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We are interested in privatizing an approximate posterior inference algorithm called Expectation Propagation (EP). EP approximates the posterior by iteratively refining approximations to the local likelihoods, and is known to provide better posterior uncertainties than those by variational inference (VI). However, using EP for large-scale datasets imposes a challenge in terms of memory requirements as it needs to maintain each of the local approximates in memory. To overcome this problem, stochastic expectation propagation (SEP) was proposed, which only considers a unique local factor that captures the average effect of each likelihood term to the posterior and refines it in a way analogous to EP. In terms of privacy, SEP is more tractable than EP because at each refining step of a factor, the remaining factors are fixed to the same value and do not depend on other datapoints as in EP, which makes the sensitivity analysis tractable. We provide a theoretical analysis of the privacy-accuracy trade-off in the posterior estimates under differentially private stochastic expectation propagation (DP-SEP). Furthermore, we demonstrate the performance of our DP-SEP algorithm evaluated on both synthetic and real-world datasets in terms of the quality of posterior estimates at different levels of guaranteed privacy.

We develop a rapid and accurate contour method for the solution of time-fractional PDEs. The method inverts the Laplace transform via an optimised stable quadrature rule, suitable for infinite-dimensional operators, whose error decreases like $\exp(-cN/\log(N))$ for $N$ quadrature points. The method is parallisable, avoids having to resolve singularities of the solution as $t\downarrow 0$, and avoids the large memory consumption that can be a challenge for time-stepping methods applied to time-fractional PDEs. The ODEs resulting from quadrature are solved using adaptive sparse spectral methods that converge exponentially with optimal linear complexity. These solutions of ODEs are reused for different times. We provide a complete analysis of our approach for fractional beam equations used to model small-amplitude vibration of viscoelastic materials with a fractional Kelvin-Voigt stress-strain relationship. We calculate the system's energy evolution over time and the surface deformation in cases of both constant and non-constant viscoelastic parameters. An infinite-dimensional ``solve-then-discretise'' approach considerably simplifies the analysis, which studies the generalisation of the numerical range of a quasi-linearisation of a suitable operator pencil. This allows us to build an efficient algorithm with explicit error control. The approach can be readily adapted to other time-fractional PDEs and is not constrained to fractional parameters in the range $0<\nu<1$.

The backwards induction method due to Bellman~\cite{bellman1952theory} is a popular approach to solving problems in optimiztion, optimal control, and many other areas of applied math. In this paper we analyze the backwords induction approach, under min/max conditions. We show that if the value function is has strictly positive derivatives of order 1-4 then the optimal strategy for the adversary is Brownian motion. Using that fact we analyze different potential functions and show that the Normal-Hedge potential is optimal.

The difficulty in specifying rewards for many real-world problems has led to an increased focus on learning rewards from human feedback, such as demonstrations. However, there are often many different reward functions that explain the human feedback, leaving agents with uncertainty over what the true reward function is. While most policy optimization approaches handle this uncertainty by optimizing for expected performance, many applications demand risk-averse behavior. We derive a novel policy gradient-style robust optimization approach, PG-BROIL, that optimizes a soft-robust objective that balances expected performance and risk. To the best of our knowledge, PG-BROIL is the first policy optimization algorithm robust to a distribution of reward hypotheses which can scale to continuous MDPs. Results suggest that PG-BROIL can produce a family of behaviors ranging from risk-neutral to risk-averse and outperforms state-of-the-art imitation learning algorithms when learning from ambiguous demonstrations by hedging against uncertainty, rather than seeking to uniquely identify the demonstrator's reward function.

Exploration-exploitation is a powerful and practical tool in multi-agent learning (MAL), however, its effects are far from understood. To make progress in this direction, we study a smooth analogue of Q-learning. We start by showing that our learning model has strong theoretical justification as an optimal model for studying exploration-exploitation. Specifically, we prove that smooth Q-learning has bounded regret in arbitrary games for a cost model that explicitly captures the balance between game and exploration costs and that it always converges to the set of quantal-response equilibria (QRE), the standard solution concept for games under bounded rationality, in weighted potential games with heterogeneous learning agents. In our main task, we then turn to measure the effect of exploration in collective system performance. We characterize the geometry of the QRE surface in low-dimensional MAL systems and link our findings with catastrophe (bifurcation) theory. In particular, as the exploration hyperparameter evolves over-time, the system undergoes phase transitions where the number and stability of equilibria can change radically given an infinitesimal change to the exploration parameter. Based on this, we provide a formal theoretical treatment of how tuning the exploration parameter can provably lead to equilibrium selection with both positive as well as negative (and potentially unbounded) effects to system performance.

