We investigate the potential implications of large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPTs), on the U.S. labor market, focusing on the increased capabilities arising from LLM-powered software compared to LLMs on their own. Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their alignment with LLM capabilities, integrating both human expertise and GPT-4 classifications. Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. We do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline of such LLMs. The projected effects span all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software. Significantly, these impacts are not restricted to industries with higher recent productivity growth. Our analysis suggests that, with access to an LLM, about 15% of all worker tasks in the US could be completed significantly faster at the same level of quality. When incorporating software and tooling built on top of LLMs, this share increases to between 47 and 56% of all tasks. This finding implies that LLM-powered software will have a substantial effect on scaling the economic impacts of the underlying models. We conclude that LLMs such as GPTs exhibit traits of general-purpose technologies, indicating that they could have considerable economic, social, and policy implications.
The continuous evolution of pre-trained large language models with ever-growing parameters and corpus sizes has augmented their capacity to solve complex tasks. This ability, which obviates the necessity for task-specific training or fine-tuning, relies on providing the model with a language description or some task exemplars -- referred to the prompt -- that guide the desired autoregressive generation. Despite the remarkable success, the underlying mechanisms that facilitate such exceptional generalization abilities remain an open question. In this paper, we present a novel framework that formally conceptualizes answer generation for complex natural language tasks as a hierarchical ``template-content'' structure. According to our modeling, there exist pre-trained models that can automatically decompose tasks into constituent steps during autoregressive generation, through language modeling on a sufficiently large corpus, thereby solving them. Our framework offers an explanatory tool for the complex reasoning abilities of large language models from the perspective of modeling autoregressive generation tasks. Our experiments show that practical models exhibit different behaviors for ``template'' and ``content'' providing support for our modeling.
Large language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT and GPT-4, are gaining wide-spread real world use. Yet, these LLMs are closed source, and little is known about their performance in real-world use cases. In academia, LLM performance is often measured on benchmarks which may have leaked into the LLM's training data. We apply and evaluate ChatGPT and GPT-4 for the real-world task of cost-efficiently extracting insights from a text corpus published after the LLMs were trained. We extract 4,392 research challenges in over 90 topics from the 2023 CHI conference proceedings and visualize the research challenges for interactive exploration. We critically evaluate the LLMs on this practical task and conclude that the combination of ChatGPT and GPT-4 makes an excellent cost-efficient means for analyzing a corpus at scale. Cost-efficiency is key for prototyping research ideas and analyzing text corpora from different perspectives, with implications for applying LLMs in academia and practice.
Recent breakthroughs in large language models (LLMs) have brought remarkable success in the field of LLM-as-Agent. Nevertheless, a prevalent assumption is that the information processed by LLMs is consistently honest, neglecting the pervasive deceptive or misleading information in human society and AI-generated content. This oversight makes LLMs susceptible to malicious manipulations, potentially resulting in detrimental outcomes. This study utilizes the intricate Avalon game as a testbed to explore LLMs' potential in deceptive environments. Avalon, full of misinformation and requiring sophisticated logic, manifests as a "Game-of-Thoughts". Inspired by the efficacy of humans' recursive thinking and perspective-taking in the Avalon game, we introduce a novel framework, Recursive Contemplation (ReCon), to enhance LLMs' ability to identify and counteract deceptive information. ReCon combines formulation and refinement contemplation processes; formulation contemplation produces initial thoughts and speech, while refinement contemplation further polishes them. Additionally, we incorporate first-order and second-order perspective transitions into these processes respectively. Specifically, the first-order allows an LLM agent to infer others' mental states, and the second-order involves understanding how others perceive the agent's mental state. After integrating ReCon with different LLMs, extensive experiment results from the Avalon game indicate its efficacy in aiding LLMs to discern and maneuver around deceptive information without extra fine-tuning and data. Finally, we offer a possible explanation for the efficacy of ReCon and explore the current limitations of LLMs in terms of safety, reasoning, speaking style, and format, potentially furnishing insights for subsequent research.
Large Language Models (LLMs) have the ability to solve a variety of tasks, such as text summarization and mathematical questions, just out of the box, but they are often trained with a single task in mind. Due to high computational costs, the current trend is to use prompt instruction tuning to better adjust monolithic, pretrained LLMs for new -- but often individual -- downstream tasks. Thus, how one would expand prompt tuning to handle -- concomitantly -- heterogeneous tasks and data distributions is a widely open question. To address this gap, we suggest the use of \emph{Mixture of Prompts}, or MoPs, associated with smart gating functionality: the latter -- whose design is one of the contributions of this paper -- can identify relevant skills embedded in different groups of prompts and dynamically assign combined experts (i.e., collection of prompts), based on the target task. Additionally, MoPs are empirically agnostic to any model compression technique applied -- for efficiency reasons -- as well as instruction data source and task composition. In practice, MoPs can simultaneously mitigate prompt training "interference" in multi-task, multi-source scenarios (e.g., task and data heterogeneity across sources), as well as possible implications from model approximations. As a highlight, MoPs manage to decrease final perplexity from $\sim20\%$ up to $\sim70\%$, as compared to baselines, in the federated scenario, and from $\sim 3\%$ up to $\sim30\%$ in the centralized scenario.
