Inverse propensity-score weighted (IPW) estimators are prevalent in causal inference for estimating average treatment effects in observational studies. Under unconfoundedness, given accurate propensity scores and $n$ samples, the size of confidence intervals of IPW estimators scales down with $n$, and, several of their variants improve the rate of scaling. However, neither IPW estimators nor their variants are robust to inaccuracies: even if a single covariate has an $\varepsilon>0$ additive error in the propensity score, the size of confidence intervals of these estimators can increase arbitrarily. Moreover, even without errors, the rate with which the confidence intervals of these estimators go to zero with $n$ can be arbitrarily slow in the presence of extreme propensity scores (those close to 0 or 1). We introduce a family of Coarse IPW (CIPW) estimators that captures existing IPW estimators and their variants. Each CIPW estimator is an IPW estimator on a coarsened covariate space, where certain covariates are merged. Under mild assumptions, e.g., Lipschitzness in expected outcomes and sparsity of extreme propensity scores, we give an efficient algorithm to find a robust estimator: given $\varepsilon$-inaccurate propensity scores and $n$ samples, its confidence interval size scales with $\varepsilon+1/\sqrt{n}$. In contrast, under the same assumptions, existing estimators' confidence interval sizes are $\Omega(1)$ irrespective of $\varepsilon$ and $n$. Crucially, our estimator is data-dependent and we show that no data-independent CIPW estimator can be robust to inaccuracies.
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Regression discontinuity design (RDD) is widely adopted for causal inference under intervention determined by a continuous variable. While one is interested in treatment effect heterogeneity by subgroups in many applications, RDD typically suffers from small subgroup-wise sample sizes, which makes the estimation results highly instable. To solve this issue, we introduce hierarchical RDD (HRDD), a hierarchical Bayes approach for pursuing treatment effect heterogeneity in RDD. A key feature of HRDD is to employ a pseudo-model based on a loss function to estimate subgroup-level parameters of treatment effects under RDD, and assign a hierarchical prior distribution to ''borrow strength'' from other subgroups. The posterior computation can be easily done by a simple Gibbs sampling, and the optimal bandwidth can be automatically selected by the Hyv\"{a}rinen scores for unnormalized models. We demonstrate the proposed HRDD through simulation and real data analysis, and show that HRDD provides much more stable point and interval estimation than separately applying the standard RDD method to each subgroup.
The main challenge of multimodal optimization problems is identifying multiple peaks with high accuracy in multidimensional search spaces with irregular landscapes. This work proposes the Multiple Global Peaks Big Bang-Big Crunch (MGP-BBBC) algorithm, which addresses the challenge of multimodal optimization problems by introducing a specialized mechanism for each operator. The algorithm expands the Big Bang-Big Crunch algorithm, a state-of-the-art metaheuristic inspired by the universe's evolution. Specifically, MGP-BBBC groups the best individuals of the population into cluster-based centers of mass and then expands them with a progressively lower disturbance to guarantee convergence. During this process, it (i) applies a distance-based filtering to remove unnecessary elites such that the ones on smaller peaks are not lost, (ii) promotes isolated individuals based on their niche count after clustering, and (iii) balances exploration and exploitation during offspring generation to target specific accuracy levels. Experimental results on twenty multimodal benchmark test functions show that MGP-BBBC generally performs better or competitively with respect to other state-of-the-art multimodal optimizers.
In semi-supervised semantic segmentation (SSS), weak-to-strong consistency regularization techniques are widely utilized in recent works, typically combined with input-level and feature-level perturbations. However, the integration between weak-to-strong consistency regularization and network perturbation has been relatively rare. We note several problems with existing network perturbations in SSS that may contribute to this phenomenon. By revisiting network perturbations, we introduce a new approach for network perturbation to expand the existing weak-to-strong consistency regularization for unlabeled data. Additionally, we present a volatile learning process for labeled data, which is uncommon in existing research. Building upon previous work that includes input-level and feature-level perturbations, we present MLPMatch (Multi-Level-Perturbation Match), an easy-to-implement and efficient framework for semi-supervised semantic segmentation. MLPMatch has been validated on the Pascal VOC and Cityscapes datasets, achieving state-of-the-art performance. Code is available from //github.com/LlistenL/MLPMatch.
Sensing-assisted communication is critical to enhance the system efficiency in integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) systems. However, most existing literature focuses on large-scale channel sensing, without considering the impacts of small-scale channel aging. In this paper, we investigate a dual-scale channel estimation framework for sensing-assisted communication, where both large-scale channel sensing and small-scale channel aging are considered. By modeling the channel aging effect with block fading and incorporating CRB (Cram\'er-Rao bound)-based sensing errors, we optimize both the time duration of large-scale detection and the frequency of small-scale update within each subframe to maximize the achievable rate while satisfying sensing requirements. Since the formulated optimization problem is non-convex, we propose a two-dimensional search-based optimization algorithm to obtain the optimal solution. Simulation results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed optimal design over three counterparts.
