We consider the online linear optimization problem, where at every step the algorithm plays a point $x_t$ in the unit ball, and suffers loss $\langle c_t, x_t\rangle$ for some cost vector $c_t$ that is then revealed to the algorithm. Recent work showed that if an algorithm receives a hint $h_t$ that has non-trivial correlation with $c_t$ before it plays $x_t$, then it can achieve a regret guarantee of $O(\log T)$, improving on the bound of $\Theta(\sqrt{T})$ in the standard setting. In this work, we study the question of whether an algorithm really requires a hint at every time step. Somewhat surprisingly, we show that an algorithm can obtain $O(\log T)$ regret with just $O(\sqrt{T})$ hints under a natural query model; in contrast, we also show that $o(\sqrt{T})$ hints cannot guarantee better than $\Omega(\sqrt{T})$ regret. We give two applications of our result, to the well-studied setting of optimistic regret bounds and to the problem of online learning with abstention.
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We consider a class of statistical estimation problems in which we are given a random data matrix ${\boldsymbol X}\in {\mathbb R}^{n\times d}$ (and possibly some labels ${\boldsymbol y}\in{\mathbb R}^n$) and would like to estimate a coefficient vector ${\boldsymbol \theta}\in{\mathbb R}^d$ (or possibly a constant number of such vectors). Special cases include low-rank matrix estimation and regularized estimation in generalized linear models (e.g., sparse regression). First order methods proceed by iteratively multiplying current estimates by ${\boldsymbol X}$ or its transpose. Examples include gradient descent or its accelerated variants. Celentano, Montanari, Wu proved that for any constant number of iterations (matrix vector multiplications), the optimal first order algorithm is a specific approximate message passing algorithm (known as `Bayes AMP'). The error of this estimator can be characterized in the high-dimensional asymptotics $n,d\to\infty$, $n/d\to\delta$, and provides a lower bound to the estimation error of any first order algorithm. Here we present a simpler proof of the same result, and generalize it to broader classes of data distributions and of first order algorithms, including algorithms with non-separable nonlinearities. Most importantly, the new proof technique does not require to construct an equivalent tree-structured estimation problem, and is therefore susceptible of a broader range of applications.
In this paper, we investigate the question: Given a small number of datapoints, for example N = 30, how tight can PAC-Bayes and test set bounds be made? For such small datasets, test set bounds adversely affect generalisation performance by withholding data from the training procedure. In this setting, PAC-Bayes bounds are especially attractive, due to their ability to use all the data to simultaneously learn a posterior and bound its generalisation risk. We focus on the case of i.i.d. data with a bounded loss and consider the generic PAC-Bayes theorem of Germain et al. While their theorem is known to recover many existing PAC-Bayes bounds, it is unclear what the tightest bound derivable from their framework is. For a fixed learning algorithm and dataset, we show that the tightest possible bound coincides with a bound considered by Catoni; and, in the more natural case of distributions over datasets, we establish a lower bound on the best bound achievable in expectation. Interestingly, this lower bound recovers the Chernoff test set bound if the posterior is equal to the prior. Moreover, to illustrate how tight these bounds can be, we study synthetic one-dimensional classification tasks in which it is feasible to meta-learn both the prior and the form of the bound to numerically optimise for the tightest bounds possible. We find that in this simple, controlled scenario, PAC-Bayes bounds are competitive with comparable, commonly used Chernoff test set bounds. However, the sharpest test set bounds still lead to better guarantees on the generalisation error than the PAC-Bayes bounds we consider.
Tangent and normal cones play an important role in constrained optimization to describe admissible search directions and, in particular, to formulate optimality conditions. They notably appear in various recent algorithms for both smooth and nonsmooth low-rank optimization where the feasible set is the set $\mathbb{R}_{\leq r}^{m \times n}$ of all $m \times n$ real matrices of rank at most $r$. In this paper, motivated by the convergence analysis of such algorithms, we study, by computing inner and outer limits, the continuity of the correspondence that maps each $X \in \mathbb{R}_{\leq r}^{m \times n}$ to the tangent cone to $\mathbb{R}_{\leq r}^{m \times n}$ at $X$. We also deduce results about the continuity of the corresponding normal cone correspondence. Finally, we show that our results include as a particular case the $a$-regularity of the Whitney stratification of $\mathbb{R}_{\leq r}^{m \times n}$ following from the fact that this set is a real algebraic variety, called the real determinantal variety.
Learning a graph topology to reveal the underlying relationship between data entities plays an important role in various machine learning and data analysis tasks. Under the assumption that structured data vary smoothly over a graph, the problem can be formulated as a regularised convex optimisation over a positive semidefinite cone and solved by iterative algorithms. Classic methods require an explicit convex function to reflect generic topological priors, e.g. the $\ell_1$ penalty for enforcing sparsity, which limits the flexibility and expressiveness in learning rich topological structures. We propose to learn a mapping from node data to the graph structure based on the idea of learning to optimise (L2O). Specifically, our model first unrolls an iterative primal-dual splitting algorithm into a neural network. The key structural proximal projection is replaced with a variational autoencoder that refines the estimated graph with enhanced topological properties. The model is trained in an end-to-end fashion with pairs of node data and graph samples. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that our model is more efficient than classic iterative algorithms in learning a graph with specific topological properties.
