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This paper presents an algorithm for the preprocessing of observation data aimed at improving the robustness of orbit determination tools. Two objectives are fulfilled: obtain a refined solution to the initial orbit determination problem and detect possible outliers in the processed measurements. The uncertainty on the initial estimate is propagated forward in time and progressively reduced by exploiting sensor data available in said propagation window. Differential algebra techniques and a novel automatic domain splitting algorithm for second-order Taylor expansions are used to efficiently propagate uncertainties over time. A multifidelity approach is employed to minimize the computational effort while retaining the accuracy of the propagated estimate. At each observation epoch, a polynomial map is obtained by projecting the propagated states onto the observable space. Domains that do no overlap with the actual measurement are pruned thus reducing the uncertainty to be further propagated. Measurement outliers are also detected in this step. The refined estimate and retained observations are then used to improve the robustness of batch orbit determination tools. The effectiveness of the algorithm is demonstrated for a geostationary transfer orbit object using synthetic and real observation data from the TAROT network.

We provide practical, efficient, and nonparametric methods for auditing the fairness of deployed classification and regression models. Whereas previous work relies on a fixed-sample size, our methods are sequential and allow for the continuous monitoring of incoming data, making them highly amenable to tracking the fairness of real-world systems. We also allow the data to be collected by a probabilistic policy as opposed to sampled uniformly from the population. This enables auditing to be conducted on data gathered for another purpose. Moreover, this policy may change over time and different policies may be used on different subpopulations. Finally, our methods can handle distribution shift resulting from either changes to the model or changes in the underlying population. Our approach is based on recent progress in anytime-valid inference and game-theoretic statistics-the "testing by betting" framework in particular. These connections ensure that our methods are interpretable, fast, and easy to implement. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on three benchmark fairness datasets.

Despite the promise of Lipschitz-based methods for provably-robust deep learning with deterministic guarantees, current state-of-the-art results are limited to feed-forward Convolutional Networks (ConvNets) on low-dimensional data, such as CIFAR-10. This paper investigates strategies for expanding certifiably robust training to larger, deeper models. A key challenge in certifying deep networks is efficient calculation of the Lipschitz bound for residual blocks found in ResNet and ViT architectures. We show that fast ways of bounding the Lipschitz constant for conventional ResNets are loose, and show how to address this by designing a new residual block, leading to the \emph{Linear ResNet} (LiResNet) architecture. We then introduce \emph{Efficient Margin MAximization} (EMMA), a loss function that stabilizes robust training by simultaneously penalizing worst-case adversarial examples from \emph{all} classes. Together, these contributions yield new \emph{state-of-the-art} robust accuracy on CIFAR-10/100 and Tiny-ImageNet under $\ell_2$ perturbations. Moreover, for the first time, we are able to scale up fast deterministic robustness guarantees to ImageNet, demonstrating that this approach to robust learning can be applied to real-world applications. We release our code on Github: \url{//github.com/klasleino/gloro}.

In unsupervised causal representation learning for sequential data with time-delayed latent causal influences, strong identifiability results for the disentanglement of causally-related latent variables have been established in stationary settings by leveraging temporal structure. However, in nonstationary setting, existing work only partially addressed the problem by either utilizing observed auxiliary variables (e.g., class labels and/or domain indexes) as side information or assuming simplified latent causal dynamics. Both constrain the method to a limited range of scenarios. In this study, we further explored the Markov Assumption under time-delayed causally related process in nonstationary setting and showed that under mild conditions, the independent latent components can be recovered from their nonlinear mixture up to a permutation and a component-wise transformation, without the observation of auxiliary variables. We then introduce NCTRL, a principled estimation framework, to reconstruct time-delayed latent causal variables and identify their relations from measured sequential data only. Empirical evaluations demonstrated the reliable identification of time-delayed latent causal influences, with our methodology substantially outperforming existing baselines that fail to exploit the nonstationarity adequately and then, consequently, cannot distinguish distribution shifts.

This paper studies the design of optimal proper scoring rules when the principal has partial knowledge of an agent's signal distribution. Recent work characterizes the proper scoring rules that maximize the increase of an agent's payoff when the agent chooses to access a costly signal to refine a posterior belief from her prior prediction, under the assumption that the agent's signal distribution is fully known to the principal. In our setting, the principal only knows about a set of distributions where the agent's signal distribution belongs. We formulate the scoring rule design problem as a max-min optimization that maximizes the worst-case increase in payoff across the set of distributions. We propose an efficient algorithm to compute an optimal scoring rule when the set of distributions is finite, and devise a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme that accommodates various infinite sets of distributions. We further remark that widely used scoring rules, such as the quadratic and log rules, as well as previously identified optimal scoring rules under full knowledge, can be far from optimal in our partial knowledge settings.

In the field of image processing, applying intricate semantic modifications within existing images remains an enduring challenge. This paper introduces a pioneering framework that integrates viewpoint information to enhance the control of image editing tasks. By surveying existing object editing methodologies, we distill three essential criteria, consistency, controllability, and harmony, that should be met for an image editing method. In contrast to previous approaches, our method takes the lead in satisfying all three requirements for addressing the challenge of image synthesis. Through comprehensive experiments, encompassing both quantitative assessments and qualitative comparisons with contemporary state-of-the-art methods, we present compelling evidence of our framework's superior performance across multiple dimensions. This work establishes a promising avenue for advancing image synthesis techniques and empowering precise object modifications while preserving the visual coherence of the entire composition.

We introduce a suite of new particle-based algorithms for sampling on constrained domains which are entirely learning rate free. Our approach leverages coin betting ideas from convex optimisation, and the viewpoint of constrained sampling as a mirrored optimisation problem on the space of probability measures. Based on this viewpoint, we also introduce a unifying framework for several existing constrained sampling algorithms, including mirrored Langevin dynamics and mirrored Stein variational gradient descent. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithms on a range of numerical examples, including sampling from targets on the simplex, sampling with fairness constraints, and constrained sampling problems in post-selection inference. Our results indicate that our algorithms achieve competitive performance with existing constrained sampling methods, without the need to tune any hyperparameters.

Humans perceive the world by concurrently processing and fusing high-dimensional inputs from multiple modalities such as vision and audio. Machine perception models, in stark contrast, are typically modality-specific and optimised for unimodal benchmarks, and hence late-stage fusion of final representations or predictions from each modality (`late-fusion') is still a dominant paradigm for multimodal video classification. Instead, we introduce a novel transformer based architecture that uses `fusion bottlenecks' for modality fusion at multiple layers. Compared to traditional pairwise self-attention, our model forces information between different modalities to pass through a small number of bottleneck latents, requiring the model to collate and condense the most relevant information in each modality and only share what is necessary. We find that such a strategy improves fusion performance, at the same time reducing computational cost. We conduct thorough ablation studies, and achieve state-of-the-art results on multiple audio-visual classification benchmarks including Audioset, Epic-Kitchens and VGGSound. All code and models will be released.

Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.