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In this study, a longitudinal regression model for covariance matrix outcomes is introduced. The proposal considers a multilevel generalized linear model for regressing covariance matrices on (time-varying) predictors. This model simultaneously identifies covariate associated components from covariance matrices, estimates regression coefficients, and estimates the within-subject variation in the covariance matrices. Optimal estimators are proposed for both low-dimensional and high-dimensional cases by maximizing the (approximated) hierarchical likelihood function and are proved to be asymptotically consistent, where the proposed estimator is the most efficient under the low-dimensional case and achieves the uniformly minimum quadratic loss among all linear combinations of the identity matrix and the sample covariance matrix under the high-dimensional case. Through extensive simulation studies, the proposed approach achieves good performance in identifying the covariate related components and estimating the model parameters. Applying to a longitudinal resting-state fMRI dataset from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), the proposed approach identifies brain networks that demonstrate the difference between males and females at different disease stages. The findings are in line with existing knowledge of AD and the method improves the statistical power over the analysis of cross-sectional data.

Entity resolution (ER), comprising record linkage and de-duplication, is the process of merging noisy databases in the absence of unique identifiers to remove duplicate entities. One major challenge of analysis with linked data is identifying a representative record among determined matches to pass to an inferential or predictive task, referred to as the \emph{downstream task}. Additionally, incorporating uncertainty from ER in the downstream task is critical to ensure proper inference. To bridge the gap between ER and the downstream task in an analysis pipeline, we propose five methods to choose a representative (or canonical) record from linked data, referred to as canonicalization. Our methods are scalable in the number of records, appropriate in general data scenarios, and provide natural error propagation via a Bayesian canonicalization stage. The proposed methodology is evaluated on three simulated data sets and one application -- determining the relationship between demographic information and party affiliation in voter registration data from the North Carolina State Board of Elections. We first perform Bayesian ER and evaluate our proposed methods for canonicalization before considering the downstream tasks of linear and logistic regression. Bayesian canonicalization methods are empirically shown to improve downstream inference in both settings through prediction and coverage.

We consider unsupervised classification by means of a latent multinomial variable which categorizes a scalar response into one of L components of a mixture model. This process can be thought as a hierarchical model with first level modelling a scalar response according to a mixture of parametric distributions, the second level models the mixture probabilities by means of a generalised linear model with functional and scalar covariates. The traditional approach of treating functional covariates as vectors not only suffers from the curse of dimensionality since functional covariates can be measured at very small intervals leading to a highly parametrised model but also does not take into account the nature of the data. We use basis expansion to reduce the dimensionality and a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters while providing predictions of the latent classification vector. By means of a simulation study we investigate the behaviour of our approach considering normal mixture model and zero inflated mixture of Poisson distributions. We also compare the performance of the classical Gibbs sampling approach with Variational Bayes Inference.

A solution to control for nonresponse bias consists of multiplying the design weights of respondents by the inverse of estimated response probabilities to compensate for the nonrespondents. Maximum likelihood and calibration are two approaches that can be applied to obtain estimated response probabilities. The paper develops asymptotic properties of the resulting estimator when calibration is applied. A logistic regression model for the response probabilities is postulated and missing at random data is supposed. The author shows that the estimators with the response probabilities estimated via calibration are asymptotically equivalent to unbiased estimators and that a gain in efficiency is obtained when estimating the response probabilities via calibration as compared to the estimator with the true response probabilities.

The last two decades have witnessed considerable progress on foundational aspects of statistical network analysis, but less attention has been paid to the complex statistical issues arising in real-world applications. Here, we consider two samples of within-household contact networks in Belgium generated by different but complementary sampling designs: one smaller but with all contacts in each household observed, the other larger and more representative but recording contacts of only one person per household. We wish to combine their strengths to learn the social forces that shape household contact formation and facilitate simulation for prediction of disease spread, while generalising to the population of households in the region. To accomplish this, we introduce a flexible framework for specifying multi-network models in the exponential family class and identify the requirements for inference and prediction under this framework to be consistent, identifiable, and generalisable, even when data are incomplete; explore how these requirements may be violated in practice; and develop a suite of quantitative and graphical diagnostics for detecting violations and suggesting improvements to a candidate model. We report on the effects of network size, geography, and household roles on household contact patterns (activity, heterogeneity in activity, and triadic closure).

