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Vector autogressions (VARs) are widely applied when it comes to modeling and forecasting macroeconomic variables. In high dimensions, however, they are prone to overfitting. Bayesian methods, more concretely shrinkage priors, have shown to be successful in improving prediction performance. In the present paper, we introduce the semi-global framework, in which we replace the traditional global shrinkage parameter with group-specific shrinkage parameters. We show how this framework can be applied to various shrinkage priors, such as global-local priors and stochastic search variable selection priors. We demonstrate the virtues of the proposed framework in an extensive simulation study and in an empirical application forecasting data of the US economy. Further, we shed more light on the ongoing ``Illusion of Sparsity'' debate, finding that forecasting performances under sparse/dense priors vary across evaluated economic variables and across time frames. Dynamic model averaging, however, can combine the merits of both worlds.

Table-based Fact Verification (TFV) aims to extract the entailment relation between statements and structured tables. Existing TFV methods based on small-scaled models suffer from insufficient labeled data and weak zero-shot ability. Recently, the appearance of Large Language Models (LLMs) has gained lots of attraction in research fields. They have shown powerful zero-shot and in-context learning abilities on several NLP tasks, but their potential on TFV is still unknown. In this work, we implement a preliminary study about whether LLMs are table-based fact-checkers. In detail, we design diverse prompts to explore how the in-context learning can help LLMs in TFV, i.e., zero-shot and few-shot TFV capability. Besides, we carefully design and construct TFV instructions to study the performance gain brought by the instruction tuning of LLMs. Experimental results demonstrate that LLMs can achieve acceptable results on zero-shot and few-shot TFV with prompt engineering, while instruction-tuning can stimulate the TFV capability significantly. We also make some valuable findings about the format of zero-shot prompts and the number of in-context examples. Finally, we analyze some possible directions to promote the accuracy of TFV via LLMs, which is beneficial to further research of table reasoning.

Federated Graph Learning (FGL) is tasked with training machine learning models, such as Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), for multiple clients, each with its own graph data. Existing methods usually assume that each client has both node features and graph structure of its graph data. In real-world scenarios, however, there exist federated systems where only a part of the clients have such data while other clients (i.e. graphless clients) may only have node features. This naturally leads to a novel problem in FGL: how to jointly train a model over distributed graph data with graphless clients? In this paper, we propose a novel framework FedGLS to tackle the problem in FGL with graphless clients. In FedGLS, we devise a local graph learner on each graphless client which learns the local graph structure with the structure knowledge transferred from other clients. To enable structure knowledge transfer, we design a GNN model and a feature encoder on each client. During local training, the feature encoder retains the local graph structure knowledge together with the GNN model via knowledge distillation, and the structure knowledge is transferred among clients in global update. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of the proposed FedGLS over five baselines.

Despite the remarkable capabilities of modern large language models (LLMs), the mechanisms behind their problem-solving abilities remain elusive. In this work, we aim to better understand how the learning dynamics of LLM finetuning shapes downstream generalization. Our analysis focuses on reasoning tasks, whose problem structure allows us to distinguish between memorization (the exact replication of reasoning steps from the training data) and performance (the correctness of the final solution). We find that a model's generalization behavior can be effectively characterized by a training metric we call pre-memorization train accuracy: the accuracy of model samples on training queries before they begin to copy the exact reasoning steps from the training set. On the dataset level, this metric is able to reliably predict test accuracy, achieving $R^2$ of around or exceeding 0.9 across various models (Llama3 8, Gemma2 9B), datasets (GSM8k, MATH), and training configurations. On a per-example level, this metric is also indicative of whether individual model predictions are robust to perturbations in the training query. By connecting a model's learning behavior to its generalization, pre-memorization train accuracy can guide targeted improvements to training strategies. We focus on data curation as an example, and show that prioritizing examples with low pre-memorization accuracy leads to 1.5-2x improvements in data efficiency compared to i.i.d. data scaling, and outperforms other standard data curation techniques.

Large Language Models for Code (LLMs4Code) have been found to exhibit outstanding performance in the software engineering domain, especially the remarkable performance in coding tasks. However, even the most advanced LLMs4Code can inevitably contain incorrect or outdated code knowledge. Due to the high cost of training LLMs4Code, it is impractical to re-train the models for fixing these problematic code knowledge. Model editing is a new technical field for effectively and efficiently correcting erroneous knowledge in LLMs, where various model editing techniques and benchmarks have been proposed recently. Despite that, a comprehensive study that thoroughly compares and analyzes the performance of the state-of-the-art model editing techniques for adapting the knowledge within LLMs4Code across various code-related tasks is notably absent. To bridge this gap, we perform the first systematic study on applying state-of-the-art model editing approaches to repair the inaccuracy of LLMs4Code. To that end, we introduce a benchmark named CLMEEval, which consists of two datasets, i.e., CoNaLa-Edit (CNLE) with 21K+ code generation samples and CodeSearchNet-Edit (CSNE) with 16K+ code summarization samples. With the help of CLMEEval, we evaluate six advanced model editing techniques on three LLMs4Code: CodeLlama (7B), CodeQwen1.5 (7B), and Stable-Code (3B). Our findings include that the external memorization-based GRACE approach achieves the best knowledge editing effectiveness and specificity (the editing does not influence untargeted knowledge), while generalization (whether the editing can generalize to other semantically-identical inputs) is a universal challenge for existing techniques. Furthermore, building on in-depth case analysis, we introduce an enhanced version of GRACE called A-GRACE, which incorporates contrastive learning to better capture the semantics of the inputs.

