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Computational models are widely used in decision support for energy system operation, planning and policy. A system of models is often employed, where model inputs themselves arise from other computer models, with each model being developed by different teams of experts. Gaussian Process emulators can be used to approximate the behaviour of complex, computationally intensive models; this type of emulator both provides the predictions and quantifies uncertainty about the predicted model output. This paper presents a computationally efficient framework for propagating uncertainty within a network of models with high-dimensional outputs used for energy planning. We present a case study from a UK county council, that is interested in considering low carbon technology options to transform its infrastructure. The system model employed for this case study is simple, however, the framework can be applied to larger networks of more complex models.

Named entity recognition (NER) is an essential task in natural language processing, but the internal mechanism of most NER models is a black box for users. In some high-stake decision-making areas, improving the interpretability of an NER method is crucial but challenging. In this paper, based on the existing Deterministic Talmudic Public announcement logic (TPK) model, we propose a novel binary tree model (called BTPK) and apply it to two widely used Bi-RNNs to obtain BTPK-based interpretable ones. Then, we design a counterfactual verification module to verify the BTPK-based learning method. Experimental results on three public datasets show that the BTPK-based learning outperform two classical Bi-RNNs with self-attention, especially on small, simple data and relatively large, complex data. Moreover, the counterfactual verification demonstrates that the explanations provided by the BTPK-based learning method are reasonable and accurate in NER tasks. Besides, the logical reasoning based on BTPK shows how Bi-RNNs handle NER tasks, with different distance of public announcements on long and complex sequences.

We present a two-step hybrid reinforcement learning (RL) policy that is designed to generate interpretable and robust hierarchical policies on the RL problem with graph-based input. Unlike prior deep reinforcement learning policies parameterized by an end-to-end black-box graph neural network, our approach disentangles the decision-making process into two steps. The first step is a simplified classification problem that maps the graph input to an action group where all actions share a similar semantic meaning. The second step implements a sophisticated rule-miner that conducts explicit one-hop reasoning over the graph and identifies decisive edges in the graph input without the necessity of heavy domain knowledge. This two-step hybrid policy presents human-friendly interpretations and achieves better performance in terms of generalization and robustness. Extensive experimental studies on four levels of complex text-based games have demonstrated the superiority of the proposed method compared to the state-of-the-art.

This book develops an effective theory approach to understanding deep neural networks of practical relevance. Beginning from a first-principles component-level picture of networks, we explain how to determine an accurate description of the output of trained networks by solving layer-to-layer iteration equations and nonlinear learning dynamics. A main result is that the predictions of networks are described by nearly-Gaussian distributions, with the depth-to-width aspect ratio of the network controlling the deviations from the infinite-width Gaussian description. We explain how these effectively-deep networks learn nontrivial representations from training and more broadly analyze the mechanism of representation learning for nonlinear models. From a nearly-kernel-methods perspective, we find that the dependence of such models' predictions on the underlying learning algorithm can be expressed in a simple and universal way. To obtain these results, we develop the notion of representation group flow (RG flow) to characterize the propagation of signals through the network. By tuning networks to criticality, we give a practical solution to the exploding and vanishing gradient problem. We further explain how RG flow leads to near-universal behavior and lets us categorize networks built from different activation functions into universality classes. Altogether, we show that the depth-to-width ratio governs the effective model complexity of the ensemble of trained networks. By using information-theoretic techniques, we estimate the optimal aspect ratio at which we expect the network to be practically most useful and show how residual connections can be used to push this scale to arbitrary depths. With these tools, we can learn in detail about the inductive bias of architectures, hyperparameters, and optimizers.

Many important real-world problems have action spaces that are high-dimensional, continuous or both, making full enumeration of all possible actions infeasible. Instead, only small subsets of actions can be sampled for the purpose of policy evaluation and improvement. In this paper, we propose a general framework to reason in a principled way about policy evaluation and improvement over such sampled action subsets. This sample-based policy iteration framework can in principle be applied to any reinforcement learning algorithm based upon policy iteration. Concretely, we propose Sampled MuZero, an extension of the MuZero algorithm that is able to learn in domains with arbitrarily complex action spaces by planning over sampled actions. We demonstrate this approach on the classical board game of Go and on two continuous control benchmark domains: DeepMind Control Suite and Real-World RL Suite.

