Point process models are widely used for continuous asynchronous event data, where each data point includes time and additional information called "marks", which can be locations, nodes, or event types. This paper presents a novel point process model for discrete event data over graphs, where the event interaction occurs within a latent graph structure. Our model builds upon Hawkes's classic influence kernel-based formulation in the original self-exciting point processes work to capture the influence of historical events on future events' occurrence. The key idea is to represent the influence kernel by Graph Neural Networks (GNN) to capture the underlying graph structure while harvesting the strong representation power of GNNs. Compared with prior works focusing on directly modeling the conditional intensity function using neural networks, our kernel presentation herds the repeated event influence patterns more effectively by combining statistical and deep models, achieving better model estimation/learning efficiency and superior predictive performance. Our work significantly extends the existing deep spatio-temporal kernel for point process data, which is inapplicable to our setting due to the fundamental difference in the nature of the observation space being Euclidean rather than a graph. We present comprehensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data to show the superior performance of the proposed approach against the state-of-the-art in predicting future events and uncovering the relational structure among data.
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Processing 是一門開源編程語言和與之配套的集成開發環境（IDE）的名稱。Processing 在電子藝術和視覺設計社區被用來教授編程基礎，并運用于大量的新媒體和互動藝術作品中。
Regression models that incorporate smooth functions of predictor variables to explain the relationships with a response variable have gained widespread usage and proved successful in various applications. By incorporating smooth functions of predictor variables, these models can capture complex relationships between the response and predictors while still allowing for interpretation of the results. In situations where the relationships between a response variable and predictors are explored, it is not uncommon to assume that these relationships adhere to certain shape constraints. Examples of such constraints include monotonicity and convexity. The scam package for R has become a popular package to carry out the full fitting of exponential family generalized additive modelling with shape restrictions on smooths. The paper aims to extend the existing framework of shape-constrained generalized additive models (SCAM) to accommodate smooth interactions of covariates, linear functionals of shape-constrained smooths and incorporation of residual autocorrelation. The methods described in this paper are implemented in the recent version of the package scam, available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).
Causal generative modelling is gaining interest in medical imaging due to its ability to answer interventional and counterfactual queries. Most work focuses on generating counterfactual images that look plausible, using auxiliary classifiers to enforce effectiveness of simulated interventions. We investigate pitfalls in this approach, discovering the issue of attribute amplification, where unrelated attributes are spuriously affected during interventions, leading to biases across protected characteristics and disease status. We show that attribute amplification is caused by the use of hard labels in the counterfactual training process and propose soft counterfactual fine-tuning to mitigate this issue. Our method substantially reduces the amplification effect while maintaining effectiveness of generated images, demonstrated on a large chest X-ray dataset. Our work makes an important advancement towards more faithful and unbiased causal modelling in medical imaging.
Bayesian graphical models are powerful tools to infer complex relationships in high dimension, yet are often fraught with computational and statistical challenges. If exploited in a principled way, the increasing information collected alongside the data of primary interest constitutes an opportunity to mitigate these difficulties by guiding the detection of dependence structures. For instance, gene network inference may be informed by the use of publicly available summary statistics on the regulation of genes by genetic variants. Here we present a novel Gaussian graphical modelling framework to identify and leverage information on the centrality of nodes in conditional independence graphs. Specifically, we consider a fully joint hierarchical model to simultaneously infer (i) sparse precision matrices and (ii) the relevance of node-level information for uncovering the sought-after network structure. We encode such information as candidate auxiliary variables using a spike-and-slab submodel on the propensity of nodes to be hubs, which allows hypothesis-free selection and interpretation of a sparse subset of relevant variables. As efficient exploration of large posterior spaces is needed for real-world applications, we develop a variational expectation conditional maximisation algorithm that scales inference to hundreds of samples, nodes and auxiliary variables. We illustrate and exploit the advantages of our approach in simulations and in a gene network study which identifies hub genes involved in biological pathways relevant to immune-mediated diseases.
In logistic regression modeling, Firth's modified estimator is widely used to address the issue of data separation, which results in the nonexistence of the maximum likelihood estimate. Firth's modified estimator can be formulated as a penalized maximum likelihood estimator in which Jeffreys' prior is adopted as the penalty term. Despite its widespread use in practice, the formal verification of the corresponding estimate's existence has not been established. In this study, we establish the existence theorem of Firth's modified estimate in binomial logistic regression models, assuming only the full column rankness of the design matrix. We also discuss other binomial regression models obtained through alternating link functions and prove the existence of similar penalized maximum likelihood estimates for such models.
