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We establish optimal Statistical Query (SQ) lower bounds for robustly learning certain families of discrete high-dimensional distributions. In particular, we show that no efficient SQ algorithm with access to an $\epsilon$-corrupted binary product distribution can learn its mean within $\ell_2$-error $o(\epsilon \sqrt{\log(1/\epsilon)})$. Similarly, we show that no efficient SQ algorithm with access to an $\epsilon$-corrupted ferromagnetic high-temperature Ising model can learn the model to total variation distance $o(\epsilon \log(1/\epsilon))$. Our SQ lower bounds match the error guarantees of known algorithms for these problems, providing evidence that current upper bounds for these tasks are best possible. At the technical level, we develop a generic SQ lower bound for discrete high-dimensional distributions starting from low dimensional moment matching constructions that we believe will find other applications. Additionally, we introduce new ideas to analyze these moment-matching constructions for discrete univariate distributions.

Techniques of hybridisation and ensemble learning are popular model fusion techniques for improving the predictive power of forecasting methods. With limited research that instigates combining these two promising approaches, this paper focuses on the utility of the Exponential-Smoothing-Recurrent Neural Network (ES-RNN) in the pool of base models for different ensembles. We compare against some state of the art ensembling techniques and arithmetic model averaging as a benchmark. We experiment with the M4 forecasting data set of 100,000 time-series, and the results show that the Feature-based Forecast Model Averaging (FFORMA), on average, is the best technique for late data fusion with the ES-RNN. However, considering the M4's Daily subset of data, stacking was the only successful ensemble at dealing with the case where all base model performances are similar. Our experimental results indicate that we attain state of the art forecasting results compared to N-BEATS as a benchmark. We conclude that model averaging is a more robust ensemble than model selection and stacking strategies. Further, the results show that gradient boosting is superior for implementing ensemble learning strategies.

In this paper we elaborate an extension of rotation-based iterative Gaussianization, RBIG, which makes image Gaussianization possible. Although RBIG has been successfully applied to many tasks, it is limited to medium dimensionality data (on the order of a thousand dimensions). In images its application has been restricted to small image patches or isolated pixels, because rotation in RBIG is based on principal or independent component analysis and these transformations are difficult to learn and scale. Here we present the \emph{Convolutional RBIG}: an extension that alleviates this issue by imposing that the rotation in RBIG is a convolution. We propose to learn convolutional rotations (i.e. orthonormal convolutions) by optimising for the reconstruction loss between the input and an approximate inverse of the transformation using the transposed convolution operation. Additionally, we suggest different regularizers in learning these orthonormal convolutions. For example, imposing sparsity in the activations leads to a transformation that extends convolutional independent component analysis to multilayer architectures. We also highlight how statistical properties of the data, such as multivariate mutual information, can be obtained from \emph{Convolutional RBIG}. We illustrate the behavior of the transform with a simple example of texture synthesis, and analyze its properties by visualizing the stimuli that maximize the response in certain feature and layer.

Exponential generalization bounds with near-tight rates have recently been established for uniformly stable learning algorithms. The notion of uniform stability, however, is stringent in the sense that it is invariant to the data-generating distribution. Under the weaker and distribution dependent notions of stability such as hypothesis stability and $L_2$-stability, the literature suggests that only polynomial generalization bounds are possible in general cases. The present paper addresses this long standing tension between these two regimes of results and makes progress towards relaxing it inside a classic framework of confidence-boosting. To this end, we first establish an in-expectation first moment generalization error bound for potentially randomized learning algorithms with $L_2$-stability, based on which we then show that a properly designed subbagging process leads to near-tight exponential generalization bounds over the randomness of both data and algorithm. We further substantialize these generic results to stochastic gradient descent (SGD) to derive improved high-probability generalization bounds for convex or non-convex optimization problems with natural time decaying learning rates, which have not been possible to prove with the existing hypothesis stability or uniform stability based results.

In machine learning, data augmentation (DA) is a technique for improving the generalization performance. In this paper, we mainly considered gradient descent of linear regression under DA using noisy copies of datasets, in which noise is injected into inputs. We analyzed the situation where random noisy copies are newly generated and used at each epoch; i.e., the case of using on-line noisy copies. Therefore, it is viewed as an analysis on a method using noise injection into training process by DA manner; i.e., on-line version of DA. We derived the averaged behavior of training process under three situations which are the full-batch training under the sum of squared errors, the full-batch and mini-batch training under the mean squared error. We showed that, in all cases, training for DA with on-line copies is approximately equivalent to a ridge regression training whose regularization parameter corresponds to the variance of injected noise. On the other hand, we showed that the learning rate is multiplied by the number of noisy copies plus one in full-batch under the sum of squared errors and the mini-batch under the mean squared error; i.e., DA with on-line copies yields apparent acceleration of training. The apparent acceleration and regularization effect come from the original part and noise in a copy data respectively. These results are confirmed in a numerical experiment. In the numerical experiment, we found that our result can be approximately applied to usual off-line DA in under-parameterization scenario and can not in over-parametrization scenario. Moreover, we experimentally investigated the training process of neural networks under DA with off-line noisy copies and found that our analysis on linear regression is possible to be applied to neural networks.

