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We study a new two-time-scale stochastic gradient method for solving optimization problems, where the gradients are computed with the aid of an auxiliary variable under samples generated by time-varying Markov random processes parameterized by the underlying optimization variable. These time-varying samples make gradient directions in our update biased and dependent, which can potentially lead to the divergence of the iterates. In our two-time-scale approach, one scale is to estimate the true gradient from these samples, which is then used to update the estimate of the optimal solution. While these two iterates are implemented simultaneously, the former is updated "faster" (using bigger step sizes) than the latter (using smaller step sizes). Our first contribution is to characterize the finite-time complexity of the proposed two-time-scale stochastic gradient method. In particular, we provide explicit formulas for the convergence rates of this method under different structural assumptions, namely, strong convexity, convexity, the Polyak-Lojasiewicz condition, and general non-convexity. We apply our framework to two problems in control and reinforcement learning. First, we look at the standard online actor-critic algorithm over finite state and action spaces and derive a convergence rate of O(k^(-2/5)), which recovers the best known rate derived specifically for this problem. Second, we study an online actor-critic algorithm for the linear-quadratic regulator and show that a convergence rate of O(k^(-2/3)) is achieved. This is the first time such a result is known in the literature. Finally, we support our theoretical analysis with numerical simulations where the convergence rates are visualized.

Community detection refers to the problem of clustering the nodes of a network into groups. Existing inferential methods for community structure mainly focus on unweighted (binary) networks. Many real-world networks are nonetheless weighted and a common practice is to dichotomize a weighted network to an unweighted one which is known to result in information loss. Literature on hypothesis testing in the latter situation is still missing. In this paper, we study the problem of testing the existence of community structure in weighted networks. Our contributions are threefold: (a). We use the (possibly infinite-dimensional) exponential family to model the weights and derive the sharp information-theoretic limit for the existence of consistent test. Within the limit, any test is inconsistent; and beyond the limit, we propose a useful consistent test. (b). Based on the information-theoretic limits, we provide the first formal way to quantify the loss of information incurred by dichotomizing weighted graphs into unweighted graphs in the context of hypothesis testing. (c). We propose several new and practically useful test statistics. Simulation study show that the proposed tests have good performance. Finally, we apply the proposed tests to an animal social network.

We give a fast algorithm for sampling uniform solutions of general constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs) in a local lemma regime. The expected running time of our algorithm is near-linear in $n$ and a fixed polynomial in $\Delta$, where $n$ is the number of variables and $\Delta$ is the max degree of constraints. Previously, up to similar conditions, sampling algorithms with running time polynomial in both $n$ and $\Delta$, only existed for the almost atomic case, where each constraint is violated by a small number of forbidden local configurations. Our sampling approach departs from all previous fast algorithms for sampling LLL, which were based on Markov chains. A crucial step of our algorithm is a recursive marginal sampler that is of independent interests. Within a local lemma regime, this marginal sampler can draw a random value for a variable according to its marginal distribution, at a local cost independent of the size of the CSP.

Existing inferential methods for small area data involve a trade-off between maintaining area-level frequentist coverage rates and improving inferential precision via the incorporation of indirect information. In this article, we propose a method to obtain an area-level prediction region for a future observation which mitigates this trade-off. The proposed method takes a conformal prediction approach in which the conformity measure is the posterior predictive density of a working model that incorporates indirect information. The resulting prediction region has guaranteed frequentist coverage regardless of the working model, and, if the working model assumptions are accurate, the region has minimum expected volume compared to other regions with the same coverage rate. When constructed under a normal working model, we prove such a prediction region is an interval and construct an efficient algorithm to obtain the exact interval. We illustrate the performance of our method through simulation studies and an application to EPA radon survey data.

In this work, we focus on the high-dimensional trace regression model with a low-rank coefficient matrix. We establish a nearly optimal in-sample prediction risk bound for the rank-constrained least-squares estimator under no assumptions on the design matrix. Lying at the heart of the proof is a covering number bound for the family of projection operators corresponding to the subspaces spanned by the design. By leveraging this complexity result, we perform a power analysis for a permutation test on the existence of a low-rank signal under the high-dimensional trace regression model. We show that the permutation test based on the rank-constrained least-squares estimator achieves non-trivial power with no assumptions on the minimum (restricted) eigenvalue of the covariance matrix of the design. Finally, we use alternating minimization to approximately solve the rank-constrained least-squares problem to evaluate its empirical in-sample prediction risk and power of the resulting permutation test in our numerical study.

