In this work we propose an adaptive multilevel version of subset simulation to estimate the probability of rare events for complex physical systems. Given a sequence of nested failure domains of increasing size, the rare event probability is expressed as a product of conditional probabilities. The proposed new estimator uses different model resolutions and varying numbers of samples across the hierarchy of nested failure sets. In order to dramatically reduce the computational cost, we construct the intermediate failure sets such that only a small number of expensive high-resolution model evaluations are needed, whilst the majority of samples can be taken from inexpensive low-resolution simulations. A key idea in our new estimator is the use of a posteriori error estimators combined with a selective mesh refinement strategy to guarantee the critical subset property that may be violated when changing model resolution from one failure set to the next. The efficiency gains and the statistical properties of the estimator are investigated both theoretically via shaking transformations, as well as numerically. On a model problem from subsurface flow, the new multilevel estimator achieves gains of more than a factor 60 over standard subset simulation for a practically relevant relative error of 25%.
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Forecasts for key macroeconomic variables are almost always made simultaneously by the same organizations, presented together, and used together in policy analyses and decision-makings. It is therefore important to know whether the forecasters are skillful enough to forecast the future values of those variables. Here a method for joint evaluation of skill in directional forecasts of multiple variables is introduced. The method is simple to use and does not rely on complicated assumptions required by the conventional statistical methods for measuring accuracy of directional forecast. The data on GDP growth and inflation forecasts of three organizations from Thailand, namely, the Bank of Thailand, the Fiscal Policy Office, and the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council as well as the actual data on GDP growth and inflation of Thailand between 2001 and 2021 are employed in order to demonstrate how the method could be used to evaluate the skills of forecasters in practice. The overall results indicate that these three organizations are somewhat skillful in forecasting the direction-of-changes of GDP growth and inflation when no band and a band of +/- 1 standard deviation of the forecasted outcome are considered. However, when a band of +/- 0.5% of the forecasted outcome is introduced, the skills in forecasting the direction-of-changes of GDP growth and inflation of these three organizations are, at best, little better than intelligent guess work.
Municipalities are vulnerable to cyberattacks with devastating consequences, but they lack key information to evaluate their own risk and compare their security posture to peers. Using data from 83 municipalities collected via a cryptographically secure computation platform about their security posture, incidents, security control failures, and losses, we build data-driven cyber risk models and cyber security benchmarks for municipalities. We produce benchmarks of the security posture in a sector, the frequency of cyber incidents, forecasted annual losses for organizations based on their defensive posture, and a weighting of cyber controls based on their individual failure rates and associated losses. Combined, these four items can help guide cyber policymaking by quantifying the cyber risk in a sector, identifying gaps that need to be addressed, prioritizing policy interventions, and tracking progress of those interventions over time. In the case of the municipalities, these newly derived risk measures highlight the need for continuous measured improvement of cybersecurity readiness, show clear areas of weakness and strength, and provide governments with some early targets for policy focus such as security education, incident response, and focusing efforts first on municipalities at the lowest security levels that have the highest risk reduction per security dollar invested.
Neural operators (NO) are discretization invariant deep learning methods with functional output and can approximate any continuous operator. NO have demonstrated the superiority of solving partial differential equations (PDEs) over other deep learning methods. However, the spatial domain of its input function needs to be identical to its output, which limits its applicability. For instance, the widely used Fourier neural operator (FNO) fails to approximate the operator that maps the boundary condition to the PDE solution. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework called resolution-invariant deep operator (RDO) that decouples the spatial domain of the input and output. RDO is motivated by the Deep operator network (DeepONet) and it does not require retraining the network when the input/output is changed compared with DeepONet. RDO takes functional input and its output is also functional so that it keeps the resolution invariant property of NO. It can also resolve PDEs with complex geometries whereas NO fail. Various numerical experiments demonstrate the advantage of our method over DeepONet and FNO.
This note presents a method that provides optimal monotone conditional error functions for a large class of adaptive two stage designs. The presented method builds on a previously developed general theory for optimal adaptive two stage designs where sample sizes are reassessed for a specific conditional power and the goal is to minimize the expected sample size. The previous theory can easily lead to a non-monotonous conditional error function which is highly undesirable for logical reasons and can harm type I error rate control for composite null hypotheses. The here presented method extends the existing theory by introducing intermediate monotonising steps that can easily be implemented.
We propose a new numerical domain decomposition method for solving elliptic equations on compact Riemannian manifolds. One advantage of this method is its ability to bypass the need for global triangulations or grids on the manifolds. Additionally, it features a highly parallel iterative scheme. To verify its efficacy, we conduct numerical experiments on some $4$-dimensional manifolds without and with boundary.
