Study of dynamical systems using partial state observation is an important problem due to its applicability to many real-world systems. We address the problem by studying an echo state network (ESN) framework with partial state input with partial or full state output. Application to the Lorenz system and Chua's oscillator (both numerically simulated and experimental systems) demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. We show that the ESN, as an autonomous dynamical system, is capable of making short-term predictions up to a few Lyapunov times. However, the prediction horizon has high variability depending on the initial condition-an aspect that we explore in detail using the distribution of the prediction horizon. Further, using a variety of statistical metrics to compare the long-term dynamics of the ESN predictions with numerically simulated or experimental dynamics and observed similar results, we show that the ESN can effectively learn the system's dynamics even when trained with noisy numerical or experimental datasets. Thus, we demonstrate the potential of ESNs to serve as cheap surrogate models for simulating the dynamics of systems where complete observations are unavailable.
相關內容
Most existing neural network-based approaches for solving stochastic optimal control problems using the associated backward dynamic programming principle rely on the ability to simulate the underlying state variables. However, in some problems, this simulation is infeasible, leading to the discretization of state variable space and the need to train one neural network for each data point. This approach becomes computationally inefficient when dealing with large state variable spaces. In this paper, we consider a class of this type of stochastic optimal control problems and introduce an effective solution employing multitask neural networks. To train our multitask neural network, we introduce a novel scheme that dynamically balances the learning across tasks. Through numerical experiments on real-world derivatives pricing problems, we prove that our method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.
The computational demands of modern AI have spurred interest in optical neural networks (ONNs) which offer the potential benefits of increased speed and lower power consumption. However, current ONNs face various challenges,most significantly a limited calculation precision (typically around 4 bits) and the requirement for high-resolution signal format converters (digital-to-analogue conversions (DACs) and analogue-to-digital conversions (ADCs)). These challenges are inherent to their analog computing nature and pose significant obstacles in practical implementation. Here, we propose a digital-analog hybrid optical computing architecture for ONNs, which utilizes digital optical inputs in the form of binary words. By introducing the logic levels and decisions based on thresholding, the calculation precision can be significantly enhanced. The DACs for input data can be removed and the resolution of the ADCs can be greatly reduced. This can increase the operating speed at a high calculation precision and facilitate the compatibility with microelectronics. To validate our approach, we have fabricated a proof-of-concept photonic chip and built up a hybrid optical processor (HOP) system for neural network applications. We have demonstrated an unprecedented 16-bit calculation precision for high-definition image processing, with a pixel error rate (PER) as low as $1.8\times10^{-3}$ at an signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 18.2 dB. We have also implemented a convolutional neural network for handwritten digit recognition that shows the same accuracy as the one achieved by a desktop computer. The concept of the digital-analog hybrid optical computing architecture offers a methodology that could potentially be applied to various ONN implementations and may intrigue new research into efficient and accurate domain-specific optical computing architectures for neural networks.
We consider the community detection problem in a sparse $q$-uniform hypergraph $G$, assuming that $G$ is generated according to the Hypergraph Stochastic Block Model (HSBM). We prove that a spectral method based on the non-backtracking operator for hypergraphs works with high probability down to the generalized Kesten-Stigum detection threshold conjectured by Angelini et al. (2015). We characterize the spectrum of the non-backtracking operator for the sparse HSBM and provide an efficient dimension reduction procedure using the Ihara-Bass formula for hypergraphs. As a result, community detection for the sparse HSBM on $n$ vertices can be reduced to an eigenvector problem of a $2n\times 2n$ non-normal matrix constructed from the adjacency matrix and the degree matrix of the hypergraph. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first provable and efficient spectral algorithm that achieves the conjectured threshold for HSBMs with $r$ blocks generated according to a general symmetric probability tensor.