The root mean squared error is an important measure used in a variety of applications such as structural dynamics and acoustics to model averaged deviations from standard behavior. For large-scale systems, simulations of this quantity quickly become computationally prohibitive. Classical model order reduction techniques attempt to resolve this issue via the construction of surrogate models that emulate the root mean squared error measure using an intermediate linear system. However, this approach requires a potentially large number of linear outputs, which can be disadvantageous in the design of reduced-order models. In this work, we consider directly the root mean squared error as the quantity of interest using the concept of quadratic-output models and propose several new model reduction techniques for the construction of appropriate surrogates. We test the proposed methods on a model for the vibrational response of a plate with tuned vibration absorbers.
Studying the function spaces defined by neural networks helps to understand the corresponding learning models and their inductive bias. While in some limits neural networks correspond to function spaces that are reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, these regimes do not capture the properties of the networks used in practice. In contrast, in this paper we show that deep neural networks define suitable reproducing kernel Banach spaces. These spaces are equipped with norms that enforce a form of sparsity, enabling them to adapt to potential latent structures within the input data and their representations. In particular, leveraging the theory of reproducing kernel Banach spaces, combined with variational results, we derive representer theorems that justify the finite architectures commonly employed in applications. Our study extends analogous results for shallow networks and can be seen as a step towards considering more practically plausible neural architectures.
Reconstructing a dynamic object with affine motion in computerized tomography (CT) leads to motion artifacts if the motion is not taken into account. In most cases, the actual motion is neither known nor can be determined easily. As a consequence, the respective model that describes CT is incomplete. The iterative RESESOP-Kaczmarz method can - under certain conditions and by exploiting the modeling error - reconstruct dynamic objects at different time points even if the exact motion is unknown. However, the method is very time-consuming. To speed the reconstruction process up and obtain better results, we combine the following three steps: 1. RESESOP-Kacmarz with only a few iterations is implemented to reconstruct the object at different time points. 2. The motion is estimated via landmark detection, e.g. using deep learning. 3. The estimated motion is integrated into the reconstruction process, allowing the use of dynamic filtered backprojection. We give a short review of all methods involved and present numerical results as a proof of principle.
Machine learning (ML) methods, which fit to data the parameters of a given parameterized model class, have garnered significant interest as potential methods for learning surrogate models for complex engineering systems for which traditional simulation is expensive. However, in many scientific and engineering settings, generating high-fidelity data on which to train ML models is expensive, and the available budget for generating training data is limited. ML models trained on the resulting scarce high-fidelity data have high variance and are sensitive to vagaries of the training data set. We propose a new multifidelity training approach for scientific machine learning that exploits the scientific context where data of varying fidelities and costs are available; for example high-fidelity data may be generated by an expensive fully resolved physics simulation whereas lower-fidelity data may arise from a cheaper model based on simplifying assumptions. We use the multifidelity data to define new multifidelity Monte Carlo estimators for the unknown parameters of linear regression models, and provide theoretical analyses that guarantee the approach's accuracy and improved robustness to small training budgets. Numerical results verify the theoretical analysis and demonstrate that multifidelity learned models trained on scarce high-fidelity data and additional low-fidelity data achieve order-of-magnitude lower model variance than standard models trained on only high-fidelity data of comparable cost. This illustrates that in the scarce data regime, our multifidelity training strategy yields models with lower expected error than standard training approaches.
In logistic regression modeling, Firth's modified estimator is widely used to address the issue of data separation, which results in the nonexistence of the maximum likelihood estimate. Firth's modified estimator can be formulated as a penalized maximum likelihood estimator in which Jeffreys' prior is adopted as the penalty term. Despite its widespread use in practice, the formal verification of the corresponding estimate's existence has not been established. In this study, we establish the existence theorem of Firth's modified estimate in binomial logistic regression models, assuming only the full column rankness of the design matrix. We also discuss multinomial logistic regression models. Unlike the binomial regression case, we show through an example that the Jeffreys-prior penalty term does not necessarily diverge to negative infinity as the parameter diverges.
Existing schemes for demonstrating quantum computational advantage are subject to various practical restrictions, including the hardness of verification and challenges in experimental implementation. Meanwhile, analog quantum simulators have been realized in many experiments to study novel physics. In this work, we propose a quantum advantage protocol based on single-step Feynman-Kitaev verification of an analog quantum simulation, in which the verifier need only run an $O(\lambda^2)$-time classical computation, and the prover need only prepare $O(1)$ samples of a history state and perform $O(\lambda^2)$ single-qubit measurements, for a security parameter $\lambda$. We also propose a near-term feasible strategy for honest provers and discuss potential experimental realizations.
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