The recent progress in large language models (LLMs), especially the invention of chain-of-thought prompting, has made it possible to automatically answer questions by stepwise reasoning. However, when faced with more complicated problems that require non-linear thinking, even the strongest LLMs make mistakes. To address this, we explore whether LLMs are able to recognize errors in their own step-by-step reasoning, without resorting to external resources. To this end, we propose SelfCheck, a general-purpose zero-shot verification schema for recognizing such errors. We then use the results of these checks to improve question-answering performance by conducting weighted voting on multiple solutions to the question. We test SelfCheck on three datasets (GSM8K, MathQA, and MATH) and find that it successfully recognizes errors and, in turn, increases final answer accuracies.
Increasing the context length of large language models (LLMs) unlocks fundamentally new capabilities, but also significantly increases the memory footprints of training. Previous model-parallel systems such as Megatron-LM partition and compute different attention heads in parallel, resulting in large communication volumes, so they cannot scale beyond the number of attention heads, thereby hindering its adoption. In this paper, we introduce a new approach, LightSeq, for long-context LLMs training. LightSeq has many notable advantages. First, LightSeq partitions over the sequence dimension, hence is agnostic to model architectures and readily applicable for models with varying numbers of attention heads, such as Multi-Head, Multi-Query and Grouped-Query attention. Second, LightSeq not only requires up to 4.7x less communication than Megatron-LM on popular LLMs but also overlaps the communication with computation. To further reduce the training time, LightSeq features a novel gradient checkpointing scheme to bypass an forward computation for memory-efficient attention. We evaluate LightSeq on Llama-7B and its variants with sequence lengths from 32K to 512K. Through comprehensive experiments on single and cross-node training, we show that LightSeq achieves up to 1.24-2.01x end-to-end speedup, and a 2-8x longer sequence length on models with fewer heads, compared to Megatron-LM. Codes will be available at //github.com/RulinShao/LightSeq.
Large Language Models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT, have achieved impressive milestones in natural language processing (NLP). Despite their impressive performance, the models are known to pose important risks. As these models are deployed in real-world applications, a systematic understanding of different risks posed by these models on tasks such as natural language inference (NLI), is much needed. In this paper, we define and formalize two distinct types of risk: decision risk and composite risk. We also propose a risk-centric evaluation framework, and four novel metrics, for assessing LLMs on these risks in both in-domain and out-of-domain settings. Finally, we propose a risk-adjusted calibration method called DwD for helping LLMs minimize these risks in an overall NLI architecture. Detailed experiments, using four NLI benchmarks, three baselines and two LLMs, including ChatGPT, show both the practical utility of the evaluation framework, and the efficacy of DwD in reducing decision and composite risk. For instance, when using DwD, an underlying LLM is able to address an extra 20.1% of low-risk inference tasks (but which the LLM erroneously deems high-risk without risk adjustment) and skip a further 19.8% of high-risk tasks, which would have been answered incorrectly.
In the burgeoning field of artificial intelligence (AI), the unprecedented progress of large language models (LLMs) in natural language processing (NLP) offers an opportunity to revisit the entire approach of traditional metrics of machine intelligence, both in form and content. As the realm of machine cognitive evaluation has already reached Imitation, the next step is an efficient Language Acquisition and Understanding. Our paper proposes a paradigm shift from the established Turing Test towards an all-embracing framework that hinges on language acquisition, taking inspiration from the recent advancements in LLMs. The present contribution is deeply tributary of the excellent work from various disciplines, point out the need to keep interdisciplinary bridges open, and delineates a more robust and sustainable approach.
Knowledge plays a critical role in artificial intelligence. Recently, the extensive success of pre-trained language models (PLMs) has raised significant attention about how knowledge can be acquired, maintained, updated and used by language models. Despite the enormous amount of related studies, there still lacks a unified view of how knowledge circulates within language models throughout the learning, tuning, and application processes, which may prevent us from further understanding the connections between current progress or realizing existing limitations. In this survey, we revisit PLMs as knowledge-based systems by dividing the life circle of knowledge in PLMs into five critical periods, and investigating how knowledge circulates when it is built, maintained and used. To this end, we systematically review existing studies of each period of the knowledge life cycle, summarize the main challenges and current limitations, and discuss future directions.
In pace with developments in the research field of artificial intelligence, knowledge graphs (KGs) have attracted a surge of interest from both academia and industry. As a representation of semantic relations between entities, KGs have proven to be particularly relevant for natural language processing (NLP), experiencing a rapid spread and wide adoption within recent years. Given the increasing amount of research work in this area, several KG-related approaches have been surveyed in the NLP research community. However, a comprehensive study that categorizes established topics and reviews the maturity of individual research streams remains absent to this day. Contributing to closing this gap, we systematically analyzed 507 papers from the literature on KGs in NLP. Our survey encompasses a multifaceted review of tasks, research types, and contributions. As a result, we present a structured overview of the research landscape, provide a taxonomy of tasks, summarize our findings, and highlight directions for future work.