Creating accurate and geologically realistic reservoir facies based on limited measurements is crucial for field development and reservoir management, especially in the oil and gas sector. Traditional two-point geostatistics, while foundational, often struggle to capture complex geological patterns. Multi-point statistics offers more flexibility, but comes with its own challenges related to pattern configurations and storage limits. With the rise of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and their success in various fields, there has been a shift towards using them for facies generation. However, recent advances in the computer vision domain have shown the superiority of diffusion models over GANs. Motivated by this, a novel Latent Diffusion Model is proposed, which is specifically designed for conditional generation of reservoir facies. The proposed model produces high-fidelity facies realizations that rigorously preserve conditioning data. It significantly outperforms a GAN-based alternative. Our implementation on GitHub: \url{//github.com/ML4ITS/Latent-Diffusion-Model-for-Conditional-Reservoir-Facies-Generation}.
The Kalman filter (KF) is a state estimation algorithm that optimally combines system knowledge and measurements to minimize the mean squared error of the estimated states. While KF was initially designed for linear systems, numerous extensions of it, such as extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF), cubature Kalman filter (CKF), etc., have been proposed for nonlinear systems. Although different types of nonlinear KFs have different pros and cons, they all use the same framework of linear KF. Yet, according to what we found in this paper, the framework tends to give overconfident and less accurate state estimations when the measurement functions are nonlinear. Therefore, in this study, we designed a new framework that can be combined with any existing type of nonlinear KFs and showed theoretically and empirically that the new framework estimates the states and covariance more accurately than the old one. The new framework was tested on four different nonlinear KFs and five different tasks, showcasing its ability to reduce estimation errors by several orders of magnitude in low-measurement-noise conditions.
Content moderation on a global scale must navigate a complex array of local cultural distinctions, which can hinder effective enforcement. While global policies aim for consistency and broad applicability, they often miss the subtleties of regional language interpretation, cultural beliefs, and local legislation. This work introduces a flexible framework that enhances foundation language models with cultural knowledge. Our approach involves fine-tuning encoder-decoder models on media-diet data to capture cultural nuances, and applies a continued training regime to effectively integrate these models into a content moderation pipeline. We evaluate this framework in a case study of an online podcast platform with content spanning various regions. The results show that our culturally adapted models improve the accuracy of local violation detection and offer explanations that align more closely with regional cultural norms. Our findings reinforce the need for an adaptable content moderation approach that remains flexible in response to the diverse cultural landscapes it operates in and represents a step towards a more equitable and culturally sensitive framework for content moderation, demonstrating what is achievable in this domain.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
Knowledge graph embedding, which aims to represent entities and relations as low dimensional vectors (or matrices, tensors, etc.), has been shown to be a powerful technique for predicting missing links in knowledge graphs. Existing knowledge graph embedding models mainly focus on modeling relation patterns such as symmetry/antisymmetry, inversion, and composition. However, many existing approaches fail to model semantic hierarchies, which are common in real-world applications. To address this challenge, we propose a novel knowledge graph embedding model---namely, Hierarchy-Aware Knowledge Graph Embedding (HAKE)---which maps entities into the polar coordinate system. HAKE is inspired by the fact that concentric circles in the polar coordinate system can naturally reflect the hierarchy. Specifically, the radial coordinate aims to model entities at different levels of the hierarchy, and entities with smaller radii are expected to be at higher levels; the angular coordinate aims to distinguish entities at the same level of the hierarchy, and these entities are expected to have roughly the same radii but different angles. Experiments demonstrate that HAKE can effectively model the semantic hierarchies in knowledge graphs, and significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods on benchmark datasets for the link prediction task.
Multi-relation Question Answering is a challenging task, due to the requirement of elaborated analysis on questions and reasoning over multiple fact triples in knowledge base. In this paper, we present a novel model called Interpretable Reasoning Network that employs an interpretable, hop-by-hop reasoning process for question answering. The model dynamically decides which part of an input question should be analyzed at each hop; predicts a relation that corresponds to the current parsed results; utilizes the predicted relation to update the question representation and the state of the reasoning process; and then drives the next-hop reasoning. Experiments show that our model yields state-of-the-art results on two datasets. More interestingly, the model can offer traceable and observable intermediate predictions for reasoning analysis and failure diagnosis, thereby allowing manual manipulation in predicting the final answer.
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