Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) have found many successful real-world applications, where the optimization problems are often subject to a wide range of uncertainties. To understand the practical behaviors of EAs theoretically, there are a series of efforts devoted to analyzing the running time of EAs for optimization under uncertainties. Existing studies mainly focus on noisy and dynamic optimization, while another common type of uncertain optimization, i.e., robust optimization, has been rarely touched. In this paper, we analyze the expected running time of the (1+1)-EA solving robust linear optimization problems (i.e., linear problems under robust scenarios) with a cardinality constraint $k$. Two common robust scenarios, i.e., deletion-robust and worst-case, are considered. Particularly, we derive tight ranges of the robust parameter $d$ or budget $k$ allowing the (1+1)-EA to find an optimal solution in polynomial running time, which disclose the potential of EAs for robust optimization.
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We give a thorough description of the asymptotic property of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the skewness parameter of a Skew Brownian Motion (SBM). Thanks to recent results on the Central Limit Theorem of the rate of convergence of estimators for the SBM, we prove a conjecture left open that the MLE has asymptotically a mixed normal distribution involving the local time with a rate of convergence of order $1/4$. We also give a series expansion of the MLE and study the asymptotic behavior of the score and its derivatives, as well as their variation with the skewness parameter. In particular, we exhibit a specific behavior when the SBM is actually a Brownian motion, and quantify the explosion of the coefficients of the expansion when the skewness parameter is close to $-1$ or $1$.
Solving high-dimensional random parametric PDEs poses a challenging computational problem. It is well-known that numerical methods can greatly benefit from adaptive refinement algorithms, in particular when functional approximations in polynomials are computed as in stochastic Galerkin and stochastic collocations methods. This work investigates a residual based adaptive algorithm used to approximate the solution of the stationary diffusion equation with lognormal coefficients. It is known that the refinement procedure is reliable, but the theoretical convergence of the scheme for this class of unbounded coefficients has long been an open question. This paper fills this gap and in particular provides a convergence results for the adaptive solution of the lognormal stationary diffusion problem. A computational example supports the theoretical statement.
In this paper, we study the sampling problem for first-order logic proposed recently by Wang et al. -- how to efficiently sample a model of a given first-order sentence on a finite domain? We extend their result for the universally-quantified subfragment of two-variable logic $\mathbf{FO}^2$ ($\mathbf{UFO}^2$) to the entire fragment of $\mathbf{FO}^2$. Specifically, we prove the domain-liftability under sampling of $\mathbf{FO}^2$, meaning that there exists a sampling algorithm for $\mathbf{FO}^2$ that runs in time polynomial in the domain size. We then further show that this result continues to hold even in the presence of counting constraints, such as $\forall x\exists_{=k} y: \varphi(x,y)$ and $\exists_{=k} x\forall y: \varphi(x,y)$, for some quantifier-free formula $\varphi(x,y)$. Our proposed method is constructive, and the resulting sampling algorithms have potential applications in various areas, including the uniform generation of combinatorial structures and sampling in statistical-relational models such as Markov logic networks and probabilistic logic programs.
Learning the graphical structure of Bayesian networks is key to describing data-generating mechanisms in many complex applications but poses considerable computational challenges. Observational data can only identify the equivalence class of the directed acyclic graph underlying a Bayesian network model, and a variety of methods exist to tackle the problem. Under certain assumptions, the popular PC algorithm can consistently recover the correct equivalence class by reverse-engineering the conditional independence (CI) relationships holding in the variable distribution. The dual PC algorithm is a novel scheme to carry out the CI tests within the PC algorithm by leveraging the inverse relationship between covariance and precision matrices. By exploiting block matrix inversions we can simultaneously perform tests on partial correlations of complementary (or dual) conditioning sets. The multiple CI tests of the dual PC algorithm proceed by first considering marginal and full-order CI relationships and progressively moving to central-order ones. Simulation studies show that the dual PC algorithm outperforms the classic PC algorithm both in terms of run time and in recovering the underlying network structure, even in the presence of deviations from Gaussianity. Additionally, we show that the dual PC algorithm applies for Gaussian copula models, and demonstrate its performance in that setting.
We explore time-varying networks for high-dimensional locally stationary time series, using the large VAR model framework with both the transition and (error) precision matrices evolving smoothly over time. Two types of time-varying graphs are investigated: one containing directed edges of Granger causality linkages, and the other containing undirected edges of partial correlation linkages. Under the sparse structural assumption, we propose a penalised local linear method with time-varying weighted group LASSO to jointly estimate the transition matrices and identify their significant entries, and a time-varying CLIME method to estimate the precision matrices. The estimated transition and precision matrices are then used to determine the time-varying network structures. Under some mild conditions, we derive the theoretical properties of the proposed estimates including the consistency and oracle properties. In addition, we extend the methodology and theory to cover highly-correlated large-scale time series, for which the sparsity assumption becomes invalid and we allow for common factors before estimating the factor-adjusted time-varying networks. We provide extensive simulation studies and an empirical application to a large U.S. macroeconomic dataset to illustrate the finite-sample performance of our methods.
