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We present a new finite-sample analysis of M-estimators of locations in $\mathbb{R}^d$ using the tool of the influence function. In particular, we show that the deviations of an M-estimator can be controlled thanks to its influence function (or its score function) and then, we use concentration inequality on M-estimators to investigate the robust estimation of the mean in high dimension in a corrupted setting (adversarial corruption setting) for bounded and unbounded score functions. For a sample of size $n$ and covariance matrix $\Sigma$, we attain the minimax speed $\sqrt{Tr(\Sigma)/n}+\sqrt{\|\Sigma\|_{op}\log(1/\delta)/n}$ with probability larger than $1-\delta$ in a heavy-tailed setting. One of the major advantages of our approach compared to others recently proposed is that our estimator is tractable and fast to compute even in very high dimension with a complexity of $O(nd\log(Tr(\Sigma)))$ where $n$ is the sample size and $\Sigma$ is the covariance matrix of the inliers. In practice, the code that we make available for this article proves to be very fast.

Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) describe several problems relevant to many fields of applied sciences, and their discrete counterparts typically involve the solution of sparse linear systems. In this context, we focus on the analysis of the computational aspects related to the solution of large and sparse linear systems with HPC solvers, by considering the performances of direct and iterative solvers in terms of computational efficiency, scalability, and numerical accuracy. Our aim is to identify the main criteria to support application-domain specialists in the selection of the most suitable solvers, according to the application requirements and available resources. To this end, we discuss how the numerical solver is affected by the regular/irregular discretisation of the input domain, the discretisation of the input PDE with piecewise linear or polynomial basis functions, which generally result in a higher/lower sparsity of the coefficient matrix, and the choice of different initial conditions, which are associated with linear systems with multiple right-hand side terms. Finally, our analysis is independent of the characteristics of the underlying computational architectures, and provides a methodological approach that can be applied to different classes of PDEs or with approximation problems.

We propose a novel method for computing $p$-values based on nested sampling (NS) applied to the sampling space rather than the parameter space of the problem, in contrast to its usage in Bayesian computation. The computational cost of NS scales as $\log^2{1/p}$, which compares favorably to the $1/p$ scaling for Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. For significances greater than about $4\sigma$ in both a toy problem and a simplified resonance search, we show that NS requires orders of magnitude fewer simulations than ordinary MC estimates. This is particularly relevant for high-energy physics, which adopts a $5\sigma$ gold standard for discovery. We conclude with remarks on new connections between Bayesian and frequentist computation and possibilities for tuning NS implementations for still better performance in this setting.

The aim of this paper is to describe a novel non-parametric noise reduction technique from the point of view of Bayesian inference that may automatically improve the signal-to-noise ratio of one- and two-dimensional data, such as e.g. astronomical images and spectra. The algorithm iteratively evaluates possible smoothed versions of the data, the smooth models, obtaining an estimation of the underlying signal that is statistically compatible with the noisy measurements. Iterations stop based on the evidence and the $\chi^2$ statistic of the last smooth model, and we compute the expected value of the signal as a weighted average of the whole set of smooth models. In this paper, we explain the mathematical formalism and numerical implementation of the algorithm, and we evaluate its performance in terms of the peak signal to noise ratio, the structural similarity index, and the time payload, using a battery of real astronomical observations. Our Fully Adaptive Bayesian Algorithm for Data Analysis (FABADA) yields results that, without any parameter tuning, are comparable to standard image processing algorithms whose parameters have been optimized based on the true signal to be recovered, something that is impossible in a real application. State-of-the-art non-parametric methods, such as BM3D, offer slightly better performance at high signal-to-noise ratio, while our algorithm is significantly more accurate for extremely noisy data (higher than $20-40\%$ relative errors, a situation of particular interest in the field of astronomy). In this range, the standard deviation of the residuals obtained by our reconstruction may become more than an order of magnitude lower than that of the original measurements. The source code needed to reproduce all the results presented in this report, including the implementation of the method, is publicly available at //github.com/PabloMSanAla/fabada

In 2018 Bornmann and Haunschild (2018a) introduced a new indicator called the Mantel-Haenszel quotient (MHq) to measure alternative metrics (or altmetrics) of scientometric data. In this article we review the Mantel-Haenszel statistics, point out two errors in the literature, and introduce a new indicator. First, we correct the interpretation of MHq and mention that it is still a meaningful indicator. Second, we correct the variance formula for MHq, which leads to narrower confidence intervals. A simulation study shows the superior performance of our variance estimator and confidence intervals. Since MHq does not match its original description in the literature, we propose a new indicator, the Mantel-Haenszel row risk ratio (MHRR), to meet that need. Interpretation and statistical inference for MHRR are discussed. For both MHRR and MHq, a value greater (less) than one means performance is better (worse) than in the reference set called the world.

