Causality lays the foundation for the trajectory of our world. Causal inference (CI), which aims to infer intrinsic causal relations among variables of interest, has emerged as a crucial research topic. Nevertheless, the lack of observation of important variables (e.g., confounders, mediators, exogenous variables, etc.) severely compromises the reliability of CI methods. The issue may arise from the inherent difficulty in measuring the variables. Additionally, in observational studies where variables are passively recorded, certain covariates might be inadvertently omitted by the experimenter. Depending on the type of unobserved variables and the specific CI task, various consequences can be incurred if these latent variables are carelessly handled, such as biased estimation of causal effects, incomplete understanding of causal mechanisms, lack of individual-level causal consideration, etc. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of recent developments in CI with latent variables. We start by discussing traditional CI techniques when variables of interest are assumed to be fully observed. Afterward, under the taxonomy of circumvention and inference-based methods, we provide an in-depth discussion of various CI strategies to handle latent variables, covering the tasks of causal effect estimation, mediation analysis, counterfactual reasoning, and causal discovery. Furthermore, we generalize the discussion to graph data where interference among units may exist. Finally, we offer fresh aspects for further advancement of CI with latent variables, especially new opportunities in the era of large language models (LLMs).
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Adapting questionnaires to new languages is a resource-intensive process often requiring the hiring of multiple independent translators, which limits the ability of researchers to conduct cross-cultural research and effectively creates inequalities in research and society. This work presents a prototype tool that can expedite the questionnaire translation process. The tool incorporates forward-backward translation using DeepL alongside GPT-4-generated translation quality evaluations and improvement suggestions. We conducted two online studies in which participants translated questionnaires from English to either German (Study 1; n=10) or Portuguese (Study 2; n=20) using our prototype. To evaluate the quality of the translations created using the tool, evaluation scores between conventionally translated and tool-supported versions were compared. Our results indicate that integrating LLM-generated translation quality evaluations and suggestions for improvement can help users independently attain results similar to those provided by conventional, non-NLP-supported translation methods. This is the first step towards more equitable questionnaire-based research, powered by AI.
Random Projections have been widely used to generate embeddings for various graph learning tasks due to their computational efficiency. The majority of applications have been justified through the Johnson-Lindenstrauss Lemma. In this paper, we take a step further and investigate how well dot product and cosine similarity are preserved by random projections when these are applied over the rows of the graph matrix. Our analysis provides new asymptotic and finite-sample results, identifies pathological cases, and tests them with numerical experiments. We specialize our fundamental results to a ranking application by computing the probability of random projections flipping the node ordering induced by their embeddings. We find that, depending on the degree distribution, the method produces especially unreliable embeddings for the dot product, regardless of whether the adjacency or the normalized transition matrix is used. With respect to the statistical noise introduced by random projections, we show that cosine similarity produces remarkably more precise approximations.
The Path-dependent Neural Jump ODE (PD-NJ-ODE) is a model for online prediction of generic (possibly non-Markovian) stochastic processes with irregular (in time) and potentially incomplete (with respect to coordinates) observations. It is a model for which convergence to the $L^2$-optimal predictor, which is given by the conditional expectation, is established theoretically. Thereby, the training of the model is solely based on a dataset of realizations of the underlying stochastic process, without the need of knowledge of the law of the process. In the case where the underlying process is deterministic, the conditional expectation coincides with the process itself. Therefore, this framework can equivalently be used to learn the dynamics of ODE or PDE systems solely from realizations of the dynamical system with different initial conditions. We showcase the potential of our method by applying it to the chaotic system of a double pendulum. When training the standard PD-NJ-ODE method, we see that the prediction starts to diverge from the true path after about half of the evaluation time. In this work we enhance the model with two novel ideas, which independently of each other improve the performance of our modelling setup. The resulting dynamics match the true dynamics of the chaotic system very closely. The same enhancements can be used to provably enable the PD-NJ-ODE to learn long-term predictions for general stochastic datasets, where the standard model fails. This is verified in several experiments.
Synergizing Knowledge Graphs with Large Language Models: A Comprehensive Review and Future Prospects
Recent advancements have witnessed the ascension of Large Language Models (LLMs), endowed with prodigious linguistic capabilities, albeit marred by shortcomings including factual inconsistencies and opacity. Conversely, Knowledge Graphs (KGs) harbor verifiable knowledge and symbolic reasoning prowess, thereby complementing LLMs' deficiencies. Against this backdrop, the synergy between KGs and LLMs emerges as a pivotal research direction. Our contribution in this paper is a comprehensive dissection of the latest developments in integrating KGs with LLMs. Through meticulous analysis of their confluence points and methodologies, we introduce a unifying framework designed to elucidate and stimulate further exploration among scholars engaged in cognate disciplines. This framework serves a dual purpose: it consolidates extant knowledge while simultaneously delineating novel avenues for real-world deployment, thereby amplifying the translational impact of academic research.