Existing work in counterfactual Learning to Rank (LTR) has focussed on optimizing feature-based models that predict the optimal ranking based on document features. LTR methods based on bandit algorithms often optimize tabular models that memorize the optimal ranking per query. These types of model have their own advantages and disadvantages. Feature-based models provide very robust performance across many queries, including those previously unseen, however, the available features often limit the rankings the model can predict. In contrast, tabular models can converge on any possible ranking through memorization. However, memorization is extremely prone to noise, which makes tabular models reliable only when large numbers of user interactions are available. Can we develop a robust counterfactual LTR method that pursues memorization-based optimization whenever it is safe to do? We introduce the Generalization and Specialization (GENSPEC) algorithm, a robust feature-based counterfactual LTR method that pursues per-query memorization when it is safe to do so. GENSPEC optimizes a single feature-based model for generalization: robust performance across all queries, and many tabular models for specialization: each optimized for high performance on a single query. GENSPEC uses novel relative high-confidence bounds to choose which model to deploy per query. By doing so, GENSPEC enjoys the high performance of successfully specialized tabular models with the robustness of a generalized feature-based model. Our results show that GENSPEC leads to optimal performance on queries with sufficient click data, while having robust behavior on queries with little or noisy data.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
We consider the exploration-exploitation trade-off in reinforcement learning and we show that an agent imbued with a risk-seeking utility function is able to explore efficiently, as measured by regret. The parameter that controls how risk-seeking the agent is can be optimized exactly, or annealed according to a schedule. We call the resulting algorithm K-learning and show that the corresponding K-values are optimistic for the expected Q-values at each state-action pair. The K-values induce a natural Boltzmann exploration policy for which the `temperature' parameter is equal to the risk-seeking parameter. This policy achieves an expected regret bound of $\tilde O(L^{3/2} \sqrt{S A T})$, where $L$ is the time horizon, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, and $T$ is the total number of elapsed time-steps. This bound is only a factor of $L$ larger than the established lower bound. K-learning can be interpreted as mirror descent in the policy space, and it is similar to other well-known methods in the literature, including Q-learning, soft-Q-learning, and maximum entropy policy gradient, and is closely related to optimism and count based exploration methods. K-learning is simple to implement, as it only requires adding a bonus to the reward at each state-action and then solving a Bellman equation. We conclude with a numerical example demonstrating that K-learning is competitive with other state-of-the-art algorithms in practice.
This work considers the problem of provably optimal reinforcement learning for episodic finite horizon MDPs, i.e. how an agent learns to maximize his/her long term reward in an uncertain environment. The main contribution is in providing a novel algorithm --- Variance-reduced Upper Confidence Q-learning (vUCQ) --- which enjoys a regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{HSAT} + H^5SA)$, where the $T$ is the number of time steps the agent acts in the MDP, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, and $H$ is the (episodic) horizon time. This is the first regret bound that is both sub-linear in the model size and asymptotically optimal. The algorithm is sub-linear in that the time to achieve $\epsilon$-average regret for any constant $\epsilon$ is $O(SA)$, which is a number of samples that is far less than that required to learn any non-trivial estimate of the transition model (the transition model is specified by $O(S^2A)$ parameters). The importance of sub-linear algorithms is largely the motivation for algorithms such as $Q$-learning and other "model free" approaches. vUCQ algorithm also enjoys minimax optimal regret in the long run, matching the $\Omega(\sqrt{HSAT})$ lower bound. Variance-reduced Upper Confidence Q-learning (vUCQ) is a successive refinement method in which the algorithm reduces the variance in $Q$-value estimates and couples this estimation scheme with an upper confidence based algorithm. Technically, the coupling of both of these techniques is what leads to the algorithm enjoying both the sub-linear regret property and the asymptotically optimal regret.
This paper proposes a Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithm to synthesize policies for a Markov Decision Process (MDP), such that a linear time property is satisfied. We convert the property into a Limit Deterministic Buchi Automaton (LDBA), then construct a product MDP between the automaton and the original MDP. A reward function is then assigned to the states of the product automaton, according to accepting conditions of the LDBA. With this reward function, our algorithm synthesizes a policy that satisfies the linear time property: as such, the policy synthesis procedure is "constrained" by the given specification. Additionally, we show that the RL procedure sets up an online value iteration method to calculate the maximum probability of satisfying the given property, at any given state of the MDP - a convergence proof for the procedure is provided. Finally, the performance of the algorithm is evaluated via a set of numerical examples. We observe an improvement of one order of magnitude in the number of iterations required for the synthesis compared to existing approaches.
We consider the task of learning the parameters of a {\em single} component of a mixture model, for the case when we are given {\em side information} about that component, we call this the "search problem" in mixture models. We would like to solve this with computational and sample complexity lower than solving the overall original problem, where one learns parameters of all components. Our main contributions are the development of a simple but general model for the notion of side information, and a corresponding simple matrix-based algorithm for solving the search problem in this general setting. We then specialize this model and algorithm to four common scenarios: Gaussian mixture models, LDA topic models, subspace clustering, and mixed linear regression. For each one of these we show that if (and only if) the side information is informative, we obtain parameter estimates with greater accuracy, and also improved computation complexity than existing moment based mixture model algorithms (e.g. tensor methods). We also illustrate several natural ways one can obtain such side information, for specific problem instances. Our experiments on real data sets (NY Times, Yelp, BSDS500) further demonstrate the practicality of our algorithms showing significant improvement in runtime and accuracy.
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