The human cerebral cortex has many bumps and grooves called gyri and sulci. Even though there is a high inter-individual consistency for the main cortical folds, this is not the case when we examine the exact shapes and details of the folding patterns. Because of this complexity, characterizing the cortical folding variability and relating them to subjects' behavioral characteristics or pathologies is still an open scientific problem. Classical approaches include labeling a few specific patterns, either manually or semi-automatically, based on geometric distances, but the recent availability of MRI image datasets of tens of thousands of subjects makes modern deep-learning techniques particularly attractive. Here, we build a self-supervised deep-learning model to detect folding patterns in the cingulate region. We train a contrastive self-supervised model (SimCLR) on both Human Connectome Project (1101 subjects) and UKBioBank (21070 subjects) datasets with topological-based augmentations on the cortical skeletons, which are topological objects that capture the shape of the folds. We explore several backbone architectures (convolutional network, DenseNet, and PointNet) for the SimCLR. For evaluation and testing, we perform a linear classification task on a database manually labeled for the presence of the "double-parallel" folding pattern in the cingulate region, which is related to schizophrenia characteristics. The best model, giving a test AUC of 0.76, is a convolutional network with 6 layers, a 10-dimensional latent space, a linear projection head, and using the branch-clipping augmentation. This is the first time that a self-supervised deep learning model has been applied to cortical skeletons on such a large dataset and quantitatively evaluated. We can now envisage the next step: applying it to other brain regions to detect other biomarkers.
Fully Bayesian methods for Cox models specify a model for the baseline hazard function. Parametric approaches generally provide monotone estimations. Semi-parametric choices allow for more flexible patterns but they can suffer from overfitting and instability. Regularization methods through prior distributions with correlated structures usually give reasonable answers to these types of situations. We discuss Bayesian regularization for Cox survival models defined via flexible baseline hazards specified by a mixture of piecewise constant functions and by a cubic B-spline function. For those "semiparametric" proposals, different prior scenarios ranging from prior independence to particular correlated structures are discussed in a real study with micro-virulence data and in an extensive simulation scenario that includes different data sample and time axis partition sizes in order to capture risk variations. The posterior distribution of the parameters was approximated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Model selection was performed in accordance with the Deviance Information Criteria and the Log Pseudo-Marginal Likelihood. The results obtained reveal that, in general, Cox models present great robustness in covariate effects and survival estimates independent of the baseline hazard specification. In relation to the "semi-parametric" baseline hazard specification, the B-splines hazard function is less dependent on the regularization process than the piecewise specification because it demands a smaller time axis partition to estimate a similar behaviour of the risk.
Using validated numerical methods, interval arithmetic and Taylor models, we propose a certified predictor-corrector loop for tracking zeros of polynomial systems with a parameter. We provide a Rust implementation which shows tremendous improvement over existing software for certified path tracking.
Among semiparametric regression models, partially linear additive models provide a useful tool to include additive nonparametric components as well as a parametric component, when explaining the relationship between the response and a set of explanatory variables. This paper concerns such models under sparsity assumptions for the covariates included in the linear component. Sparse covariates are frequent in regression problems where the task of variable selection is usually of interest. As in other settings, outliers either in the residuals or in the covariates involved in the linear component have a harmful effect. To simultaneously achieve model selection for the parametric component of the model and resistance to outliers, we combine preliminary robust estimators of the additive component, robust linear $MM-$regression estimators with a penalty such as SCAD on the coefficients in the parametric part. Under mild assumptions, consistency results and rates of convergence for the proposed estimators are derived. A Monte Carlo study is carried out to compare, under different models and contamination schemes, the performance of the robust proposal with its classical counterpart. The obtained results show the advantage of using the robust approach. Through the analysis of a real data set, we also illustrate the benefits of the proposed procedure.
Time series and extreme value analyses are two statistical approaches usually applied to study hydrological data. Classical techniques, such as ARIMA models (in the case of mean flow predictions), and parametric generalised extreme value (GEV) fits and nonparametric extreme value methods (in the case of extreme value theory) have been usually employed in this context. In this paper, nonparametric functional data methods are used to perform mean monthly flow predictions and extreme value analysis, which are important for flood risk management. These are powerful tools that take advantage of both, the functional nature of the data under consideration and the flexibility of nonparametric methods, providing more reliable results. Therefore, they can be useful to prevent damage caused by floods and to reduce the likelihood and/or the impact of floods in a specific location. The nonparametric functional approaches are applied to flow samples of two rivers in the U.S. In this way, monthly mean flow is predicted and flow quantiles in the extreme value framework are estimated using the proposed methods. Results show that the nonparametric functional techniques work satisfactorily, generally outperforming the behaviour of classical parametric and nonparametric estimators in both settings.
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