Writing, as an omnipresent form of human communication, permeates nearly every aspect of contemporary life. Consequently, inaccuracies or errors in written communication can lead to profound consequences, ranging from financial losses to potentially life-threatening situations. Spelling mistakes, among the most prevalent writing errors, are frequently encountered due to various factors. This research aims to identify and rectify diverse spelling errors in text using neural networks, specifically leveraging the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) masked language model. To achieve this goal, we compiled a comprehensive dataset encompassing both non-real-word and real-word errors after categorizing different types of spelling mistakes. Subsequently, multiple pre-trained BERT models were employed. To ensure optimal performance in correcting misspelling errors, we propose a combined approach utilizing the BERT masked language model and Levenshtein distance. The results from our evaluation data demonstrate that the system presented herein exhibits remarkable capabilities in identifying and rectifying spelling mistakes, often surpassing existing systems tailored for the Persian language.
Transformers have emerged as the backbone of large language models (LLMs). However, generation remains inefficient due to the need to store in memory a cache of key-value representations for past tokens, whose size scales linearly with the input sequence length and batch size. As a solution, we propose Dynamic Memory Compression (DMC), a method for online key-value cache compression at inference time. Most importantly, the model learns to apply different compression ratios in different heads and layers. We retrofit pre-trained LLMs such as Llama 2 (7B, 13B and 70B) into DMC Transformers, achieving up to 7x throughput increase during auto-regressive inference on an NVIDIA H100 GPU. DMC is applied via continued pre-training on a negligible percentage of the original data without adding any extra parameters. DMC preserves the original downstream performance with up to 4x cache compression, outperforming up-trained grouped-query attention (GQA) and key-value eviction policies (H$_2$O, TOVA). GQA and DMC can be even combined to obtain compounded gains. Hence, DMC can serve as a drop-in replacement for KV caching in existing LLMs to fit longer contexts and larger batches within any given memory budget.
Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) are typically assessed using expensive annotated multimodal benchmarks, which often lag behind the rapidly evolving demands of MLLM evaluation. This paper outlines and validates GenCeption, a novel, annotation-free evaluation method that requires only unimodal data to measure inter-modality semantic coherence and inversely assesses MLLMs' tendency to hallucinate. This approach eliminates the need for costly data annotation, minimizes the risk of training data contamination, results in slower benchmark saturation, and avoids the illusion of emerging abilities. Inspired by the DrawCeption game, GenCeption begins with a non-textual sample and proceeds through iterative description and generation steps. The semantic drift across iterations is quantified using the GC@T metric. Based on the GenCeption method, we establish the MMECeption benchmark for evaluating Vision LLMs (VLLMs), and compare performance of several popular VLLMs and human annotators. Our empirical results validate GenCeption's effectiveness, demonstrating strong correlations with established VLLM benchmarks. VLLMs still significantly lack behind human performance and struggle especially with text-intensive tasks.
Causal inference has shown potential in enhancing the predictive accuracy, fairness, robustness, and explainability of Natural Language Processing (NLP) models by capturing causal relationships among variables. The emergence of generative Large Language Models (LLMs) has significantly impacted various NLP domains, particularly through their advanced reasoning capabilities. This survey focuses on evaluating and improving LLMs from a causal view in the following areas: understanding and improving the LLMs' reasoning capacity, addressing fairness and safety issues in LLMs, complementing LLMs with explanations, and handling multimodality. Meanwhile, LLMs' strong reasoning capacities can in turn contribute to the field of causal inference by aiding causal relationship discovery and causal effect estimations. This review explores the interplay between causal inference frameworks and LLMs from both perspectives, emphasizing their collective potential to further the development of more advanced and equitable artificial intelligence systems.
This article presents the affordances that Generative Artificial Intelligence can have in disinformation context, one of the major threats to our digitalized society. We present a research framework to generate customized agent-based social networks for disinformation simulations that would enable understanding and evaluation of the phenomena whilst discussing open challenges.
Recently, Mutual Information (MI) has attracted attention in bounding the generalization error of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). However, it is intractable to accurately estimate the MI in DNNs, thus most previous works have to relax the MI bound, which in turn weakens the information theoretic explanation for generalization. To address the limitation, this paper introduces a probabilistic representation of DNNs for accurately estimating the MI. Leveraging the proposed MI estimator, we validate the information theoretic explanation for generalization, and derive a tighter generalization bound than the state-of-the-art relaxations.
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