To drive purchase in online advertising, it is of the advertiser's great interest to optimize the sequential advertising strategy whose performance and interpretability are both important. The lack of interpretability in existing deep reinforcement learning methods makes it not easy to understand, diagnose and further optimize the strategy. In this paper, we propose our Deep Intents Sequential Advertising (DISA) method to address these issues. The key part of interpretability is to understand a consumer's purchase intent which is, however, unobservable (called hidden states). In this paper, we model this intention as a latent variable and formulate the problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) where the underlying intents are inferred based on the observable behaviors. Large-scale industrial offline and online experiments demonstrate our method's superior performance over several baselines. The inferred hidden states are analyzed, and the results prove the rationality of our inference.

Detection of malicious behavior is a fundamental problem in security. One of the major challenges in using detection systems in practice is in dealing with an overwhelming number of alerts that are triggered by normal behavior (the so-called false positives), obscuring alerts resulting from actual malicious activity. While numerous methods for reducing the scope of this issue have been proposed, ultimately one must still decide how to prioritize which alerts to investigate, and most existing prioritization methods are heuristic, for example, based on suspiciousness or priority scores. We introduce a novel approach for computing a policy for prioritizing alerts using adversarial reinforcement learning. Our approach assumes that the attackers know the full state of the detection system and dynamically choose an optimal attack as a function of this state, as well as of the alert prioritization policy. The first step of our approach is to capture the interaction between the defender and attacker in a game theoretic model. To tackle the computational complexity of solving this game to obtain a dynamic stochastic alert prioritization policy, we propose an adversarial reinforcement learning framework. In this framework, we use neural reinforcement learning to compute best response policies for both the defender and the adversary to an arbitrary stochastic policy of the other. We then use these in a double-oracle framework to obtain an approximate equilibrium of the game, which in turn yields a robust stochastic policy for the defender. Extensive experiments using case studies in fraud and intrusion detection demonstrate that our approach is effective in creating robust alert prioritization policies.

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) has become a popular method for scalable Bayesian inference. These methods are based on sampling a discrete-time approximation to a continuous time process, such as the Langevin diffusion. When applied to distributions defined on a constrained space, such as the simplex, the time-discretisation error can dominate when we are near the boundary of the space. We demonstrate that while current SGMCMC methods for the simplex perform well in certain cases, they struggle with sparse simplex spaces; when many of the components are close to zero. However, most popular large-scale applications of Bayesian inference on simplex spaces, such as network or topic models, are sparse. We argue that this poor performance is due to the biases of SGMCMC caused by the discretization error. To get around this, we propose the stochastic CIR process, which removes all discretization error and we prove that samples from the stochastic CIR process are asymptotically unbiased. Use of the stochastic CIR process within a SGMCMC algorithm is shown to give substantially better performance for a topic model and a Dirichlet process mixture model than existing SGMCMC approaches.

We present the first real-world application of methods for improving neural machine translation (NMT) with human reinforcement, based on explicit and implicit user feedback collected on the eBay e-commerce platform. Previous work has been confined to simulation experiments, whereas in this paper we work with real logged feedback for offline bandit learning of NMT parameters. We conduct a thorough analysis of the available explicit user judgments---five-star ratings of translation quality---and show that they are not reliable enough to yield significant improvements in bandit learning. In contrast, we successfully utilize implicit task-based feedback collected in a cross-lingual search task to improve task-specific and machine translation quality metrics.

A recommender system aims to recommend items that a user is interested in among many items. The need for the recommender system has been expanded by the information explosion. Various approaches have been suggested for providing meaningful recommendations to users. One of the proposed approaches is to consider a recommender system as a Markov decision process (MDP) problem and try to solve it using reinforcement learning (RL). However, existing RL-based methods have an obvious drawback. To solve an MDP in a recommender system, they encountered a problem with the large number of discrete actions that bring RL to a larger class of problems. In this paper, we propose a novel RL-based recommender system. We formulate a recommender system as a gridworld game by using a biclustering technique that can reduce the state and action space significantly. Using biclustering not only reduces space but also improves the recommendation quality effectively handling the cold-start problem. In addition, our approach can provide users with some explanation why the system recommends certain items. Lastly, we examine the proposed algorithm on a real-world dataset and achieve a better performance than the widely used recommendation algorithm.