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Background: Platform trials can evaluate the efficacy of several treatments compared to a control. The number of treatments is not fixed, as arms may be added or removed as the trial progresses. Platform trials are more efficient than independent parallel-group trials because of using shared control groups. For arms entering the trial later, not all patients in the control group are randomised concurrently. The control group is then divided into concurrent and non-concurrent controls. Using non-concurrent controls (NCC) can improve the trial's efficiency, but can introduce bias due to time trends. Methods: We focus on a platform trial with two treatment arms and a common control arm. Assuming that the second treatment arm is added later, we assess the robustness of model-based approaches to adjust for time trends when using NCC. We consider approaches where time trends are modeled as linear or as a step function, with steps at times where arms enter or leave the trial. For trials with continuous or binary outcomes, we investigate the type 1 error (t1e) rate and power of testing the efficacy of the newly added arm under a range of scenarios. In addition to scenarios where time trends are equal across arms, we investigate settings with trends that are different or not additive in the model scale. Results: A step function model fitted on data from all arms gives increased power while controlling the t1e, as long as the time trends are equal for the different arms and additive on the model scale. This holds even if the trend's shape deviates from a step function if block randomisation is used. But if trends differ between arms or are not additive on the model scale, t1e control may be lost. Conclusion: The efficiency gained by using step function models to incorporate NCC can outweigh potential biases. However, the specifics of the trial, plausibility of different time trends, and robustness of results should be considered

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Multi-agent deep reinforcement learning has been applied to address a variety of complex problems with either discrete or continuous action spaces and achieved great success. However, most real-world environments cannot be described by only discrete action spaces or only continuous action spaces. And there are few works having ever utilized deep reinforcement learning (drl) to multi-agent problems with hybrid action spaces. Therefore, we propose a novel algorithm: Deep Multi-Agent Hybrid Soft Actor-Critic (MAHSAC) to fill this gap. This algorithm follows the centralized training but decentralized execution (CTDE) paradigm, and extend the Soft Actor-Critic algorithm (SAC) to handle hybrid action space problems in Multi-Agent environments based on maximum entropy. Our experiences are running on an easy multi-agent particle world with a continuous observation and discrete action space, along with some basic simulated physics. The experimental results show that MAHSAC has good performance in training speed, stability, and anti-interference ability. At the same time, it outperforms existing independent deep hybrid learning method in cooperative scenarios and competitive scenarios.

The millimeter wave (mmWave) band will be exploited to address the growing demand for high data rates and low latency. The higher frequencies, however, are prone to limitations on the propagation of the signal in the environment. Thus, highly directional beamforming is needed to increase the antenna gain. Another crucial problem of the mmWave frequencies is their vulnerability to blockage by physical obstacles. To this aim, we studied the problem of modeling the impact of second-order effects on mmWave channels, specifically the susceptibility of the mmWave signals to physical blockers. With respect to existing works on this topic, our project focuses on scenarios where mmWaves interact with multiple, dynamic blockers. Our open source software includes diffraction-based blockage models and interfaces directly with an open source Radio Frequency (RF) ray-tracing software.

The study of network formation is pervasive in economics, sociology, and many other fields. In this paper, we model network formation as a `choice' that is made by nodes in a network to connect to other nodes. We study these `choices' using discrete-choice models, in which an agent chooses between two or more discrete alternatives. We employ the `repeated-choice' (RC) model to study network formation. We argue that the RC model overcomes important limitations of the multinomial logit (MNL) model, which gives one framework for studying network formation, and that it is well-suited to study network formation. We also illustrate how to use the RC model to accurately study network formation using both synthetic and real-world networks. Using synthetic networks, we also compare the performance of the MNL model and the RC model. We find that the RC model estimates the data-generation process of our synthetic networks more accurately than the MNL model. We do a case study of a qualitatively interesting scenario -- the fact that new patents are more likely to cite older, more cited, and similar patents -- for which the RC model allows us to achieve interesting insights.

Cross-validation is a widely-used technique to estimate prediction error, but its behavior is complex and not fully understood. Ideally, one would like to think that cross-validation estimates the prediction error for the model at hand, fit to the training data. We prove that this is not the case for the linear model fit by ordinary least squares; rather it estimates the average prediction error of models fit on other unseen training sets drawn from the same population. We further show that this phenomenon occurs for most popular estimates of prediction error, including data splitting, bootstrapping, and Mallow's Cp. Next, the standard confidence intervals for prediction error derived from cross-validation may have coverage far below the desired level. Because each data point is used for both training and testing, there are correlations among the measured accuracies for each fold, and so the usual estimate of variance is too small. We introduce a nested cross-validation scheme to estimate this variance more accurately, and we show empirically that this modification leads to intervals with approximately correct coverage in many examples where traditional cross-validation intervals fail.