We analyze the effects of enforcing vs. exempting access ISP from net neutrality regulations when platforms are present and operate two-sided pricing in their business models. This study is conducted in a scenario where users and Content Providers (CPs) have access to the internet by means of their serving ISPs and to a platform that intermediates and matches users and CPs, among other service offerings. Our hypothesis is that platform two-sided pricing interacts in a relevant manner with the access ISP, which may be allowed (an hypothetical non-neutrality scenario) or not (the current neutrality regulation status) to apply two-sided pricing on its service business model. We preliminarily conclude that the platforms are extracting surplus from the CPs under the current net neutrality regime for the ISP, and that the platforms would not be able to do so under the counter-factual situation where the ISPs could apply two-sided prices.
Since the start of the operational use of ensemble prediction systems, ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting has become the most advanced approach in weather prediction. However, despite the persistent development of the last three decades, ensemble forecasts still often suffer from the lack of calibration and might exhibit systematic bias, which calls for some form of statistical post-processing. Nowadays, one can choose from a large variety of post-processing approaches, where parametric methods provide full predictive distributions of the investigated weather quantity. Parameter estimation in these models is based on training data consisting of past forecast-observation pairs, thus post-processed forecasts are usually available only at those locations where training data are accessible. We propose a general clustering-based interpolation technique of extending calibrated predictive distributions from observation stations to any location in the ensemble domain where there are ensemble forecasts at hand. Focusing on the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) post-processing technique, in a case study based on wind speed ensemble forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, we demonstrate the predictive performance of various versions of the suggested method and show its superiority over the regionally estimated and interpolated EMOS models and the raw ensemble forecasts as well.
Qualitative probabilistic networks (QPNs) combine the conditional independence assumptions of Bayesian networks with the qualitative properties of positive and negative dependence. They formalise various intuitive properties of positive dependence to allow inferences over a large network of variables. However, we will demonstrate in this paper that, due to an incorrect symmetry property, many inferences obtained in non-binary QPNs are not mathematically true. We will provide examples of such incorrect inferences and briefly discuss possible resolutions.
We present a finite volume method preserving the invariant region property (IRP) for the reaction-diffusion systems with quasimonotone functions, including nondecreasing, decreasing, and mixed quasimonotone systems. The diffusion terms and time derivatives are discretized by a finite volume method satisfying the discrete maximum principle (DMP) and the backward Euler method, respectively. The discretization leads to an implicit and nonlinear scheme, and it is proved to preserve the invariant region property unconditionally. We construct an iterative algorithm and prove the invariant region property ar each iteration step. Numerical examples are shown to confirm the accuracy and invariant region property of our scheme.
We present a novel combination of dynamic embedded topic models and change-point detection to explore diachronic change of lexical semantic modality in classical and early Christian Latin. We demonstrate several methods for finding and characterizing patterns in the output, and relating them to traditional scholarship in Comparative Literature and Classics. This simple approach to unsupervised models of semantic change can be applied to any suitable corpus, and we conclude with future directions and refinements aiming to allow noisier, less-curated materials to meet that threshold.
The potential effects of conservation actions on threatened species can be predicted using ensemble ecosystem models by forecasting populations with and without intervention. These model ensembles commonly assume stable coexistence of species in the absence of available data. However, existing ensemble-generation methods become computationally inefficient as the size of the ecosystem network increases, preventing larger networks from being studied. We present a novel sequential Monte Carlo sampling approach for ensemble generation that is orders of magnitude faster than existing approaches. We demonstrate that the methods produce equivalent parameter inferences, model predictions, and tightly constrained parameter combinations using a novel sensitivity analysis method. For one case study, we demonstrate a speed-up from 108 days to 6 hours, while maintaining equivalent ensembles. Additionally, we demonstrate how to identify the parameter combinations that strongly drive feasibility and stability, drawing ecological insight from the ensembles. Now, for the first time, larger and more realistic networks can be practically simulated and analysed.
The SINDy algorithm has been successfully used to identify the governing equations of dynamical systems from time series data. However, SINDy assumes the user has prior knowledge of the variables in the system and of a function library that can act as a basis for the system. In this paper, we demonstrate on real world data how the Augmented SINDy algorithm outperforms SINDy in the presence of system variable uncertainty. We then show SINDy can be further augmented to perform robustly when both kinds of uncertainty are present.
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