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Machine learning driven medical image segmentation has become standard in medical image analysis. However, deep learning models are prone to overconfident predictions. This has led to a renewed focus on calibrated predictions in the medical imaging and broader machine learning communities. Calibrated predictions are estimates of the probability of a label that correspond to the true expected value of the label conditioned on the confidence. Such calibrated predictions have utility in a range of medical imaging applications, including surgical planning under uncertainty and active learning systems. At the same time it is often an accurate volume measurement that is of real importance for many medical applications. This work investigates the relationship between model calibration and volume estimation. We demonstrate both mathematically and empirically that if the predictor is calibrated per image, we can obtain the correct volume by taking an expectation of the probability scores per pixel/voxel of the image. Furthermore, we show that convex combinations of calibrated classifiers preserve volume estimation, but do not preserve calibration. Therefore, we conclude that having a calibrated predictor is a sufficient, but not necessary condition for obtaining an unbiased estimate of the volume. We validate our theoretical findings empirically on a collection of 18 different (calibrated) training strategies on the tasks of glioma volume estimation on BraTS 2018, and ischemic stroke lesion volume estimation on ISLES 2018 datasets.

We consider the problem of efficiently solving large-scale linear least squares problems that have one or more linear constraints that must be satisfied exactly. Whilst some classical approaches are theoretically well founded, they can face difficulties when the matrix of constraints contains dense rows or if an algorithmic transformation used in the solution process results in a modified problem that is much denser than the original one. To address this, we propose modifications and new ideas, with an emphasis on requiring the constraints are satisfied with a small residual. We examine combining the null-space method with our recently developed algorithm for computing a null space basis matrix for a "wide" matrix. We further show that a direct elimination approach enhanced by careful pivoting can be effective in transforming the problem to an unconstrained sparse-dense least squares problem that can be solved with existing direct or iterative methods. We also present a number of solution variants that employ an augmented system formulation, which can be attractive when solving a sequence of related problems. Numerical experiments using problems coming from practical applications are used throughout to demonstrate the effectiveness of the different approaches.

With the overwhelming popularity of Knowledge Graphs (KGs), researchers have poured attention to link prediction to fill in missing facts for a long time. However, they mainly focus on link prediction on binary relational data, where facts are usually represented as triples in the form of (head entity, relation, tail entity). In practice, n-ary relational facts are also ubiquitous. When encountering such facts, existing studies usually decompose them into triples by introducing a multitude of auxiliary virtual entities and additional triples. These conversions result in the complexity of carrying out link prediction on n-ary relational data. It has even proven that they may cause loss of structure information. To overcome these problems, in this paper, we represent each n-ary relational fact as a set of its role and role-value pairs. We then propose a method called NaLP to conduct link prediction on n-ary relational data, which explicitly models the relatedness of all the role and role-value pairs in an n-ary relational fact. We further extend NaLP by introducing type constraints of roles and role-values without any external type-specific supervision, and proposing a more reasonable negative sampling mechanism. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and merits of the proposed methods.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Modern online advertising systems inevitably rely on personalization methods, such as click-through rate (CTR) prediction. Recent progress in CTR prediction enjoys the rich representation capabilities of deep learning and achieves great success in large-scale industrial applications. However, these methods can suffer from lack of exploration. Another line of prior work addresses the exploration-exploitation trade-off problem with contextual bandit methods, which are less studied in the industry recently due to the difficulty in extending their flexibility with deep models. In this paper, we propose a novel Deep Uncertainty-Aware Learning (DUAL) method to learn deep CTR models based on Gaussian processes, which can provide efficient uncertainty estimations along with the CTR predictions while maintaining the flexibility of deep neural networks. By linking the ability to estimate predictive uncertainties of DUAL to well-known bandit algorithms, we further present DUAL-based Ad-ranking strategies to boost up long-term utilities such as the social welfare in advertising systems. Experimental results on several public datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods. Remarkably, an online A/B test deployed in the Alibaba display advertising platform shows an $8.2\%$ social welfare improvement and an $8.0\%$ revenue lift.

Clustering is a fundamental task in data analysis. Recently, deep clustering, which derives inspiration primarily from deep learning approaches, achieves state-of-the-art performance and has attracted considerable attention. Current deep clustering methods usually boost the clustering results by means of the powerful representation ability of deep learning, e.g., autoencoder, suggesting that learning an effective representation for clustering is a crucial requirement. The strength of deep clustering methods is to extract the useful representations from the data itself, rather than the structure of data, which receives scarce attention in representation learning. Motivated by the great success of Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) in encoding the graph structure, we propose a Structural Deep Clustering Network (SDCN) to integrate the structural information into deep clustering. Specifically, we design a delivery operator to transfer the representations learned by autoencoder to the corresponding GCN layer, and a dual self-supervised mechanism to unify these two different deep neural architectures and guide the update of the whole model. In this way, the multiple structures of data, from low-order to high-order, are naturally combined with the multiple representations learned by autoencoder. Furthermore, we theoretically analyze the delivery operator, i.e., with the delivery operator, GCN improves the autoencoder-specific representation as a high-order graph regularization constraint and autoencoder helps alleviate the over-smoothing problem in GCN. Through comprehensive experiments, we demonstrate that our propose model can consistently perform better over the state-of-the-art techniques.