Developing simple, sample-efficient learning algorithms for robust classification is a pressing issue in today's tech-dominated world, and current theoretical techniques requiring exponential sample complexity and complicated improper learning rules fall far from answering the need. In this work we study the fundamental paradigm of (robust) $\textit{empirical risk minimization}$ (RERM), a simple process in which the learner outputs any hypothesis minimizing its training error. RERM famously fails to robustly learn VC classes (Montasser et al., 2019a), a bound we show extends even to `nice' settings such as (bounded) halfspaces. As such, we study a recent relaxation of the robust model called $\textit{tolerant}$ robust learning (Ashtiani et al., 2022) where the output classifier is compared to the best achievable error over slightly larger perturbation sets. We show that under geometric niceness conditions, a natural tolerant variant of RERM is indeed sufficient for $\gamma$-tolerant robust learning VC classes over $\mathbb{R}^d$, and requires only $\tilde{O}\left( \frac{VC(H)d\log \frac{D}{\gamma\delta}}{\epsilon^2}\right)$ samples for robustness regions of (maximum) diameter $D$.
Physics informed neural networks (PINNs) have proven to be an efficient tool to represent problems for which measured data are available and for which the dynamics in the data are expected to follow some physical laws. In this paper, we suggest a multiobjective perspective on the training of PINNs by treating the data loss and the residual loss as two individual objective functions in a truly biobjective optimization approach. As a showcase example, we consider COVID-19 predictions in Germany and built an extended susceptibles-infected-recovered (SIR) model with additionally considered leaky-vaccinated and hospitalized populations (SVIHR model) to model the transition rates and to predict future infections. SIR-type models are expressed by systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We investigate the suitability of the generated PINN for COVID-19 predictions and compare the resulting predicted curves with those obtained by applying the method of non-standard finite differences to the system of ODEs and initial data. The approach is applicable to various systems of ODEs that define dynamical regimes. Those regimes do not need to be SIR-type models, and the corresponding underlying data sets do not have to be associated with COVID-19.
Slope failures possess destructive power that can cause significant damage to both life and infrastructure. Monitoring slopes prone to instabilities is therefore critical in mitigating the risk posed by their failure. The purpose of slope monitoring is to detect precursory signs of stability issues, such as changes in the rate of displacement with which a slope is deforming. This information can then be used to predict the timing or probability of an imminent failure in order to provide an early warning. In this study, a more objective, statistical-learning algorithm is proposed to detect and characterise the risk of a slope failure, based on spectral analysis of serially correlated displacement time series data. The algorithm is applied to satellite-based interferometric synthetic radar (InSAR) displacement time series data to retrospectively analyse the risk of the 2019 Brumadinho tailings dam collapse in Brazil. Two potential risk milestones are identified and signs of a definitive but emergent risk (27 February 2018 to 26 August 2018) and imminent risk of collapse of the tailings dam (27 June 2018 to 24 December 2018) are detected by the algorithm. Importantly, this precursory indication of risk of failure is detected as early as at least five months prior to the dam collapse on 25 January 2019. The results of this study demonstrate that the combination of spectral methods and second order statistical properties of InSAR displacement time series data can reveal signs of a transition into an unstable deformation regime, and that this algorithm can provide sufficient early warning that could help mitigate catastrophic slope failures.
This book develops an effective theory approach to understanding deep neural networks of practical relevance. Beginning from a first-principles component-level picture of networks, we explain how to determine an accurate description of the output of trained networks by solving layer-to-layer iteration equations and nonlinear learning dynamics. A main result is that the predictions of networks are described by nearly-Gaussian distributions, with the depth-to-width aspect ratio of the network controlling the deviations from the infinite-width Gaussian description. We explain how these effectively-deep networks learn nontrivial representations from training and more broadly analyze the mechanism of representation learning for nonlinear models. From a nearly-kernel-methods perspective, we find that the dependence of such models' predictions on the underlying learning algorithm can be expressed in a simple and universal way. To obtain these results, we develop the notion of representation group flow (RG flow) to characterize the propagation of signals through the network. By tuning networks to criticality, we give a practical solution to the exploding and vanishing gradient problem. We further explain how RG flow leads to near-universal behavior and lets us categorize networks built from different activation functions into universality classes. Altogether, we show that the depth-to-width ratio governs the effective model complexity of the ensemble of trained networks. By using information-theoretic techniques, we estimate the optimal aspect ratio at which we expect the network to be practically most useful and show how residual connections can be used to push this scale to arbitrary depths. With these tools, we can learn in detail about the inductive bias of architectures, hyperparameters, and optimizers.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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