The availability of large linguistic data sets enables data-driven approaches to study linguistic change. The Google Books corpus unigram frequency data set is used to investigate the word rank dynamics in eight languages. We observed the rank changes of the unigrams from 1900 to 2008 and compared it to a Wright-Fisher inspired model that we developed for our analysis. The model simulates a neutral evolutionary process with the restriction of having no disappearing and added words. This work explains the mathematical framework of the model - written as a Markov Chain with multinomial transition probabilities - to show how frequencies of words change in time. From our observations in the data and our model, word rank stability shows two types of characteristics: (1) the increase/decrease in ranks are monotonic, or (2) the rank stays the same. Based on our model, high-ranked words tend to be more stable while low-ranked words tend to be more volatile. Some words change in ranks in two ways: (a) by an accumulation of small increasing/decreasing rank changes in time and (b) by shocks of increase/decrease in ranks. Most words in all of the languages we have looked at are rank stable, but not as stable as a neutral model would predict. The stopwords and Swadesh words are observed to be rank stable across eight languages indicating linguistic conformity in established languages. These signatures suggest unigram frequencies in all languages have changed in a manner inconsistent with a purely neutral evolutionary process.

Massive data analysis becomes increasingly prevalent, subsampling methods like BLB (Bag of Little Bootstraps) serves as powerful tools for assessing the quality of estimators for massive data. However, the performance of the subsampling methods are highly influenced by the selection of tuning parameters ( e.g., the subset size, number of resamples per subset ). In this article we develop a hyperparameter selection methodology, which can be used to select tuning parameters for subsampling methods. Specifically, by a careful theoretical analysis, we find an analytically simple and elegant relationship between the asymptotic efficiency of various subsampling estimators and their hyperparameters. This leads to an optimal choice of the hyperparameters. More specifically, for an arbitrarily specified hyperparameter set, we can improve it to be a new set of hyperparameters with no extra CPU time cost, but the resulting estimator's statistical efficiency can be much improved. Both simulation studies and real data analysis demonstrate the superior advantage of our method.

Moment methods are an important means of density estimation, but they are generally strongly dependent on the choice of feasible functions, which severely affects the performance. We propose a non-classical parameterization for density estimation using the sample moments, which does not require the choice of such functions. The parameterization is induced by the Kullback-Leibler distance, and the solution of it, which is proved to exist and be unique subject to simple prior that does not depend on data, can be obtained by convex optimization. Simulation results show the performance of the proposed estimator in estimating multi-modal densities which are mixtures of different types of functions.

Counterfactual explanations are usually generated through heuristics that are sensitive to the search's initial conditions. The absence of guarantees of performance and robustness hinders trustworthiness. In this paper, we take a disciplined approach towards counterfactual explanations for tree ensembles. We advocate for a model-based search aiming at "optimal" explanations and propose efficient mixed-integer programming approaches. We show that isolation forests can be modeled within our framework to focus the search on plausible explanations with a low outlier score. We provide comprehensive coverage of additional constraints that model important objectives, heterogeneous data types, structural constraints on the feature space, along with resource and actionability restrictions. Our experimental analyses demonstrate that the proposed search approach requires a computational effort that is orders of magnitude smaller than previous mathematical programming algorithms. It scales up to large data sets and tree ensembles, where it provides, within seconds, systematic explanations grounded on well-defined models solved to optimality.

Discrete random structures are important tools in Bayesian nonparametrics and the resulting models have proven effective in density estimation, clustering, topic modeling and prediction, among others. In this paper, we consider nested processes and study the dependence structures they induce. Dependence ranges between homogeneity, corresponding to full exchangeability, and maximum heterogeneity, corresponding to (unconditional) independence across samples. The popular nested Dirichlet process is shown to degenerate to the fully exchangeable case when there are ties across samples at the observed or latent level. To overcome this drawback, inherent to nesting general discrete random measures, we introduce a novel class of latent nested processes. These are obtained by adding common and group-specific completely random measures and, then, normalising to yield dependent random probability measures. We provide results on the partition distributions induced by latent nested processes, and develop an Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler for Bayesian inferences. A test for distributional homogeneity across groups is obtained as a by product. The results and their inferential implications are showcased on synthetic and real data.