Simulation-based inference enables learning the parameters of a model even when its likelihood cannot be computed in practice. One class of methods uses data simulated with different parameters to infer an amortized estimator for the likelihood-to-evidence ratio, or equivalently the posterior function. We show that this approach can be formulated in terms of mutual information maximization between model parameters and simulated data. We use this equivalence to reinterpret existing approaches for amortized inference and propose two new methods that rely on lower bounds of the mutual information. We apply our framework to the inference of parameters of stochastic processes and chaotic dynamical systems from sampled trajectories, using artificial neural networks for posterior prediction. Our approach provides a unified framework that leverages the power of mutual information estimators for inference.
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Injecting gaussian noise into training features is well known to have regularization properties. This paper considers noise injections to numeric or categoric tabular features as passed to inference, which translates inference to a non-deterministic outcome and may have relevance to fairness considerations, adversarial example protection, or other use cases benefiting from non-determinism. We offer the Automunge library for tabular preprocessing as a resource for the practice, which includes options to integrate random sampling or entropy seeding with the support of quantum circuits for an improved randomness profile in comparison to pseudo random number generators. Benchmarking shows that neural networks may demonstrate an improved performance when a known noise profile is mitigated with corresponding injections to both training and inference, and that gradient boosting appears to be robust to a mild noise profile in inference, suggesting that stochastic perturbations could be integrated into existing data pipelines for prior trained gradient boosting models.
We study the computational complexity of two hard problems on determinantal point processes (DPPs). One is maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference, i.e., to find a principal submatrix having the maximum determinant. The other is probabilistic inference on exponentiated DPPs (E-DPPs), which can sharpen or weaken the diversity preference of DPPs with an exponent parameter $p$. We present several complexity-theoretic hardness results that explain the difficulty in approximating MAP inference and the normalizing constant for E-DPPs. We first prove that unconstrained MAP inference for an $n \times n$ matrix is $\textsf{NP}$-hard to approximate within a factor of $2^{\beta n}$, where $\beta = 10^{-10^{13}} $. This result improves upon the best-known inapproximability factor of $(\frac{9}{8}-\epsilon)$, and rules out the existence of any polynomial-factor approximation algorithm assuming $\textsf{P} \neq \textsf{NP}$. We then show that log-determinant maximization is $\textsf{NP}$-hard to approximate within a factor of $\frac{5}{4}$ for the unconstrained case and within a factor of $1+10^{-10^{13}}$ for the size-constrained monotone case. In particular, log-determinant maximization does not admit a polynomial-time approximation scheme unless $\textsf{P} = \textsf{NP}$. As a corollary of the first result, we demonstrate that the normalizing constant for E-DPPs of any (fixed) constant exponent $p \geq \beta^{-1} = 10^{10^{13}}$ is $\textsf{NP}$-hard to approximate within a factor of $2^{\beta pn}$, which is in contrast to the case of $p \leq 1$ admitting a fully polynomial-time randomized approximation scheme.
We analyze the dynamics of a random sequential message passing algorithm for approximate inference with large Gaussian latent variable models in a student-teacher scenario. To model nontrivial dependencies between the latent variables, we assume random covariance matrices drawn from rotation invariant ensembles. Moreover, we consider a model mismatching setting, where the teacher model and the one used by the student may be different. By means of dynamical functional approach, we obtain exact dynamical mean-field equations characterizing the dynamics of the inference algorithm. We also derive a range of model parameters for which the sequential algorithm does not converge. The boundary of this parameter range coincides with the de Almeida Thouless (AT) stability condition of the replica symmetric ansatz for the static probabilistic model.
Predictive models are effective in reasoning about human motion, a crucial part that affects safety and efficiency in human-robot interaction. However, robots often lack access to certain key parameters of such models, for example, human's objectives, their level of distraction, and willingness to cooperate. Dual control theory addresses this challenge by treating unknown parameters as stochastic hidden states and identifying their values using information gathered during control of the robot. Despite its ability to optimally and automatically trade off exploration and exploitation, dual control is computationally intractable for general human-in-the-loop motion planning, mainly due to nested trajectory optimization and human intent prediction. In this paper, we present a novel algorithmic approach to enable active uncertainty learning for human-in-the-loop motion planning based on the implicit dual control paradigm. Our approach relies on sampling-based approximation of stochastic dynamic programming, leading to a model predictive control problem that can be readily solved by real-time gradient-based optimization methods. The resulting policy is shown to preserve the dual control effect for generic human predictive models with both continuous and categorical uncertainty. The efficacy of our approach is demonstrated with simulated driving examples.