Federated learning (FL) has become a cornerstone in decentralized learning, where, in many scenarios, the incoming data distribution will change dynamically over time, introducing continuous learning (CL) problems. This continual federated learning (CFL) task presents unique challenges, particularly regarding catastrophic forgetting and non-IID input data. Existing solutions include using a replay buffer to store historical data or leveraging generative adversarial networks. Nevertheless, motivated by recent advancements in the diffusion model for generative tasks, this paper introduces DCFL, a novel framework tailored to address the challenges of CFL in dynamic distributed learning environments. Our approach harnesses the power of the conditional diffusion model to generate synthetic historical data at each local device during communication, effectively mitigating latent shifts in dynamic data distribution inputs. We provide the convergence bound for the proposed CFL framework and demonstrate its promising performance across multiple datasets, showcasing its effectiveness in tackling the complexities of CFL tasks.

Markov chains are the de facto finite-state model for stochastic dynamical systems, and Markov decision processes (MDPs) extend Markov chains by incorporating non-deterministic behaviors. Given an MDP and rewards on states, a classical optimization criterion is the maximal expected total reward where the MDP stops after T steps, which can be computed by a simple dynamic programming algorithm. We consider a natural generalization of the problem where the stopping times can be chosen according to a probability distribution, such that the expected stopping time is T, to optimize the expected total reward. Quite surprisingly we establish inter-reducibility of the expected stopping-time problem for Markov chains with the Positivity problem (which is related to the well-known Skolem problem), for which establishing either decidability or undecidability would be a major breakthrough. Given the hardness of the exact problem, we consider the approximate version of the problem: we show that it can be solved in exponential time for Markov chains and in exponential space for MDPs.

Despite obesity being widely discussed in the social sciences, the effect of a robot's perceived obesity level on trust is not covered by the field of HRI. While in research regarding humans, Body Mass Index (BMI) is commonly used as an indicator of obesity, this scale is completely irrelevant in the context of robots, so it is challenging to operationalize the perceived obesity level of robots; indeed, while the effect of robot's size (or height) on people's trust in it was addressed in previous HRI papers, the perceived obesity level factor has not been addressed. This work examines to what extent the perceived obesity level of humanoid robots affects people's trust in them. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a within-subjects study where, using an online pre-validated questionnaire, the subjects were asked questions while being presented with two pictures of humanoids, one with a regular obesity level and the other with a high obesity level. The results show that humanoid robots with lower perceived obesity levels are significantly more likely to be trusted.

Predictive coding (PC) is an energy-based learning algorithm that performs iterative inference over network activities before updating weights. Recent work suggests that PC can converge in fewer learning steps than backpropagation thanks to its inference procedure. However, these advantages are not always observed, and the impact of PC inference on learning is not theoretically well understood. Here, we study the geometry of the PC energy landscape at the inference equilibrium of the network activities. For deep linear networks, we first show that the equilibrated energy is simply a rescaled mean squared error loss with a weight-dependent rescaling. We then prove that many highly degenerate (non-strict) saddles of the loss including the origin become much easier to escape (strict) in the equilibrated energy. Our theory is validated by experiments on both linear and non-linear networks. Based on these and other results, we conjecture that all the saddles of the equilibrated energy are strict. Overall, this work suggests that PC inference makes the loss landscape more benign and robust to vanishing gradients, while also highlighting the fundamental challenge of scaling PC to deeper models.

Compared with cheap addition operation, multiplication operation is of much higher computation complexity. The widely-used convolutions in deep neural networks are exactly cross-correlation to measure the similarity between input feature and convolution filters, which involves massive multiplications between float values. In this paper, we present adder networks (AdderNets) to trade these massive multiplications in deep neural networks, especially convolutional neural networks (CNNs), for much cheaper additions to reduce computation costs. In AdderNets, we take the $\ell_1$-norm distance between filters and input feature as the output response. The influence of this new similarity measure on the optimization of neural network have been thoroughly analyzed. To achieve a better performance, we develop a special back-propagation approach for AdderNets by investigating the full-precision gradient. We then propose an adaptive learning rate strategy to enhance the training procedure of AdderNets according to the magnitude of each neuron's gradient. As a result, the proposed AdderNets can achieve 74.9% Top-1 accuracy 91.7% Top-5 accuracy using ResNet-50 on the ImageNet dataset without any multiplication in convolution layer.