In online learning from non-stationary data streams, it is necessary to learn robustly to outliers and to adapt quickly to changes in the underlying data generating mechanism. In this paper, we refer to the former attribute of online learning algorithms as robustness and to the latter as adaptivity. There is an obvious tradeoff between the two attributes. It is a fundamental issue to quantify and evaluate the tradeoff because it provides important information on the data generating mechanism. However, no previous work has considered the tradeoff quantitatively. We propose a novel algorithm called the stochastic approximation-based robustness-adaptivity algorithm (SRA) to evaluate the tradeoff. The key idea of SRA is to update parameters of distribution or sufficient statistics with the biased stochastic approximation scheme, while dropping data points with large values of the stochastic update. We address the relation between the two parameters: one is the step size of the stochastic approximation, and the other is the threshold parameter of the norm of the stochastic update. The former controls the adaptivity and the latter does the robustness. We give a theoretical analysis for the non-asymptotic convergence of SRA in the presence of outliers, which depends on both the step size and threshold parameter. Because SRA is formulated on the majorization-minimization principle, it is a general algorithm that includes many algorithms, such as the online EM algorithm and stochastic gradient descent. Empirical experiments for both synthetic and real datasets demonstrated that SRA was superior to previous methods.
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Recent advances in the theoretical understanding of SGD led to a formula for the optimal batch size minimizing the number of effective data passes, i.e., the number of iterations times the batch size. However, this formula is of no practical value as it depends on the knowledge of the variance of the stochastic gradients evaluated at the optimum. In this paper we design a practical SGD method capable of learning the optimal batch size adaptively throughout its iterations for strongly convex and smooth functions. Our method does this provably, and in our experiments with synthetic and real data robustly exhibits nearly optimal behaviour; that is, it works as if the optimal batch size was known a-priori. Further, we generalize our method to several new batch strategies not considered in the literature before, including a sampling suitable for distributed implementations.
We consider the problem of linear classification under general loss functions in the limited-data setting. Overfitting is a common problem here. The standard approaches to prevent overfitting are dimensionality reduction and regularization. But dimensionality reduction loses information, while regularization requires the user to choose a norm, or a prior, or a distance metric. We propose an algorithm called RoLin that needs no user choice and applies to a large class of loss functions. RoLin combines reliable information from the top principal components with a robust optimization to extract any useful information from unreliable subspaces. It also includes a new robust cross-validation that is better than existing cross-validation methods in the limited-data setting. Experiments on $25$ real-world datasets and three standard loss functions show that RoLin broadly outperforms both dimensionality reduction and regularization. Dimensionality reduction has $14\%-40\%$ worse test loss on average as compared to RoLin. Against $L_1$ and $L_2$ regularization, RoLin can be up to 3x better for logistic loss and 12x better for squared hinge loss. The differences are greatest for small sample sizes, where RoLin achieves the best loss on 2x to 3x more datasets than any competing method. For some datasets, RoLin with $15$ training samples is better than the best norm-based regularization with $1500$ samples.
Combination and aggregation techniques can significantly improve forecast accuracy. This also holds for probabilistic forecasting methods where predictive distributions are combined. There are several time-varying and adaptive weighting schemes such as Bayesian model averaging (BMA). However, the quality of different forecasts may vary not only over time but also within the distribution. For example, some distribution forecasts may be more accurate in the center of the distributions, while others are better at predicting the tails. Therefore, we introduce a new weighting method that considers the differences in performance over time and within the distribution. We discuss pointwise combination algorithms based on aggregation across quantiles that optimize with respect to the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). After analyzing the theoretical properties of pointwise CRPS learning, we discuss B- and P-Spline-based estimation techniques for batch and online learning, based on quantile regression and prediction with expert advice. We prove that the proposed fully adaptive Bernstein online aggregation (BOA) method for pointwise CRPS online learning has optimal convergence properties. They are confirmed in simulations and a probabilistic forecasting study for European emission allowance (EUA) prices.