Data-driven systems are gathering increasing amounts of data from users, and sensitive user data requires privacy protections. In some cases, the data gathered is non-numerical or symbolic, and conventional approaches to privacy, e.g., adding noise, do not apply, though such systems still require privacy protections. Accordingly, we present a novel differential privacy framework for protecting trajectories generated by symbolic systems. These trajectories can be represented as words or strings over a finite alphabet. We develop new differential privacy mechanisms that approximate a sensitive word using a random word that is likely to be near it. An offline mechanism is implemented efficiently using a Modified Hamming Distance Automaton to generate whole privatized output words over a finite time horizon. Then, an online mechanism is implemented by taking in a sensitive symbol and generating a randomized output symbol at each timestep. This work is extended to Markov chains to generate differentially private state sequences that a given Markov chain could have produced. Statistical accuracy bounds are developed to quantify the accuracy of these mechanisms, and numerical results validate the accuracy of these techniques for strings of English words.

We consider the problem of computing a sequence of rankings that maximizes consumer-side utility while minimizing producer-side individual unfairness of exposure. While prior work has addressed this problem using linear or quadratic programs on bistochastic matrices, such approaches, relying on Birkhoff-von Neumann (BvN) decompositions, are too slow to be implemented at large scale. In this paper we introduce a geometrical object, a polytope that we call expohedron, whose points represent all achievable exposures of items for a Position Based Model (PBM). We exhibit some of its properties and lay out a Carath\'eodory decomposition algorithm with complexity $O(n^2\log(n))$ able to express any point inside the expohedron as a convex sum of at most $n$ vertices, where $n$ is the number of items to rank. Such a decomposition makes it possible to express any feasible target exposure as a distribution over at most $n$ rankings. Furthermore we show that we can use this polytope to recover the whole Pareto frontier of the multi-objective fairness-utility optimization problem, using a simple geometrical procedure with complexity $O(n^2\log(n))$. Our approach compares favorably to linear or quadratic programming baselines in terms of algorithmic complexity and empirical runtime and is applicable to any merit that is a non-decreasing function of item relevance. Furthermore our solution can be expressed as a distribution over only $n$ permutations, instead of the $(n-1)^2 + 1$ achieved with BvN decompositions. We perform experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, confirming our theoretical results.

We consider the problem of estimating high-dimensional covariance matrices of $K$-populations or classes in the setting where the sample sizes are comparable to the data dimension. We propose estimating each class covariance matrix as a distinct linear combination of all class sample covariance matrices. This approach is shown to reduce the estimation error when the sample sizes are limited, and the true class covariance matrices share a somewhat similar structure. We develop an effective method for estimating the coefficients in the linear combination that minimize the mean squared error under the general assumption that the samples are drawn from (unspecified) elliptically symmetric distributions possessing finite fourth-order moments. To this end, we utilize the spatial sign covariance matrix, which we show (under rather general conditions) to be an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the normalized covariance matrix as the dimension grows to infinity. We also show how the proposed method can be used in choosing the regularization parameters for multiple target matrices in a single class covariance matrix estimation problem. We assess the proposed method via numerical simulation studies including an application in global minimum variance portfolio optimization using real stock data.

Functional quantile regression (FQR) is a useful alternative to mean regression for functional data as it provides a comprehensive understanding of how scalar predictors influence the conditional distribution of functional responses. In this article, we study the FQR model for densely sampled, high-dimensional functional data without relying on parametric error or independent stochastic process assumptions, with the focus being on statistical inference under this challenging regime along with scalable implementation. This is achieved by a simple but powerful distributed strategy, in which we first perform separate quantile regression to compute $M$-estimators at each sampling location, and then carry out estimation and inference for the entire coefficient functions by properly exploiting the uncertainty quantification and dependence structures of $M$-estimators. We derive a uniform Bahadur representation and a strong Gaussian approximation result for the $M$-estimators on the discrete sampling grid, leading to dimension reduction and serving as the basis for inference. An interpolation-based estimator with minimax optimality and a Bayesian alternative to improve upon finite sample performance are discussed. Large sample properties for point and simultaneous interval estimators are established. The obtained minimax optimal rate under the FQR model shows an interesting phase transition phenomenon that has been previously observed in functional mean regression. The proposed methods are illustrated via simulations and an application to a mass spectrometry proteomics dataset.

Reinforcement learning (RL) experiments have notoriously high variance, and minor details can have disproportionately large effects on measured outcomes. This is problematic for creating reproducible research and also serves as an obstacle for real-world applications, where safety and predictability are paramount. In this paper, we investigate causes for this perceived instability. To allow for an in-depth analysis, we focus on a specifically popular setup with high variance -- continuous control from pixels with an actor-critic agent. In this setting, we demonstrate that variance mostly arises early in training as a result of poor "outlier" runs, but that weight initialization and initial exploration are not to blame. We show that one cause for early variance is numerical instability which leads to saturating nonlinearities. We investigate several fixes to this issue and find that one particular method is surprisingly effective and simple -- normalizing penultimate features. Addressing the learning instability allows for larger learning rates, and significantly decreases the variance of outcomes. This demonstrates that the perceived variance in RL is not necessarily inherent to the problem definition and may be addressed through simple architectural modifications.