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With the underlying aim of increasing efficiency of computational modelling pertinent for managing & protecting the Great Barrier Reef, we perform a preliminary investigation on the use of deep neural networks for opportunistic model emulation of APSIM models by repurposing an existing large dataset containing outputs of APSIM model runs. The dataset has not been specifically tailored for the model emulation task. We employ two neural network architectures for the emulation task: densely connected feed-forward neural network (FFNN), and gated recurrent unit feeding into FFNN (GRU-FFNN), a type of a recurrent neural network. Various configurations of the architectures are trialled. A minimum correlation statistic is used to identify clusters of APSIM scenarios that can be aggregated to form training sets for model emulation. We focus on emulating 4 important outputs of the APSIM model: runoff, soil_loss, DINrunoff, Nleached. The GRU-FFNN architecture with three hidden layers and 128 units per layer provides good emulation of runoff and DINrunoff. However, soil_loss and Nleached were emulated relatively poorly under a wide range of the considered architectures; the emulators failed to capture variability at higher values of these two outputs. While the opportunistic data available from past modelling activities provides a large and useful dataset for exploring APSIM emulation, it may not be sufficiently rich enough for successful deep learning of more complex model dynamics. Design of Computer Experiments may be required to generate more informative data to emulate all output variables of interest. We also suggest the use of synthetic meteorology settings to allow the model to be fed a wide range of inputs. These need not all be representative of normal conditions, but can provide a denser, more informative dataset from which complex relationships between input and outputs can be learned.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · 模型平均 · 優化器 · 學成 · Continuity ·
2021 年 11 月 19 日

Combination and aggregation techniques can significantly improve forecast accuracy. This also holds for probabilistic forecasting methods where predictive distributions are combined. There are several time-varying and adaptive weighting schemes such as Bayesian model averaging (BMA). However, the quality of different forecasts may vary not only over time but also within the distribution. For example, some distribution forecasts may be more accurate in the center of the distributions, while others are better at predicting the tails. Therefore, we introduce a new weighting method that considers the differences in performance over time and within the distribution. We discuss pointwise combination algorithms based on aggregation across quantiles that optimize with respect to the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). After analyzing the theoretical properties of pointwise CRPS learning, we discuss B- and P-Spline-based estimation techniques for batch and online learning, based on quantile regression and prediction with expert advice. We prove that the proposed fully adaptive Bernstein online aggregation (BOA) method for pointwise CRPS online learning has optimal convergence properties. They are confirmed in simulations and a probabilistic forecasting study for European emission allowance (EUA) prices.

We study how different output layers in a deep neural network learn and forget in continual learning settings. The following three factors can affect catastrophic forgetting in the output layer: (1) weights modifications, (2) interference, and (3) projection drift. In this paper, our goal is to provide more insights into how changing the output layers may address (1) and (2). Some potential solutions to those issues are proposed and evaluated here in several continual learning scenarios. We show that the best-performing type of the output layer depends on the data distribution drifts and/or the amount of data available. In particular, in some cases where a standard linear layer would fail, it turns out that changing parameterization is sufficient in order to achieve a significantly better performance, whithout introducing a continual-learning algorithm and instead using the standard SGD to train a model. Our analysis and results shed light on the dynamics of the output layer in continual learning scenarios, and suggest a way of selecting the best type of output layer for a given scenario.

With the advances of data-driven machine learning research, a wide variety of prediction problems have been tackled. It has become critical to explore how machine learning and specifically deep learning methods can be exploited to analyse healthcare data. A major limitation of existing methods has been the focus on grid-like data; however, the structure of physiological recordings are often irregular and unordered which makes it difficult to conceptualise them as a matrix. As such, graph neural networks have attracted significant attention by exploiting implicit information that resides in a biological system, with interactive nodes connected by edges whose weights can be either temporal associations or anatomical junctions. In this survey, we thoroughly review the different types of graph architectures and their applications in healthcare. We provide an overview of these methods in a systematic manner, organized by their domain of application including functional connectivity, anatomical structure and electrical-based analysis. We also outline the limitations of existing techniques and discuss potential directions for future research.

