Visualization for machine learning (VIS4ML) research aims to help experts apply their prior knowledge to develop, understand, and improve the performance of machine learning models. In conceiving VIS4ML systems, researchers characterize the nature of human knowledge to support human-in-the-loop tasks, design interactive visualizations to make ML components interpretable and elicit knowledge, and evaluate the effectiveness of human-model interchange. We survey recent VIS4ML papers to assess the generalizability of research contributions and claims in enabling human-in-the-loop ML. Our results show potential gaps between the current scope of VIS4ML research and aspirations for its use in practice. We find that while papers motivate that VIS4ML systems are applicable beyond the specific conditions studied, conclusions are often overfitted to non-representative scenarios, are based on interactions with a small set of ML experts and well-understood datasets, fail to acknowledge crucial dependencies, and hinge on decisions that lack justification. We discuss approaches to close the gap between aspirations and research claims and suggest documentation practices to report generality constraints that better acknowledge the exploratory nature of VIS4ML research.
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Minimum Bayes Risk (MBR) decoding is a method for choosing the outputs of a machine learning system based not on the output with the highest probability, but the output with the lowest risk (expected error) among multiple candidates. It is a simple but powerful method: for an additional cost at inference time, MBR provides reliable several-point improvements across metrics for a wide variety of tasks without any additional data or training. Despite this, MBR is not frequently applied in NLP works, and knowledge of the method itself is limited. We first provide an introduction to the method and the recent literature. We show that several recent methods that do not reference MBR can be written as special cases of MBR; this reformulation provides additional theoretical justification for the performance of these methods, explaining some results that were previously only empirical. We provide theoretical and empirical results about the effectiveness of various MBR variants and make concrete recommendations for the application of MBR in NLP models, including future directions in this area.
Several task and motion planning algorithms have been proposed recently to design paths for mobile robot teams with collaborative high-level missions specified using formal languages, such as Linear Temporal Logic (LTL). However, the designed paths often lack reactivity to failures of robot capabilities (e.g., sensing, mobility, or manipulation) that can occur due to unanticipated events (e.g., human intervention or system malfunctioning) which in turn may compromise mission performance. To address this novel challenge, in this paper, we propose a new resilient mission planning algorithm for teams of heterogeneous robots with collaborative LTL missions. The robots are heterogeneous with respect to their capabilities while the mission requires applications of these skills at certain areas in the environment in a temporal/logical order. The proposed method designs paths that can adapt to unexpected failures of robot capabilities. This is accomplished by re-allocating sub-tasks to the robots based on their currently functioning skills while minimally disrupting the existing team motion plans. We provide experiments and theoretical guarantees demonstrating the efficiency and resiliency of the proposed algorithm.
Case studies are typically used to teach 'ethics', but when the content of a course is focused on formulae and proofs, a case analysis and the knowledge, skills, and abilities they require can be distracting. Moreover, case analyses are typically focused narrowly on research issues: obtaining consent, dealing with research team members, and/or research policy violations. Not all students in quantitative courses plan to become researchers, and ethical practice of mathematics, statistics, data science, and computing is an essential topic regardless of the learner's career plans. While it is incorrect to treat 'social justice' as a proxy for 'ethical practice', the topic of 'social justice' may be more interesting to both students and instructors. This paper offers concrete recommendations for integrating social justice content into quantitative courses in ways that limit the burden of new knowledge, skills, and abilities but also support reproducible and actionable assessments. Five tools can be utilized to integrate social justice into a course in a way that also meets calls to integrate 'ethics'; minimizes the burden on instructors to create and grade new materials and assignments; minimizes the burden on learners to develop the skill set to complete a case analysis; and maximizes the likelihood that the ethics content will be embedded in the learners' cognitive representation of the knowledge being taught in the quantitative course. These tools are: a. Curriculum Development Guidelines b. 7-task Statistics and Data Science Pipeline c. ASA Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice d. Stakeholder Analysis e. 6-step Ethical Reasoning paradigm This paper discusses how to use these tools in quantitative courses. The tools and frameworks offer structure, and facilitate ensuring that changes made to any course are evaluable and generate actionable assessments for learners.
Unlocking the potential of deep learning in Peak-Hour Series Forecasting (PHSF) remains a critical yet underexplored task in various domains. While state-of-the-art deep learning models excel in regular Time Series Forecasting (TSF), they struggle to achieve comparable results in PHSF. This can be attributed to the challenges posed by the high degree of non-stationarity in peak-hour series, which makes direct forecasting more difficult than standard TSF. Additionally, manually extracting the maximum value from regular forecasting results leads to suboptimal performance due to models minimizing the mean deficit. To address these issues, this paper presents Seq2Peak, a novel framework designed specifically for PHSF tasks, bridging the performance gap observed in TSF models. Seq2Peak offers two key components: the CyclicNorm pipeline to mitigate the non-stationarity issue and a simple yet effective trainable-parameter-free peak-hour decoder with a hybrid loss function that utilizes both the original series and peak-hour series as supervised signals. Extensive experimentation on publicly available time series datasets demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed framework, yielding a remarkable average relative improvement of 37.7% across four real-world datasets for both transformer- and non-transformer-based TSF models.
Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDEs) are a state-of-the-art tool for supervised learning with irregularly sampled time series (Kidger, 2020). However, no theoretical analysis of their performance has been provided yet, and it remains unclear in particular how the irregularity of the time series affects their predictions. By merging the rich theory of controlled differential equations (CDE) and Lipschitz-based measures of the complexity of deep neural nets, we take a first step towards the theoretical understanding of NCDE. Our first result is a generalization bound for this class of predictors that depends on the regularity of the time series data. In a second time, we leverage the continuity of the flow of CDEs to provide a detailed analysis of both the sampling-induced bias and the approximation bias. Regarding this last result, we show how classical approximation results on neural nets may transfer to NCDEs. Our theoretical results are validated through a series of experiments.
Mathematical reasoning is a fundamental aspect of human intelligence and is applicable in various fields, including science, engineering, finance, and everyday life. The development of artificial intelligence (AI) systems capable of solving math problems and proving theorems has garnered significant interest in the fields of machine learning and natural language processing. For example, mathematics serves as a testbed for aspects of reasoning that are challenging for powerful deep learning models, driving new algorithmic and modeling advances. On the other hand, recent advances in large-scale neural language models have opened up new benchmarks and opportunities to use deep learning for mathematical reasoning. In this survey paper, we review the key tasks, datasets, and methods at the intersection of mathematical reasoning and deep learning over the past decade. We also evaluate existing benchmarks and methods, and discuss future research directions in this domain.
In pace with developments in the research field of artificial intelligence, knowledge graphs (KGs) have attracted a surge of interest from both academia and industry. As a representation of semantic relations between entities, KGs have proven to be particularly relevant for natural language processing (NLP), experiencing a rapid spread and wide adoption within recent years. Given the increasing amount of research work in this area, several KG-related approaches have been surveyed in the NLP research community. However, a comprehensive study that categorizes established topics and reviews the maturity of individual research streams remains absent to this day. Contributing to closing this gap, we systematically analyzed 507 papers from the literature on KGs in NLP. Our survey encompasses a multifaceted review of tasks, research types, and contributions. As a result, we present a structured overview of the research landscape, provide a taxonomy of tasks, summarize our findings, and highlight directions for future work.
We introduce DeepNash, an autonomous agent capable of learning to play the imperfect information game Stratego from scratch, up to a human expert level. Stratego is one of the few iconic board games that Artificial Intelligence (AI) has not yet mastered. This popular game has an enormous game tree on the order of $10^{535}$ nodes, i.e., $10^{175}$ times larger than that of Go. It has the additional complexity of requiring decision-making under imperfect information, similar to Texas hold'em poker, which has a significantly smaller game tree (on the order of $10^{164}$ nodes). Decisions in Stratego are made over a large number of discrete actions with no obvious link between action and outcome. Episodes are long, with often hundreds of moves before a player wins, and situations in Stratego can not easily be broken down into manageably-sized sub-problems as in poker. For these reasons, Stratego has been a grand challenge for the field of AI for decades, and existing AI methods barely reach an amateur level of play. DeepNash uses a game-theoretic, model-free deep reinforcement learning method, without search, that learns to master Stratego via self-play. The Regularised Nash Dynamics (R-NaD) algorithm, a key component of DeepNash, converges to an approximate Nash equilibrium, instead of 'cycling' around it, by directly modifying the underlying multi-agent learning dynamics. DeepNash beats existing state-of-the-art AI methods in Stratego and achieved a yearly (2022) and all-time top-3 rank on the Gravon games platform, competing with human expert players.
The rapid recent progress in machine learning (ML) has raised a number of scientific questions that challenge the longstanding dogma of the field. One of the most important riddles is the good empirical generalization of overparameterized models. Overparameterized models are excessively complex with respect to the size of the training dataset, which results in them perfectly fitting (i.e., interpolating) the training data, which is usually noisy. Such interpolation of noisy data is traditionally associated with detrimental overfitting, and yet a wide range of interpolating models -- from simple linear models to deep neural networks -- have recently been observed to generalize extremely well on fresh test data. Indeed, the recently discovered double descent phenomenon has revealed that highly overparameterized models often improve over the best underparameterized model in test performance. Understanding learning in this overparameterized regime requires new theory and foundational empirical studies, even for the simplest case of the linear model. The underpinnings of this understanding have been laid in very recent analyses of overparameterized linear regression and related statistical learning tasks, which resulted in precise analytic characterizations of double descent. This paper provides a succinct overview of this emerging theory of overparameterized ML (henceforth abbreviated as TOPML) that explains these recent findings through a statistical signal processing perspective. We emphasize the unique aspects that define the TOPML research area as a subfield of modern ML theory and outline interesting open questions that remain.
Neural machine translation (NMT) is a deep learning based approach for machine translation, which yields the state-of-the-art translation performance in scenarios where large-scale parallel corpora are available. Although the high-quality and domain-specific translation is crucial in the real world, domain-specific corpora are usually scarce or nonexistent, and thus vanilla NMT performs poorly in such scenarios. Domain adaptation that leverages both out-of-domain parallel corpora as well as monolingual corpora for in-domain translation, is very important for domain-specific translation. In this paper, we give a comprehensive survey of the state-of-the-art domain adaptation techniques for NMT.
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