Tensor factorization has become an increasingly popular approach to knowledge graph completion(KGC), which is the task of automatically predicting missing facts in a knowledge graph. However, even with a simple model like CANDECOMP/PARAFAC(CP) tensor decomposition, KGC on existing knowledge graphs is impractical in resource-limited environments, as a large amount of memory is required to store parameters represented as 32-bit or 64-bit floating point numbers. This limitation is expected to become more stringent as existing knowledge graphs, which are already huge, keep steadily growing in scale. To reduce the memory requirement, we present a method for binarizing the parameters of the CP tensor decomposition by introducing a quantization function to the optimization problem. This method replaces floating point-valued parameters with binary ones after training, which drastically reduces the model size at run time. We investigate the trade-off between the quality and size of tensor factorization models for several KGC benchmark datasets. In our experiments, the proposed method successfully reduced the model size by more than an order of magnitude while maintaining the task performance. Moreover, a fast score computation technique can be developed with bitwise operations.

While Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have empirically produced impressive results on learning complex real-world distributions, recent work has shown that they suffer from lack of diversity or mode collapse. The theoretical work of Arora et al.~\cite{AroraGeLiMaZh17} suggests a dilemma about GANs' statistical properties: powerful discriminators cause overfitting, whereas weak discriminators cannot detect mode collapse. In contrast, we show in this paper that GANs can in principle learn distributions in Wasserstein distance (or KL-divergence in many cases) with polynomial sample complexity, if the discriminator class has strong distinguishing power against the particular generator class (instead of against all possible generators). For various generator classes such as mixture of Gaussians, exponential families, and invertible neural networks generators, we design corresponding discriminators (which are often neural nets of specific architectures) such that the Integral Probability Metric (IPM) induced by the discriminators can provably approximate the Wasserstein distance and/or KL-divergence. This implies that if the training is successful, then the learned distribution is close to the true distribution in Wasserstein distance or KL divergence, and thus cannot drop modes. Our preliminary experiments show that on synthetic datasets the test IPM is well correlated with KL divergence, indicating that the lack of diversity may be caused by the sub-optimality in optimization instead of statistical inefficiency.

Owing to the recent advances in "Big Data" modeling and prediction tasks, variational Bayesian estimation has gained popularity due to their ability to provide exact solutions to approximate posteriors. One key technique for approximate inference is stochastic variational inference (SVI). SVI poses variational inference as a stochastic optimization problem and solves it iteratively using noisy gradient estimates. It aims to handle massive data for predictive and classification tasks by applying complex Bayesian models that have observed as well as latent variables. This paper aims to decentralize it allowing parallel computation, secure learning and robustness benefits. We use Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers in a top-down setting to develop a distributed SVI algorithm such that independent learners running inference algorithms only require sharing the estimated model parameters instead of their private datasets. Our work extends the distributed SVI-ADMM algorithm that we first propose, to an ADMM-based networked SVI algorithm in which not only are the learners working distributively but they share information according to rules of a graph by which they form a network. This kind of work lies under the umbrella of `deep learning over networks' and we verify our algorithm for a topic-modeling problem for corpus of Wikipedia articles. We illustrate the results on latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) topic model in large document classification, compare performance with the centralized algorithm, and use numerical experiments to corroborate the analytical results.

Methods that learn representations of nodes in a graph play a critical role in network analysis since they enable many downstream learning tasks. We propose Graph2Gauss - an approach that can efficiently learn versatile node embeddings on large scale (attributed) graphs that show strong performance on tasks such as link prediction and node classification. Unlike most approaches that represent nodes as point vectors in a low-dimensional continuous space, we embed each node as a Gaussian distribution, allowing us to capture uncertainty about the representation. Furthermore, we propose an unsupervised method that handles inductive learning scenarios and is applicable to different types of graphs: plain/attributed, directed/undirected. By leveraging both the network structure and the associated node attributes, we are able to generalize to unseen nodes without additional training. To learn the embeddings we adopt a personalized ranking formulation w.r.t. the node distances that exploits the natural ordering of the nodes imposed by the network structure. Experiments on real world networks demonstrate the high performance of our approach, outperforming state-of-the-art network embedding methods on several different tasks. Additionally, we demonstrate the benefits of modeling uncertainty - by analyzing it we can estimate neighborhood diversity and detect the intrinsic latent dimensionality of a graph.