Deep Learning has implemented a wide range of applications and has become increasingly popular in recent years. The goal of multimodal deep learning is to create models that can process and link information using various modalities. Despite the extensive development made for unimodal learning, it still cannot cover all the aspects of human learning. Multimodal learning helps to understand and analyze better when various senses are engaged in the processing of information. This paper focuses on multiple types of modalities, i.e., image, video, text, audio, body gestures, facial expressions, and physiological signals. Detailed analysis of past and current baseline approaches and an in-depth study of recent advancements in multimodal deep learning applications has been provided. A fine-grained taxonomy of various multimodal deep learning applications is proposed, elaborating on different applications in more depth. Architectures and datasets used in these applications are also discussed, along with their evaluation metrics. Last, main issues are highlighted separately for each domain along with their possible future research directions.

The difficulty of deploying various deep learning (DL) models on diverse DL hardware has boosted the research and development of DL compilers in the community. Several DL compilers have been proposed from both industry and academia such as Tensorflow XLA and TVM. Similarly, the DL compilers take the DL models described in different DL frameworks as input, and then generate optimized codes for diverse DL hardware as output. However, none of the existing survey has analyzed the unique design architecture of the DL compilers comprehensively. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive survey of existing DL compilers by dissecting the commonly adopted design in details, with emphasis on the DL oriented multi-level IRs, and frontend/backend optimizations. Specifically, we provide a comprehensive comparison among existing DL compilers from various aspects. In addition, we present detailed analysis on the design of multi-level IRs and illustrate the commonly adopted optimization techniques. Finally, several insights are highlighted as the potential research directions of DL compiler. This is the first survey paper focusing on the design architecture of DL compilers, which we hope can pave the road for future research towards DL compiler.

The Visual Question Answering (VQA) task combines challenges for processing data with both Visual and Linguistic processing, to answer basic `common sense' questions about given images. Given an image and a question in natural language, the VQA system tries to find the correct answer to it using visual elements of the image and inference gathered from textual questions. In this survey, we cover and discuss the recent datasets released in the VQA domain dealing with various types of question-formats and enabling robustness of the machine-learning models. Next, we discuss about new deep learning models that have shown promising results over the VQA datasets. At the end, we present and discuss some of the results computed by us over the vanilla VQA models, Stacked Attention Network and the VQA Challenge 2017 winner model. We also provide the detailed analysis along with the challenges and future research directions.

Deep learning (DL) is a high dimensional data reduction technique for constructing high-dimensional predictors in input-output models. DL is a form of machine learning that uses hierarchical layers of latent features. In this article, we review the state-of-the-art of deep learning from a modeling and algorithmic perspective. We provide a list of successful areas of applications in Artificial Intelligence (AI), Image Processing, Robotics and Automation. Deep learning is predictive in its nature rather then inferential and can be viewed as a black-box methodology for high-dimensional function estimation.

Tracking by detection is a common approach to solving the Multiple Object Tracking problem. In this paper we show how deep metric learning can be used to improve three aspects of tracking by detection. We train a convolutional neural network to learn an embedding function in a Siamese configuration on a large person re-identification dataset offline. It is then used to improve the online performance of tracking while retaining a high frame rate. We use this learned appearance metric to robustly build estimates of pedestrian's trajectories in the MOT16 dataset. In breaking with the tracking by detection model, we use our appearance metric to propose detections using the predicted state of a tracklet as a prior in the case where the detector fails. This method achieves competitive results in evaluation, especially among online, real-time approaches. We present an ablative study showing the impact of each of the three uses of our deep appearance metric.

Metric learning learns a metric function from training data to calculate the similarity or distance between samples. From the perspective of feature learning, metric learning essentially learns a new feature space by feature transformation (e.g., Mahalanobis distance metric). However, traditional metric learning algorithms are shallow, which just learn one metric space (feature transformation). Can we further learn a better metric space from the learnt metric space? In other words, can we learn metric progressively and nonlinearly like deep learning by just using the existing metric learning algorithms? To this end, we present a hierarchical metric learning scheme and implement an online deep metric learning framework, namely ODML. Specifically, we take one online metric learning algorithm as a metric layer, followed by a nonlinear layer (i.e., ReLU), and then stack these layers modelled after the deep learning. The proposed ODML enjoys some nice properties, indeed can learn metric progressively and performs superiorly on some datasets. Various experiments with different settings have been conducted to verify these properties of the proposed ODML.

We explore the use of deep learning hierarchical models for problems in financial prediction and classification. Financial prediction problems -- such as those presented in designing and pricing securities, constructing portfolios, and risk management -- often involve large data sets with complex data interactions that currently are difficult or impossible to specify in a full economic model. Applying deep learning methods to these problems can produce more useful results than standard methods in finance. In particular, deep learning can detect and exploit interactions in the data that are, at least currently, invisible to any existing financial economic theory.

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