Active inference is a unifying theory for perception and action resting upon the idea that the brain maintains an internal model of the world by minimizing free energy. From a behavioral perspective, active inference agents can be seen as self-evidencing beings that act to fulfill their optimistic predictions, namely preferred outcomes or goals. In contrast, reinforcement learning requires human-designed rewards to accomplish any desired outcome. Although active inference could provide a more natural self-supervised objective for control, its applicability has been limited because of the shortcomings in scaling the approach to complex environments. In this work, we propose a contrastive objective for active inference that strongly reduces the computational burden in learning the agent's generative model and planning future actions. Our method performs notably better than likelihood-based active inference in image-based tasks, while also being computationally cheaper and easier to train. We compare to reinforcement learning agents that have access to human-designed reward functions, showing that our approach closely matches their performance. Finally, we also show that contrastive methods perform significantly better in the case of distractors in the environment and that our method is able to generalize goals to variations in the background.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
Influence maximization is the task of selecting a small number of seed nodes in a social network to maximize the spread of the influence from these seeds, and it has been widely investigated in the past two decades. In the canonical setting, the whole social network as well as its diffusion parameters is given as input. In this paper, we consider the more realistic sampling setting where the network is unknown and we only have a set of passively observed cascades that record the set of activated nodes at each diffusion step. We study the task of influence maximization from these cascade samples (IMS), and present constant approximation algorithms for this task under mild conditions on the seed set distribution. To achieve the optimization goal, we also provide a novel solution to the network inference problem, that is, learning diffusion parameters and the network structure from the cascade data. Comparing with prior solutions, our network inference algorithm requires weaker assumptions and does not rely on maximum-likelihood estimation and convex programming. Our IMS algorithms enhance the learning-and-then-optimization approach by allowing a constant approximation ratio even when the diffusion parameters are hard to learn, and we do not need any assumption related to the network structure or diffusion parameters.
To learn intrinsic low-dimensional structures from high-dimensional data that most discriminate between classes, we propose the principle of Maximal Coding Rate Reduction ($\text{MCR}^2$), an information-theoretic measure that maximizes the coding rate difference between the whole dataset and the sum of each individual class. We clarify its relationships with most existing frameworks such as cross-entropy, information bottleneck, information gain, contractive and contrastive learning, and provide theoretical guarantees for learning diverse and discriminative features. The coding rate can be accurately computed from finite samples of degenerate subspace-like distributions and can learn intrinsic representations in supervised, self-supervised, and unsupervised settings in a unified manner. Empirically, the representations learned using this principle alone are significantly more robust to label corruptions in classification than those using cross-entropy, and can lead to state-of-the-art results in clustering mixed data from self-learned invariant features.
Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.
In this paper, a novel image moments based model for shape estimation and tracking of an object moving with a complex trajectory is presented. The camera is assumed to be stationary looking at a moving object. Point features inside the object are sampled as measurements. An ellipsoidal approximation of the shape is assumed as a primitive shape. The shape of an ellipse is estimated using a combination of image moments. Dynamic model of image moments when the object moves under the constant velocity or coordinated turn motion model is derived as a function for the shape estimation of the object. An Unscented Kalman Filter-Interacting Multiple Model (UKF-IMM) filter algorithm is applied to estimate the shape of the object (approximated as an ellipse) and track its position and velocity. A likelihood function based on average log-likelihood is derived for the IMM filter. Simulation results of the proposed UKF-IMM algorithm with the image moments based models are presented that show the estimations of the shape of the object moving in complex trajectories. Comparison results, using intersection over union (IOU), and position and velocity root mean square errors (RMSE) as metrics, with a benchmark algorithm from literature are presented. Results on real image data captured from the quadcopter are also presented.
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