We investigate statistical uncertainty quantification for reinforcement learning (RL) and its implications in exploration policy. Despite ever-growing literature on RL applications, fundamental questions about inference and error quantification, such as large-sample behaviors, appear to remain quite open. In this paper, we fill in the literature gap by studying the central limit theorem behaviors of estimated Q-values and value functions under various RL settings. In particular, we explicitly identify closed-form expressions of the asymptotic variances, which allow us to efficiently construct asymptotically valid confidence regions for key RL quantities. Furthermore, we utilize these asymptotic expressions to design an effective exploration strategy, which we call Q-value-based Optimal Computing Budget Allocation (Q-OCBA). The policy relies on maximizing the relative discrepancies among the Q-value estimates. Numerical experiments show superior performances of our exploration strategy than other benchmark policies.
相關內容
Learning the graphical structure of Bayesian networks is key to describing data-generating mechanisms in many complex applications but poses considerable computational challenges. Observational data can only identify the equivalence class of the directed acyclic graph underlying a Bayesian network model, and a variety of methods exist to tackle the problem. Under certain assumptions, the popular PC algorithm can consistently recover the correct equivalence class by reverse-engineering the conditional independence (CI) relationships holding in the variable distribution. The dual PC algorithm is a novel scheme to carry out the CI tests within the PC algorithm by leveraging the inverse relationship between covariance and precision matrices. By exploiting block matrix inversions we can simultaneously perform tests on partial correlations of complementary (or dual) conditioning sets. The multiple CI tests of the dual PC algorithm proceed by first considering marginal and full-order CI relationships and progressively moving to central-order ones. Simulation studies show that the dual PC algorithm outperforms the classic PC algorithm both in terms of run time and in recovering the underlying network structure, even in the presence of deviations from Gaussianity. Additionally, we show that the dual PC algorithm applies for Gaussian copula models, and demonstrate its performance in that setting.
We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals' outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.
We tackle the problem of joint frequency and power allocation while emphasizing the generalization capability of a deep reinforcement learning model. Most of the existing methods solve reinforcement learning-based wireless problems for a specific pre-determined wireless network scenario. The performance of a trained agent tends to be very specific to the network and deteriorates when used in a different network operating scenario (e.g., different in size, neighborhood, and mobility, among others). We demonstrate our approach to enhance training to enable a higher generalization capability during inference of the deployed model in a distributed multi-agent setting in a hostile jamming environment. With all these, we show the improved training and inference performance of the proposed methods when tested on previously unseen simulated wireless networks of different sizes and architectures. More importantly, to prove practical impact, the end-to-end solution was implemented on the embedded software-defined radio and validated using over-the-air evaluation.
We propose the first Bayesian encoder for metric learning. Rather than relying on neural amortization as done in prior works, we learn a distribution over the network weights with the Laplace Approximation. We actualize this by first proving that the contrastive loss is a valid log-posterior. We then propose three methods that ensure a positive definite Hessian. Lastly, we present a novel decomposition of the Generalized Gauss-Newton approximation. Empirically, we show that our Laplacian Metric Learner (LAM) estimates well-calibrated uncertainties, reliably detects out-of-distribution examples, and yields state-of-the-art predictive performance.
Development of autonomous cyber system defense strategies and action recommendations in the real-world is challenging, and includes characterizing system state uncertainties and attack-defense dynamics. We propose a data-driven deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework to learn proactive, context-aware, defense countermeasures that dynamically adapt to evolving adversarial behaviors while minimizing loss of cyber system operations. A dynamic defense optimization problem is formulated with multiple protective postures against different types of adversaries with varying levels of skill and persistence. A custom simulation environment was developed and experiments were devised to systematically evaluate the performance of four model-free DRL algorithms against realistic, multi-stage attack sequences. Our results suggest the efficacy of DRL algorithms for proactive cyber defense under multi-stage attack profiles and system uncertainties.
Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) and Deep Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) have achieved significant successes across a wide range of domains, including game AI, autonomous vehicles, robotics, and so on. However, DRL and deep MARL agents are widely known to be sample inefficient that millions of interactions are usually needed even for relatively simple problem settings, thus preventing the wide application and deployment in real-industry scenarios. One bottleneck challenge behind is the well-known exploration problem, i.e., how efficiently exploring the environment and collecting informative experiences that could benefit policy learning towards the optimal ones. This problem becomes more challenging in complex environments with sparse rewards, noisy distractions, long horizons, and non-stationary co-learners. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive survey on existing exploration methods for both single-agent and multi-agent RL. We start the survey by identifying several key challenges to efficient exploration. Beyond the above two main branches, we also include other notable exploration methods with different ideas and techniques. In addition to algorithmic analysis, we provide a comprehensive and unified empirical comparison of different exploration methods for DRL on a set of commonly used benchmarks. According to our algorithmic and empirical investigation, we finally summarize the open problems of exploration in DRL and deep MARL and point out a few future directions.
Advances in artificial intelligence often stem from the development of new environments that abstract real-world situations into a form where research can be done conveniently. This paper contributes such an environment based on ideas inspired by elementary Microeconomics. Agents learn to produce resources in a spatially complex world, trade them with one another, and consume those that they prefer. We show that the emergent production, consumption, and pricing behaviors respond to environmental conditions in the directions predicted by supply and demand shifts in Microeconomics. We also demonstrate settings where the agents' emergent prices for goods vary over space, reflecting the local abundance of goods. After the price disparities emerge, some agents then discover a niche of transporting goods between regions with different prevailing prices -- a profitable strategy because they can buy goods where they are cheap and sell them where they are expensive. Finally, in a series of ablation experiments, we investigate how choices in the environmental rewards, bartering actions, agent architecture, and ability to consume tradable goods can either aid or inhibit the emergence of this economic behavior. This work is part of the environment development branch of a research program that aims to build human-like artificial general intelligence through multi-agent interactions in simulated societies. By exploring which environment features are needed for the basic phenomena of elementary microeconomics to emerge automatically from learning, we arrive at an environment that differs from those studied in prior multi-agent reinforcement learning work along several dimensions. For example, the model incorporates heterogeneous tastes and physical abilities, and agents negotiate with one another as a grounded form of communication.
Ensembles over neural network weights trained from different random initialization, known as deep ensembles, achieve state-of-the-art accuracy and calibration. The recently introduced batch ensembles provide a drop-in replacement that is more parameter efficient. In this paper, we design ensembles not only over weights, but over hyperparameters to improve the state of the art in both settings. For best performance independent of budget, we propose hyper-deep ensembles, a simple procedure that involves a random search over different hyperparameters, themselves stratified across multiple random initializations. Its strong performance highlights the benefit of combining models with both weight and hyperparameter diversity. We further propose a parameter efficient version, hyper-batch ensembles, which builds on the layer structure of batch ensembles and self-tuning networks. The computational and memory costs of our method are notably lower than typical ensembles. On image classification tasks, with MLP, LeNet, and Wide ResNet 28-10 architectures, our methodology improves upon both deep and batch ensembles.
This paper presents a new multi-objective deep reinforcement learning (MODRL) framework based on deep Q-networks. We propose the use of linear and non-linear methods to develop the MODRL framework that includes both single-policy and multi-policy strategies. The experimental results on two benchmark problems including the two-objective deep sea treasure environment and the three-objective mountain car problem indicate that the proposed framework is able to converge to the optimal Pareto solutions effectively. The proposed framework is generic, which allows implementation of different deep reinforcement learning algorithms in different complex environments. This therefore overcomes many difficulties involved with standard multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) methods existing in the current literature. The framework creates a platform as a testbed environment to develop methods for solving various problems associated with the current MORL. Details of the framework implementation can be referred to //www.deakin.edu.au/~thanhthi/drl.htm.
Recommender systems play a crucial role in mitigating the problem of information overload by suggesting users' personalized items or services. The vast majority of traditional recommender systems consider the recommendation procedure as a static process and make recommendations following a fixed strategy. In this paper, we propose a novel recommender system with the capability of continuously improving its strategies during the interactions with users. We model the sequential interactions between users and a recommender system as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and leverage Reinforcement Learning (RL) to automatically learn the optimal strategies via recommending trial-and-error items and receiving reinforcements of these items from users' feedbacks. In particular, we introduce an online user-agent interacting environment simulator, which can pre-train and evaluate model parameters offline before applying the model online. Moreover, we validate the importance of list-wise recommendations during the interactions between users and agent, and develop a novel approach to incorporate them into the proposed framework LIRD for list-wide recommendations. The experimental results based on a real-world e-commerce dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.
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