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The issue of distinguishing between the same-source and different-source hypotheses based on various types of traces is a generic problem in forensic science. This problem is often tackled with Bayesian approaches, which are able to provide a likelihood ratio that quantifies the relative strengths of evidence supporting each of the two competing hypotheses. Here, we focus on distance-based approaches, whose robustness and specifically whose capacity to deal with high-dimensional evidence are very different, and need to be evaluated and optimized. A unified framework for direct methods based on estimating the likelihoods of the distance between traces under each of the two competing hypotheses, and indirect methods using logistic regression to discriminate between same-source and different-source distance distributions, is presented. Whilst direct methods are more flexible, indirect methods are more robust and quite natural in machine learning. Moreover, indirect methods also enable the use of a vectorial distance, thus preventing the severe information loss suffered by scalar distance approaches.Direct and indirect methods are compared in terms of sensitivity, specificity and robustness, with and without dimensionality reduction, with and without feature selection, on the example of hand odor profiles, a novel and challenging type of evidence in the field of forensics. Empirical evaluations on a large panel of 534 subjects and their 1690 odor traces show the significant superiority of the indirect methods, especially without dimensionality reduction, be it with or without feature selection.

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Autonomous exploration is a new technology in the field of robotics that has found widespread application due to its objective to help robots independently localize, scan maps, and navigate any terrain without human control. Up to present, the sampling-based exploration strategies have been the most effective for aerial and ground vehicles equipped with depth sensors producing three-dimensional point clouds. Those methods utilize the sampling task to choose random points or make samples based on Rapidly-exploring Random Trees (RRT). Then, they decide on frontiers or Next Best Views (NBV) with useful volumetric information. However, most state-of-the-art sampling-based methodology is challenging to implement in two-dimensional robots due to the lack of environmental knowledge, thus resulting in a bad volumetric gain for evaluating random destinations. This study proposed an enhanced sampling-based solution for indoor robot exploration to decide Next Best View (NBV) in 2D environments. Our method makes RRT until have the endpoints as frontiers and evaluates those with the enhanced utility function. The volumetric information obtained from environments was estimated using non-uniform distribution to determine cells that are occupied and have an uncertain probability. Compared to the sampling-based Frontier Detection and Receding Horizon NBV approaches, the methodology executed performed better in Gazebo platform-simulated environments, achieving a significantly larger explored area, with the average distance and time traveled being reduced. Moreover, the operated proposed method on an author-built 2D robot exploring the entire natural environment confirms that the method is effective and applicable in real-world scenarios.

In reinforcement learning, unsupervised skill discovery aims to learn diverse skills without extrinsic rewards. Previous methods discover skills by maximizing the mutual information (MI) between states and skills. However, such an MI objective tends to learn simple and static skills and may hinder exploration. In this paper, we propose a novel unsupervised skill discovery method through contrastive learning among behaviors, which makes the agent produce similar behaviors for the same skill and diverse behaviors for different skills. Under mild assumptions, our objective maximizes the MI between different behaviors based on the same skill, which serves as an upper bound of the previous MI objective. Meanwhile, our method implicitly increases the state entropy to obtain better state coverage. We evaluate our method on challenging mazes and continuous control tasks. The results show that our method generates diverse and far-reaching skills, and also obtains competitive performance in downstream tasks compared to the state-of-the-art methods.

For clinical studies with continuous outcomes, when the data are potentially skewed, researchers may choose to report the whole or part of the five-number summary (the sample median, the first and third quartiles, and the minimum and maximum values) rather than the sample mean and standard deviation. In the recent literature, it is often suggested to transform the five-number summary back to the sample mean and standard deviation, which can be subsequently used in a meta-analysis. However, if a study contains skewed data, this transformation and hence the conclusions from the meta-analysis are unreliable. Therefore, we introduce a novel method for detecting the skewness of data using only the five-number summary and the sample size, and meanwhile propose a new flow chart to handle the skewed studies in a different manner. We further show by simulations that our skewness tests are able to control the type I error rates and provide good statistical power, followed by a simulated meta-analysis and a real data example that illustrate the usefulness of our new method in meta-analysis and evidence-based medicine.

Consider a regression or some regression-type model for a certain response variable where the linear predictor includes an ordered factor among the explanatory variables. The inclusion of a factor of this type can take place is a few different ways, discussed in the pertaining literature. The present contribution proposes a different way of tackling this problem, by constructing a numeric variable in an alternative way with respect to the current methodology. The proposed techniques appears to retain the data fitting capability of the existing methodology, but with a simpler interpretation of the model components.

Model-based approaches to reinforcement learning (MBRL) exhibit favorable performance in practice, but their theoretical guarantees in large spaces are mostly restricted to the setting when transition model is Gaussian or Lipschitz, and demands a posterior estimate whose representational complexity grows unbounded with time. In this work, we develop a novel MBRL method (i) which relaxes the assumptions on the target transition model to belong to a generic family of mixture models; (ii) is applicable to large-scale training by incorporating a compression step such that the posterior estimate consists of a Bayesian coreset of only statistically significant past state-action pairs; and (iii) exhibits a sublinear Bayesian regret. To achieve these results, we adopt an approach based upon Stein's method, which, under a smoothness condition on the constructed posterior and target, allows distributional distance to be evaluated in closed form as the kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD). The aforementioned compression step is then computed in terms of greedily retaining only those samples which are more than a certain KSD away from the previous model estimate. Experimentally, we observe that this approach is competitive with several state-of-the-art RL methodologies, and can achieve up-to 50 percent reduction in wall clock time in some continuous control environments.

