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Quantum neural networks (QNNs) and quantum kernels stand as prominent figures in the realm of quantum machine learning, poised to leverage the nascent capabilities of near-term quantum computers to surmount classical machine learning challenges. Nonetheless, the training efficiency challenge poses a limitation on both QNNs and quantum kernels, curbing their efficacy when applied to extensive datasets. To confront this concern, we present a unified approach: coreset selection, aimed at expediting the training of QNNs and quantum kernels by distilling a judicious subset from the original training dataset. Furthermore, we analyze the generalization error bounds of QNNs and quantum kernels when trained on such coresets, unveiling the comparable performance with those training on the complete original dataset. Through systematic numerical simulations, we illuminate the potential of coreset selection in expediting tasks encompassing synthetic data classification, identification of quantum correlations, and quantum compiling. Our work offers a useful way to improve diverse quantum machine learning models with a theoretical guarantee while reducing the training cost.

We present a robust deep incremental learning framework for regression tasks on financial temporal tabular datasets which is built upon the incremental use of commonly available tabular and time series prediction models to adapt to distributional shifts typical of financial datasets. The framework uses a simple basic building block (decision trees) to build self-similar models of any required complexity to deliver robust performance under adverse situations such as regime changes, fat-tailed distributions, and low signal-to-noise ratios. As a detailed study, we demonstrate our scheme using XGBoost models trained on the Numerai dataset and show that a two layer deep ensemble of XGBoost models over different model snapshots delivers high quality predictions under different market regimes. We also show that the performance of XGBoost models with different number of boosting rounds in three scenarios (small, standard and large) is monotonically increasing with respect to model size and converges towards the generalisation upper bound. We also evaluate the robustness of the model under variability of different hyperparameters, such as model complexity and data sampling settings. Our model has low hardware requirements as no specialised neural architectures are used and each base model can be independently trained in parallel.

The information diffusion prediction on social networks aims to predict future recipients of a message, with practical applications in marketing and social media. While different prediction models all claim to perform well, general frameworks for performance evaluation remain limited. Here, we aim to identify a performance characteristic curve for a model, which captures its performance on tasks of different complexity. We propose a metric based on information entropy to quantify the randomness in diffusion data, then identify a scaling pattern between the randomness and the prediction accuracy of the model. Data points in the patterns by different sequence lengths, system sizes, and randomness all collapse into a single curve, capturing a model's inherent capability of making correct predictions against increased uncertainty. Given that this curve has such important properties that it can be used to evaluate the model, we define it as the performance characteristic curve of the model. The validity of the curve is tested by three prediction models in the same family, reaching conclusions in line with existing studies. Also, the curve is successfully applied to evaluate two distinct models from the literature. Our work reveals a pattern underlying the data randomness and prediction accuracy. The performance characteristic curve provides a new way to systematically evaluate models' performance, and sheds light on future studies on other frameworks for model evaluation.

We consider the problem of sequential change detection, where the goal is to design a scheme for detecting any changes in a parameter or functional $\theta$ of the data stream distribution that has small detection delay, but guarantees control on the frequency of false alarms in the absence of changes. In this paper, we describe a simple reduction from sequential change detection to sequential estimation using confidence sequences: we begin a new $(1-\alpha)$-confidence sequence at each time step, and proclaim a change when the intersection of all active confidence sequences becomes empty. We prove that the average run length is at least $1/\alpha$, resulting in a change detection scheme with minimal structural assumptions~(thus allowing for possibly dependent observations, and nonparametric distribution classes), but strong guarantees. Our approach bears an interesting parallel with the reduction from change detection to sequential testing of Lorden (1971) and the e-detector of Shin et al. (2022).

We present a nonparametric graphical model. Our model uses an undirected graph that represents conditional independence for general random variables defined by the conditional dependence coefficient (Azadkia and Chatterjee (2021)). The set of edges of the graph are defined as $E=\{(i,j):R_{i,j}\neq 0\}$, where $R_{i,j}$ is the conditional dependence coefficient for $X_i$ and $X_j$ given $(X_1,\ldots,X_p) \backslash \{X_{i},X_{j}\}$. We propose a graph structure learning by two steps selection procedure: first, we compute the matrix of sample version of the conditional dependence coefficient $\widehat{R_{i,j}}$; next, for some prespecificated threshold $\lambda>0$ we choose an edge $\{i,j\}$ if $ \left|\widehat{R_{i,j}} \right| \geq \lambda.$ The graph recovery structure has been evaluated on artificial and real datasets. We also applied a slight modification of our graph recovery procedure for learning partial correlation graphs for the elliptical distribution.