Seamlessly interacting with humans or robots is hard because these agents are non-stationary. They update their policy in response to the ego agent's behavior, and the ego agent must anticipate these changes to co-adapt. Inspired by humans, we recognize that robots do not need to explicitly model every low-level action another agent will make; instead, we can capture the latent strategy of other agents through high-level representations. We propose a reinforcement learning-based framework for learning latent representations of an agent's policy, where the ego agent identifies the relationship between its behavior and the other agent's future strategy. The ego agent then leverages these latent dynamics to influence the other agent, purposely guiding them towards policies suitable for co-adaptation. Across several simulated domains and a real-world air hockey game, our approach outperforms the alternatives and learns to influence the other agent.

This paper proposes a generic method to learn interpretable convolutional filters in a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) for object classification, where each interpretable filter encodes features of a specific object part. Our method does not require additional annotations of object parts or textures for supervision. Instead, we use the same training data as traditional CNNs. Our method automatically assigns each interpretable filter in a high conv-layer with an object part of a certain category during the learning process. Such explicit knowledge representations in conv-layers of CNN help people clarify the logic encoded in the CNN, i.e., answering what patterns the CNN extracts from an input image and uses for prediction. We have tested our method using different benchmark CNNs with various structures to demonstrate the broad applicability of our method. Experiments have shown that our interpretable filters are much more semantically meaningful than traditional filters.

Active learning has long been a topic of study in machine learning. However, as increasingly complex and opaque models have become standard practice, the process of active learning, too, has become more opaque. There has been little investigation into interpreting what specific trends and patterns an active learning strategy may be exploring. This work expands on the Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations framework (LIME) to provide explanations for active learning recommendations. We demonstrate how LIME can be used to generate locally faithful explanations for an active learning strategy, and how these explanations can be used to understand how different models and datasets explore a problem space over time. In order to quantify the per-subgroup differences in how an active learning strategy queries spatial regions, we introduce a notion of uncertainty bias (based on disparate impact) to measure the discrepancy in the confidence for a model's predictions between one subgroup and another. Using the uncertainty bias measure, we show that our query explanations accurately reflect the subgroup focus of the active learning queries, allowing for an interpretable explanation of what is being learned as points with similar sources of uncertainty have their uncertainty bias resolved. We demonstrate that this technique can be applied to track uncertainty bias over user-defined clusters or automatically generated clusters based on the source of uncertainty.

Options in reinforcement learning allow agents to hierarchically decompose a task into subtasks, having the potential to speed up learning and planning. However, autonomously learning effective sets of options is still a major challenge in the field. In this paper we focus on the recently introduced idea of using representation learning methods to guide the option discovery process. Specifically, we look at eigenoptions, options obtained from representations that encode diffusive information flow in the environment. We extend the existing algorithms for eigenoption discovery to settings with stochastic transitions and in which handcrafted features are not available. We propose an algorithm that discovers eigenoptions while learning non-linear state representations from raw pixels. It exploits recent successes in the deep reinforcement learning literature and the equivalence between proto-value functions and the successor representation. We use traditional tabular domains to provide intuition about our approach and Atari 2600 games to demonstrate its potential.

This paper proposes a method to modify traditional convolutional neural networks (CNNs) into interpretable CNNs, in order to clarify knowledge representations in high conv-layers of CNNs. In an interpretable CNN, each filter in a high conv-layer represents a certain object part. We do not need any annotations of object parts or textures to supervise the learning process. Instead, the interpretable CNN automatically assigns each filter in a high conv-layer with an object part during the learning process. Our method can be applied to different types of CNNs with different structures. The clear knowledge representation in an interpretable CNN can help people understand the logics inside a CNN, i.e., based on which patterns the CNN makes the decision. Experiments showed that filters in an interpretable CNN were more semantically meaningful than those in traditional CNNs.