations facts with a confidence score, and embedding such uncertain knowledge represents an unresolved challenge. The capturing of uncertain knowledge will benefit many knowledge-driven applications such as question answering and semantic search by providing more natural characterization of the knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel uncertain KG embedding model UKGE, which aims to preserve both structural and uncertainty information of relation facts in the embedding space. Unlike previous models that characterize relation facts with binary classification techniques, UKGE learns embeddings according to the confidence scores of uncertain relation facts. To further enhance the precision of UKGE, we also introduce probabilistic soft logic to infer confidence scores for unseen relation facts during training. We propose and evaluate two variants of UKGE based on different learning objectives. Experiments are conducted on three real-world uncertain KGs via three tasks, i.e. confidence prediction, relation fact ranking, and relation fact classification. UKGE shows effectiveness in capturing uncertain knowledge by achieving promising results on these tasks, and consistently outperforms baselines on these tasks.

Link prediction for knowledge graphs is the task of predicting missing relationships between entities. Previous work on link prediction has focused on shallow, fast models which can scale to large knowledge graphs. However, these models learn less expressive features than deep, multi-layer models -- which potentially limits performance. In this work, we introduce ConvE, a multi-layer convolutional network model for link prediction, and report state-of-the-art results for several established datasets. We also show that the model is highly parameter efficient, yielding the same performance as DistMult and R-GCN with 8x and 17x fewer parameters. Analysis of our model suggests that it is particularly effective at modelling nodes with high indegree -- which are common in highly-connected, complex knowledge graphs such as Freebase and YAGO3. In addition, it has been noted that the WN18 and FB15k datasets suffer from test set leakage, due to inverse relations from the training set being present in the test set -- however, the extent of this issue has so far not been quantified. We find this problem to be severe: a simple rule-based model can achieve state-of-the-art results on both WN18 and FB15k. To ensure that models are evaluated on datasets where simply exploiting inverse relations cannot yield competitive results, we investigate and validate several commonly used datasets -- deriving robust variants where necessary. We then perform experiments on these robust datasets for our own and several previously proposed models, and find that ConvE achieves state-of-the-art Mean Reciprocal Rank across all datasets.

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