Most machine learning methods are used as a black box for modelling. We may try to extract some knowledge from physics-based training methods, such as neural ODE (ordinary differential equation). Neural ODE has advantages like a possibly higher class of represented functions, the extended interpretability compared to black-box machine learning models, ability to describe both trend and local behaviour. Such advantages are especially critical for time series with complicated trends. However, the known drawback is the high training time compared to the autoregressive models and long-short term memory (LSTM) networks widely used for data-driven time series modelling. Therefore, we should be able to balance interpretability and training time to apply neural ODE in practice. The paper shows that modern neural ODE cannot be reduced to simpler models for time-series modelling applications. The complexity of neural ODE is compared to or exceeds the conventional time-series modelling tools. The only interpretation that could be extracted is the eigenspace of the operator, which is an ill-posed problem for a large system. Spectra could be extracted using different classical analysis methods that do not have the drawback of extended time. Consequently, we reduce the neural ODE to a simpler linear form and propose a new view on time-series modelling using combined neural networks and an ODE system approach.

Considering two random variables with different laws to which we only have access through finite size iid samples, we address how to reweight the first sample so that its empirical distribution converges towards the true law of the second sample as the size of both samples goes to infinity. We study an optimal reweighting that minimizes the Wasserstein distance between the empirical measures of the two samples, and leads to an expression of the weights in terms of Nearest Neighbors. The consistency and some asymptotic convergence rates in terms of expected Wasserstein distance are derived, and do not need the assumption of absolute continuity of one random variable with respect to the other. These results have some application in Uncertainty Quantification for decoupled estimation and in the bound of the generalization error for the Nearest Neighbor Regression under covariate shift.

We provide quantitative bounds measuring the $L^2$ difference in function space between the trajectory of a finite-width network trained on finitely many samples from the idealized kernel dynamics of infinite width and infinite data. An implication of the bounds is that the network is biased to learn the top eigenfunctions of the Neural Tangent Kernel not just on the training set but over the entire input space. This bias depends on the model architecture and input distribution alone and thus does not depend on the target function which does not need to be in the RKHS of the kernel. The result is valid for deep architectures with fully connected, convolutional, and residual layers. Furthermore the width does not need to grow polynomially with the number of samples in order to obtain high probability bounds up to a stopping time. The proof exploits the low-effective-rank property of the Fisher Information Matrix at initialization, which implies a low effective dimension of the model (far smaller than the number of parameters). We conclude that local capacity control from the low effective rank of the Fisher Information Matrix is still underexplored theoretically.

Algorithmic fairness plays an important role in machine learning and imposing fairness constraints during learning is a common approach. However, many datasets are imbalanced in certain label classes (e.g. "healthy") and sensitive subgroups (e.g. "older patients"). Empirically, this imbalance leads to a lack of generalizability not only of classification, but also of fairness properties, especially in over-parameterized models. For example, fairness-aware training may ensure equalized odds (EO) on the training data, but EO is far from being satisfied on new users. In this paper, we propose a theoretically-principled, yet Flexible approach that is Imbalance-Fairness-Aware (FIFA). Specifically, FIFA encourages both classification and fairness generalization and can be flexibly combined with many existing fair learning methods with logits-based losses. While our main focus is on EO, FIFA can be directly applied to achieve equalized opportunity (EqOpt); and under certain conditions, it can also be applied to other fairness notions. We demonstrate the power of FIFA by combining it with a popular fair classification algorithm, and the resulting algorithm achieves significantly better fairness generalization on several real-world datasets.

Time Series Classification (TSC) is an important and challenging problem in data mining. With the increase of time series data availability, hundreds of TSC algorithms have been proposed. Among these methods, only a few have considered Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to perform this task. This is surprising as deep learning has seen very successful applications in the last years. DNNs have indeed revolutionized the field of computer vision especially with the advent of novel deeper architectures such as Residual and Convolutional Neural Networks. Apart from images, sequential data such as text and audio can also be processed with DNNs to reach state-of-the-art performance for document classification and speech recognition. In this article, we study the current state-of-the-art performance of deep learning algorithms for TSC by presenting an empirical study of the most recent DNN architectures for TSC. We give an overview of the most successful deep learning applications in various time series domains under a unified taxonomy of DNNs for TSC. We also provide an open source deep learning framework to the TSC community where we implemented each of the compared approaches and evaluated them on a univariate TSC benchmark (the UCR/UEA archive) and 12 multivariate time series datasets. By training 8,730 deep learning models on 97 time series datasets, we propose the most exhaustive study of DNNs for TSC to date.