Controller synthesis is in essence a case of model-based planning for non-deterministic environments in which plans (actually ''strategies'') are meant to preserve system goals indefinitely. In the case of supervisory control environments are specified as the parallel composition of state machines and valid strategies are required to be ''non-blocking'' (i.e., always enabling the environment to reach certain marked states) in addition to safe (i.e., keep the system within a safe zone). Recently, On-the-fly Directed Controller Synthesis techniques were proposed to avoid the exploration of the entire -and exponentially large-environment space, at the cost of non-maximal permissiveness, to either find a strategy or conclude that there is none. The incremental exploration of the plant is currently guided by a domain-independent human-designed heuristic. In this work, we propose a new method for obtaining heuristics based on Reinforcement Learning (RL). The synthesis algorithm is thus framed as an RL task with an unbounded action space and a modified version of DQN is used. With a simple and general set of features that abstracts both states and actions, we show that it is possible to learn heuristics on small versions of a problem that generalize to the larger instances, effectively doing zero-shot policy transfer. Our agents learn from scratch in a highly partially observable RL task and outperform the existing heuristic overall, in instances unseen during training.

In this work we propose a low rank approximation of high fidelity finite element simulations by utilizing weights corresponding to areas of high stress levels for an abdominal aortic aneurysm, i.e. a deformed blood vessel. We focus on the van Mises stress, which corresponds to the rupture risk of the aorta. This is modeled as a Gaussian Markov random field and we define our approximation as a basis of vectors that solve a series of optimization problems. Each of these problems describes the minimization of an expected weighted quadratic loss. The weights, which encapsulate the importance of each grid point of the finite elements, can be chosen freely - either data driven or by incorporating domain knowledge. Along with a more general discussion of mathematical properties we provide an effective numerical heuristic to compute the basis under general conditions. We explicitly explore two such bases on the surface of a high fidelity finite element grid and show their efficiency for compression. We further utilize the approach to predict the van Mises stress in areas of interest using low and high fidelity simulations. Due to the high dimension of the data we have to take extra care to keep the problem numerically feasible. This is also a major concern of this work.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical to ensuring the reliability and safety of machine learning systems. For instance, in autonomous driving, we would like the driving system to issue an alert and hand over the control to humans when it detects unusual scenes or objects that it has never seen before and cannot make a safe decision. This problem first emerged in 2017 and since then has received increasing attention from the research community, leading to a plethora of methods developed, ranging from classification-based to density-based to distance-based ones. Meanwhile, several other problems are closely related to OOD detection in terms of motivation and methodology. These include anomaly detection (AD), novelty detection (ND), open set recognition (OSR), and outlier detection (OD). Despite having different definitions and problem settings, these problems often confuse readers and practitioners, and as a result, some existing studies misuse terms. In this survey, we first present a generic framework called generalized OOD detection, which encompasses the five aforementioned problems, i.e., AD, ND, OSR, OOD detection, and OD. Under our framework, these five problems can be seen as special cases or sub-tasks, and are easier to distinguish. Then, we conduct a thorough review of each of the five areas by summarizing their recent technical developments. We conclude this survey with open challenges and potential research directions.

Transfer learning aims at improving the performance of target learners on target domains by transferring the knowledge contained in different but related source domains. In this way, the dependence on a large number of target domain data can be reduced for constructing target learners. Due to the wide application prospects, transfer learning has become a popular and promising area in machine learning. Although there are already some valuable and impressive surveys on transfer learning, these surveys introduce approaches in a relatively isolated way and lack the recent advances in transfer learning. As the rapid expansion of the transfer learning area, it is both necessary and challenging to comprehensively review the relevant studies. This survey attempts to connect and systematize the existing transfer learning researches, as well as to summarize and interpret the mechanisms and the strategies in a comprehensive way, which may help readers have a better understanding of the current research status and ideas. Different from previous surveys, this survey paper reviews over forty representative transfer learning approaches from the perspectives of data and model. The applications of transfer learning are also briefly introduced. In order to show the performance of different transfer learning models, twenty representative transfer learning models are used for experiments. The models are performed on three different datasets, i.e., Amazon Reviews, Reuters-21578, and Office-31. And the experimental results demonstrate the importance of selecting appropriate transfer learning models for different applications in practice.

Meta-reinforcement learning algorithms can enable robots to acquire new skills much more quickly, by leveraging prior experience to learn how to learn. However, much of the current research on meta-reinforcement learning focuses on task distributions that are very narrow. For example, a commonly used meta-reinforcement learning benchmark uses different running velocities for a simulated robot as different tasks. When policies are meta-trained on such narrow task distributions, they cannot possibly generalize to more quickly acquire entirely new tasks. Therefore, if the aim of these methods is to enable faster acquisition of entirely new behaviors, we must evaluate them on task distributions that are sufficiently broad to enable generalization to new behaviors. In this paper, we propose an open-source simulated benchmark for meta-reinforcement learning and multi-task learning consisting of 50 distinct robotic manipulation tasks. Our aim is to make it possible to develop algorithms that generalize to accelerate the acquisition of entirely new, held-out tasks. We evaluate 6 state-of-the-art meta-reinforcement learning and multi-task learning algorithms on these tasks. Surprisingly, while each task and its variations (e.g., with different object positions) can be learned with reasonable success, these algorithms struggle to learn with multiple tasks at the same time, even with as few as ten distinct training tasks. Our analysis and open-source environments pave the way for future research in multi-task learning and meta-learning that can enable meaningful generalization, thereby unlocking the full potential of these methods.

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