We consider the problem of learning stabilizable systems governed by nonlinear state equation $h_{t+1}=\phi(h_t,u_t;\theta)+w_t$. Here $\theta$ is the unknown system dynamics, $h_t $ is the state, $u_t$ is the input and $w_t$ is the additive noise vector. We study gradient based algorithms to learn the system dynamics $\theta$ from samples obtained from a single finite trajectory. If the system is run by a stabilizing input policy, we show that temporally-dependent samples can be approximated by i.i.d. samples via a truncation argument by using mixing-time arguments. We then develop new guarantees for the uniform convergence of the gradients of empirical loss. Unlike existing work, our bounds are noise sensitive which allows for learning ground-truth dynamics with high accuracy and small sample complexity. Together, our results facilitate efficient learning of the general nonlinear system under stabilizing policy. We specialize our guarantees to entry-wise nonlinear activations and verify our theory in various numerical experiments
When and why can a neural network be successfully trained? This article provides an overview of optimization algorithms and theory for training neural networks. First, we discuss the issue of gradient explosion/vanishing and the more general issue of undesirable spectrum, and then discuss practical solutions including careful initialization and normalization methods. Second, we review generic optimization methods used in training neural networks, such as SGD, adaptive gradient methods and distributed methods, and theoretical results for these algorithms. Third, we review existing research on the global issues of neural network training, including results on bad local minima, mode connectivity, lottery ticket hypothesis and infinite-width analysis.
Learning from positive and unlabeled data or PU learning is the setting where a learner only has access to positive examples and unlabeled data. The assumption is that the unlabeled data can contain both positive and negative examples. This setting has attracted increasing interest within the machine learning literature as this type of data naturally arises in applications such as medical diagnosis and knowledge base completion. This article provides a survey of the current state of the art in PU learning. It proposes seven key research questions that commonly arise in this field and provides a broad overview of how the field has tried to address them.
Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) has become a popular method for scalable Bayesian inference. These methods are based on sampling a discrete-time approximation to a continuous time process, such as the Langevin diffusion. When applied to distributions defined on a constrained space, such as the simplex, the time-discretisation error can dominate when we are near the boundary of the space. We demonstrate that while current SGMCMC methods for the simplex perform well in certain cases, they struggle with sparse simplex spaces; when many of the components are close to zero. However, most popular large-scale applications of Bayesian inference on simplex spaces, such as network or topic models, are sparse. We argue that this poor performance is due to the biases of SGMCMC caused by the discretization error. To get around this, we propose the stochastic CIR process, which removes all discretization error and we prove that samples from the stochastic CIR process are asymptotically unbiased. Use of the stochastic CIR process within a SGMCMC algorithm is shown to give substantially better performance for a topic model and a Dirichlet process mixture model than existing SGMCMC approaches.
We develop an approach to risk minimization and stochastic optimization that provides a convex surrogate for variance, allowing near-optimal and computationally efficient trading between approximation and estimation error. Our approach builds off of techniques for distributionally robust optimization and Owen's empirical likelihood, and we provide a number of finite-sample and asymptotic results characterizing the theoretical performance of the estimator. In particular, we show that our procedure comes with certificates of optimality, achieving (in some scenarios) faster rates of convergence than empirical risk minimization by virtue of automatically balancing bias and variance. We give corroborating empirical evidence showing that in practice, the estimator indeed trades between variance and absolute performance on a training sample, improving out-of-sample (test) performance over standard empirical risk minimization for a number of classification problems.
In multi-task learning, a learner is given a collection of prediction tasks and needs to solve all of them. In contrast to previous work, which required that annotated training data is available for all tasks, we consider a new setting, in which for some tasks, potentially most of them, only unlabeled training data is provided. Consequently, to solve all tasks, information must be transferred between tasks with labels and tasks without labels. Focusing on an instance-based transfer method we analyze two variants of this setting: when the set of labeled tasks is fixed, and when it can be actively selected by the learner. We state and prove a generalization bound that covers both scenarios and derive from it an algorithm for making the choice of labeled tasks (in the active case) and for transferring information between the tasks in a principled way. We also illustrate the effectiveness of the algorithm by experiments on synthetic and real data.
During recent years, active learning has evolved into a popular paradigm for utilizing user's feedback to improve accuracy of learning algorithms. Active learning works by selecting the most informative sample among unlabeled data and querying the label of that point from user. Many different methods such as uncertainty sampling and minimum risk sampling have been utilized to select the most informative sample in active learning. Although many active learning algorithms have been proposed so far, most of them work with binary or multi-class classification problems and therefore can not be applied to problems in which only samples from one class as well as a set of unlabeled data are available. Such problems arise in many real-world situations and are known as the problem of learning from positive and unlabeled data. In this paper we propose an active learning algorithm that can work when only samples of one class as well as a set of unlabelled data are available. Our method works by separately estimating probability desnity of positive and unlabeled points and then computing expected value of informativeness to get rid of a hyper-parameter and have a better measure of informativeness./ Experiments and empirical analysis show promising results compared to other similar methods.
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