The optimal moment to start renal replacement therapy in a patient with acute kidney injury (AKI) remains a challenging problem in intensive care nephrology. Multiple randomised controlled trials have tried to answer this question, but these can, by definition, only analyse a limited number of treatment initiation strategies. In view of this, we use routinely collected observational data from the Ghent University Hospital intensive care units (ICUs) to investigate different pre-specified timing strategies for renal replacement therapy initiation based on time-updated levels of serum potassium, pH and fluid balance in critically ill patients with AKI with the aim to minimize 30-day ICU mortality. For this purpose, we apply statistical techniques for evaluating the impact of specific dynamic treatment regimes in the presence of ICU discharge as a competing event. We discuss two approaches, a non-parametric one - using an inverse probability weighted Aalen-Johansen estimator - and a semiparametric one - using dynamic-regime marginal structural models. Furthermore, we suggest an easy to implement cross-validation technique that can be used for the out-of-sample performance assessment of the optimal dynamic treatment regime. Our work illustrates the potential of data-driven medical decision support based on routinely collected observational data.

Many deep reinforcement learning algorithms rely on simple forms of exploration, such as the additive action-noise often used in continuous control domains. Typically, the scaling factor of this action noise is chosen as a hyper-parameter and kept constant during training. In this paper, we analyze how the learned policy is impacted by the noise type, scale, and reducing of the scaling factor over time. We consider the two most prominent types of action-noise: Gaussian and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise, and perform a vast experimental campaign by systematically varying the noise type and scale parameter, and by measuring variables of interest like the expected return of the policy and the state space coverage during exploration. For the latter, we propose a novel state-space coverage measure $\operatorname{X}_{\mathcal{U}\text{rel}}$ that is more robust to boundary artifacts than previously proposed measures. Larger noise scales generally increase state space coverage. However, we found that increasing the space coverage using a larger noise scale is often not beneficial. On the contrary, reducing the noise-scale over the training process reduces the variance and generally improves the learning performance. We conclude that the best noise-type and scale are environment dependent, and based on our observations, derive heuristic rules for guiding the choice of the action noise as a starting point for further optimization.

Accurate and early prediction of a disease allows to plan and improve a patient's quality of future life. During pandemic situations, the medical decision becomes a speed challenge in which physicians have to act fast to diagnose and predict the risk of the severity of the disease, moreover this is also of high priority for neurodegenerative diseases like Parkinson's disease. Machine Learning (ML) models with Features Selection (FS) techniques can be applied to help physicians to quickly diagnose a disease. FS optimally subset features that improve a model performance and help reduce the number of needed tests for a patient and hence speeding up the diagnosis. This study shows the result of three Feature Selection (FS) techniques pre-applied to a classifier algorithm, Logistic Regression, on non-invasive test results data. The three FS are Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) as filter based method, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) as embedded method and Sequential Feature Selection (SFS) as wrapper method. The outcome shows that FS technique can help to build an efficient and effective classifier, hence improving the performance of the classifier while reducing the computation time.

This paper focuses on improving the resource allocation algorithm in terms of packet delivery ratio (PDR), i.e., the number of successfully received packets sent by end devices (EDs) in a long-range wide-area network (LoRaWAN). Setting the transmission parameters significantly affects the PDR. Employing reinforcement learning (RL), we propose a resource allocation algorithm that enables the EDs to configure their transmission parameters in a distributed manner. We model the resource allocation problem as a multi-armed bandit (MAB) and then address it by proposing a two-phase algorithm named MIX-MAB, which consists of the exponential weights for exploration and exploitation (EXP3) and successive elimination (SE) algorithms. We evaluate the MIX-MAB performance through simulation results and compare it with other existing approaches. Numerical results show that the proposed solution performs better than the existing schemes in terms of convergence time and PDR.

We identify the algebraic structure of the material histories generated by concurrent processes. Specifically, we extend existing categorical theories of resource convertibility to capture concurrent interaction. Our formalism admits an intuitive graphical presentation via string diagrams for proarrow equipments. We also consider certain induced categories of resource transducers, which are of independent interest due to their unusual structure.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.

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