We propose a novel concise function representation for graphical models, a central theoretical framework that provides the basis for many reasoning tasks. We then show how we exploit our concise representation based on deterministic finite state automata within Bucket Elimination (BE), a general approach based on the concept of variable elimination that can be used to solve many inference and optimisation tasks, such as most probable explanation and constrained optimisation. We denote our version of BE as FABE. By using our concise representation within FABE, we dramatically improve the performance of BE in terms of runtime and memory requirements. Results achieved by comparing FABE with state of the art approaches for most probable explanation (i.e., recursive best-first and structured message passing) and constrained optimisation (i.e., CPLEX, GUROBI, and toulbar2) following an established methodology confirm the efficacy of our concise function representation, showing runtime improvements of up to 5 orders of magnitude in our tests.

We introduce a novel methodology for particle filtering in dynamical systems where the evolution of the signal of interest is described by a SDE and observations are collected instantaneously at prescribed time instants. The new approach includes the discretisation of the SDE and the design of efficient particle filters for the resulting discrete-time state-space model. The discretisation scheme converges with weak order 1 and it is devised to create a sequential dependence structure along the coordinates of the discrete-time state vector. We introduce a class of space-sequential particle filters that exploits this structure to improve performance when the system dimension is large. This is numerically illustrated by a set of computer simulations for a stochastic Lorenz 96 system with additive noise. The new space-sequential particle filters attain approximately constant estimation errors as the dimension of the Lorenz 96 system is increased, with a computational cost that increases polynomially, rather than exponentially, with the system dimension. Besides the new numerical scheme and particle filters, we provide in this paper a general framework for discrete-time filtering in continuous-time dynamical systems described by a SDE and instantaneous observations. Provided that the SDE is discretised using a weakly-convergent scheme, we prove that the marginal posterior laws of the resulting discrete-time state-space model converge to the posterior marginal posterior laws of the original continuous-time state-space model under a suitably defined metric. This result is general and not restricted to the numerical scheme or particle filters specifically studied in this manuscript.

We provide a new analysis of local SGD, removing unnecessary assumptions and elaborating on the difference between two data regimes: identical and heterogeneous. In both cases, we improve the existing theory and provide values of the optimal stepsize and optimal number of local iterations. Our bounds are based on a new notion of variance that is specific to local SGD methods with different data. The tightness of our results is guaranteed by recovering known statements when we plug $H=1$, where $H$ is the number of local steps. The empirical evidence further validates the severe impact of data heterogeneity on the performance of local SGD.

In variable selection, a selection rule that prescribes the permissible sets of selected variables (called a "selection dictionary") is desirable due to the inherent structural constraints among the candidate variables. The methods that can incorporate such restrictions can improve model interpretability and prediction accuracy. Penalized regression can integrate selection rules by assigning the coefficients to different groups and then applying penalties to the groups. However, no general framework has been proposed to formalize selection rules and their applications. In this work, we establish a framework for structured variable selection that can incorporate universal structural constraints. We develop a mathematical language for constructing arbitrary selection rules, where the selection dictionary is formally defined. We show that all selection rules can be represented as a combination of operations on constructs, which can be used to identify the related selection dictionary. One may then apply some criteria to select the best model. We show that the theoretical framework can help to identify the grouping structure in existing penalized regression methods. In addition, we formulate structured variable selection into mixed-integer optimization problems which can be solved by existing software. Finally, we discuss the significance of the framework in the context of statistics.

We recall some of the history of the information-theoretic approach to deriving core results in probability theory and indicate parts of the recent resurgence of interest in this area with current progress along several interesting directions. Then we give a new information-theoretic proof of a finite version of de Finetti's classical representation theorem for finite-valued random variables. We derive an upper bound on the relative entropy between the distribution of the first $k$ in a sequence of $n$ exchangeable random variables, and an appropriate mixture over product distributions. The mixing measure is characterised as the law of the empirical measure of the original sequence, and de Finetti's result is recovered as a corollary. The proof is nicely motivated by the Gibbs conditioning principle in connection with statistical mechanics, and it follows along an appealing sequence of steps. The technical estimates required for these steps are obtained via the use of a collection of combinatorial tools known within information theory as `the method of types.'