A general a posteriori error analysis applies to five lowest-order finite element methods for two fourth-order semi-linear problems with trilinear non-linearity and a general source. A quasi-optimal smoother extends the source term to the discrete trial space, and more importantly, modifies the trilinear term in the stream-function vorticity formulation of the incompressible 2D Navier-Stokes and the von K\'{a}rm\'{a}n equations. This enables the first efficient and reliable a posteriori error estimates for the 2D Navier-Stokes equations in the stream-function vorticity formulation for Morley, two discontinuous Galerkin, $C^0$ interior penalty, and WOPSIP discretizations with piecewise quadratic polynomials.

A change point detection (CPD) framework assisted by a predictive machine learning model called "Predict and Compare" is introduced and characterised in relation to other state-of-the-art online CPD routines which it outperforms in terms of false positive rate and out-of-control average run length. The method's focus is on improving standard methods from sequential analysis such as the CUSUM rule in terms of these quality measures. This is achieved by replacing typically used trend estimation functionals such as the running mean with more sophisticated predictive models (Predict step), and comparing their prognosis with actual data (Compare step). The two models used in the Predict step are the ARIMA model and the LSTM recursive neural network. However, the framework is formulated in general terms, so as to allow the use of other prediction or comparison methods than those tested here. The power of the method is demonstrated in a tribological case study in which change points separating the run-in, steady-state, and divergent wear phases are detected in the regime of very few false positives.

Existing deepfake speech detection systems lack generalizability to unseen attacks (i.e., samples generated by generative algorithms not seen during training). Recent studies have explored the use of universal speech representations to tackle this issue and have obtained inspiring results. These works, however, have focused on innovating downstream classifiers while leaving the representation itself untouched. In this study, we argue that characterizing the long-term temporal dynamics of these representations is crucial for generalizability and propose a new method to assess representation dynamics. Indeed, we show that different generative models generate similar representation dynamics patterns with our proposed method. Experiments on the ASVspoof 2019 and 2021 datasets validate the benefits of the proposed method to detect deepfakes from methods unseen during training, significantly improving on several benchmark methods.

Solving multiphysics-based inverse problems for geological carbon storage monitoring can be challenging when multimodal time-lapse data are expensive to collect and costly to simulate numerically. We overcome these challenges by combining computationally cheap learned surrogates with learned constraints. Not only does this combination lead to vastly improved inversions for the important fluid-flow property, permeability, it also provides a natural platform for inverting multimodal data including well measurements and active-source time-lapse seismic data. By adding a learned constraint, we arrive at a computationally feasible inversion approach that remains accurate. This is accomplished by including a trained deep neural network, known as a normalizing flow, which forces the model iterates to remain in-distribution, thereby safeguarding the accuracy of trained Fourier neural operators that act as surrogates for the computationally expensive multiphase flow simulations involving partial differential equation solves. By means of carefully selected experiments, centered around the problem of geological carbon storage, we demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed constrained optimization method on two different data modalities, namely time-lapse well and time-lapse seismic data. While permeability inversions from both these two modalities have their pluses and minuses, their joint inversion benefits from either, yielding valuable superior permeability inversions and CO2 plume predictions near, and far away, from the monitoring wells.

This work uses the entropy-regularised relaxed stochastic control perspective as a principled framework for designing reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. Herein agent interacts with the environment by generating noisy controls distributed according to the optimal relaxed policy. The noisy policies on the one hand, explore the space and hence facilitate learning but, on the other hand, introduce bias by assigning a positive probability to non-optimal actions. This exploration-exploitation trade-off is determined by the strength of entropy regularisation. We study algorithms resulting from two entropy regularisation formulations: the exploratory control approach, where entropy is added to the cost objective, and the proximal policy update approach, where entropy penalises policy divergence between consecutive episodes. We focus on the finite horizon continuous-time linear-quadratic (LQ) RL problem, where a linear dynamics with unknown drift coefficients is controlled subject to quadratic costs. In this setting, both algorithms yield a Gaussian relaxed policy. We quantify the precise difference between the value functions of a Gaussian policy and its noisy evaluation and show that the execution noise must be independent across time. By tuning the frequency of sampling from relaxed policies and the parameter governing the strength of entropy regularisation, we prove that the regret, for both learning algorithms, is of the order $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{N}) $ (up to a logarithmic factor) over $N$ episodes, matching the best known result from the literature.