The crude Monte Carlo approximates the integral $$S(f)=\int_a^b f(x)\,\mathrm dx$$ with expected error (deviation) $\sigma(f)N^{-1/2},$ where $\sigma(f)^2$ is the variance of $f$ and $N$ is the number of random samples. If $f\in C^r$ then special variance reduction techniques can lower this error to the level $N^{-(r+1/2)}.$ In this paper, we consider methods of the form $$\overline M_{N,r}(f)=S(L_{m,r}f)+M_n(f-L_{m,r}f),$$ where $L_{m,r}$ is the piecewise polynomial interpolation of $f$ of degree $r-1$ using a partition of the interval $[a,b]$ into $m$ subintervals, $M_n$ is a Monte Carlo approximation using $n$ samples of $f,$ and $N$ is the total number of function evaluations used. We derive asymptotic error formulas for the methods $\overline M_{N,r}$ that use nonadaptive as well as adaptive partitions. Although the convergence rate $N^{-(r+1/2)}$ cannot be beaten, the asymptotic constants make a huge difference. For example, for $\int_0^1(x+d)^{-1}\mathrm dx$ and $r=4$ the best adaptive methods overcome the nonadaptive ones roughly $10^{12}$ times if $d=10^{-4},$ and $10^{29}$ times if $d=10^{-8}.$ In addition, the proposed adaptive methods are easily implementable and can be well used for automatic integration. We believe that the obtained results can be generalized to multivariate integration.
Given a partial differential equation (PDE), goal-oriented error estimation allows us to understand how errors in a diagnostic quantity of interest (QoI), or goal, occur and accumulate in a numerical approximation, for example using the finite element method. By decomposing the error estimates into contributions from individual elements, it is possible to formulate adaptation methods, which modify the mesh with the objective of minimising the resulting QoI error. However, the standard error estimate formulation involves the true adjoint solution, which is unknown in practice. As such, it is common practice to approximate it with an 'enriched' approximation (e.g. in a higher order space or on a refined mesh). Doing so generally results in a significant increase in computational cost, which can be a bottleneck compromising the competitiveness of (goal-oriented) adaptive simulations. The central idea of this paper is to develop a "data-driven" goal-oriented mesh adaptation approach through the selective replacement of the expensive error estimation step with an appropriately configured and trained neural network. In doing so, the error estimator may be obtained without even constructing the enriched spaces. An element-by-element construction is employed here, whereby local values of various parameters related to the mesh geometry and underlying problem physics are taken as inputs, and the corresponding contribution to the error estimator is taken as output. We demonstrate that this approach is able to obtain the same accuracy with a reduced computational cost, for adaptive mesh test cases related to flow around tidal turbines, which interact via their downstream wakes, and where the overall power output of the farm is taken as the QoI. Moreover, we demonstrate that the element-by-element approach implies reasonably low training costs.
In this paper, we study a sequential decision making problem faced by e-commerce carriers related to when to send out a vehicle from the central depot to serve customer requests, and in which order to provide the service, under the assumption that the time at which parcels arrive at the depot is stochastic and dynamic. The objective is to maximize the number of parcels that can be delivered during the service hours. We propose two reinforcement learning approaches for solving this problem, one based on a policy function approximation (PFA) and the second on a value function approximation (VFA). Both methods are combined with a look-ahead strategy, in which future release dates are sampled in a Monte-Carlo fashion and a tailored batch approach is used to approximate the value of future states. Our PFA and VFA make a good use of branch-and-cut-based exact methods to improve the quality of decisions. We also establish sufficient conditions for partial characterization of optimal policy and integrate them into PFA/VFA. In an empirical study based on 720 benchmark instances, we conduct a competitive analysis using upper bounds with perfect information and we show that PFA and VFA greatly outperform two alternative myopic approaches. Overall, PFA provides best solutions, while VFA (which benefits from a two-stage stochastic optimization model) achieves a better tradeoff between solution quality and computing time.
Stochastic rounding (SR) offers an alternative to the deterministic IEEE-754 floating-point rounding modes. In some applications such as PDEs, ODEs and neural networks, SR empirically improves the numerical behavior and convergence to accurate solutions while no sound theoretical background has been provided. Recent works by Ipsen, Zhou, Higham, and Mary have computed SR probabilistic error bounds for basic linear algebra kernels. For example, the inner product SR probabilistic bound of the forward error is proportional to $\sqrt$ nu instead of nu for the default rounding mode. To compute the bounds, these works show that the errors accumulated in computation form a martingale. This paper proposes an alternative framework to characterize SR errors based on the computation of the variance. We pinpoint common error patterns in numerical algorithms and propose a lemma that bounds their variance. For each probability and through Bienaym{\'e}-Chebyshev inequality, this bound leads to better probabilistic error bound in several situations. Our method has the advantage of providing a tight probabilistic bound for all algorithms fitting our model. We show how the method can be applied to give SR error bounds for the inner product and Horner polynomial evaluation.
It was observed in \citet{gupta2009differentially} that the Set Cover problem has strong impossibility results under differential privacy. In our work, we observe that these hardness results dissolve when we turn to the Partial Set Cover problem, where we only need to cover a $\rho$-fraction of the elements in the universe, for some $\rho\in(0,1)$. We show that this relaxation enables us to avoid the impossibility results: under loose conditions on the input set system, we give differentially private algorithms which output an explicit set cover with non-trivial approximation guarantees. In particular, this is the first differentially private algorithm which outputs an explicit set cover. Using our algorithm for Partial Set Cover as a subroutine, we give a differentially private (bicriteria) approximation algorithm for a facility location problem which generalizes $k$-center/$k$-supplier with outliers. Like with the Set Cover problem, no algorithm has been able to give non-trivial guarantees for $k$-center/$k$-supplier-type facility location problems due to the high sensitivity and impossibility results. Our algorithm shows that relaxing the covering requirement to serving only a $\rho$-fraction of the population, for $\rho\in(0,1)$, enables us to circumvent the inherent hardness. Overall, our work is an important step in tackling and understanding impossibility results in private combinatorial optimization.
Importance sampling (IS) is valuable in reducing the variance of Monte Carlo sampling for many areas, including finance, rare event simulation, and Bayesian inference. It is natural and obvious to combine quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods with IS to achieve a faster rate of convergence. However, a naive replacement of Monte Carlo with QMC may not work well. This paper investigates the convergence rates of randomized QMC-based IS for estimating integrals with respect to a Gaussian measure, in which the IS measure is a Gaussian or $t$ distribution. We prove that if the target function satisfies the so-called boundary growth condition and the covariance matrix of the IS density has eigenvalues no smaller than 1, then randomized QMC with the Gaussian proposal has a root mean squared error of $O(N^{-1+\epsilon})$ for arbitrarily small $\epsilon>0$. Similar results of $t$ distribution as the proposal are also established. These sufficient conditions help to assess the effectiveness of IS in QMC. For some particular applications, we find that the Laplace IS, a very general approach to approximate the target function by a quadratic Taylor approximation around its mode, has eigenvalues smaller than 1, making the resulting integrand less favorable for QMC. From this point of view, when using Gaussian distributions as the IS proposal, a change of measure via Laplace IS may transform a favorable integrand into unfavorable one for QMC although the variance of Monte Carlo sampling is reduced. We also give some examples to verify our propositions and warn against naive replacement of MC with QMC under IS proposals. Numerical results suggest that using Laplace IS with $t$ distributions is more robust than that with Gaussian distributions.
We present a mathematical and numerical investigation to the shrinkingdimer saddle dynamics for finding any-index saddle points in the solution landscape. Due to the dimer approximation of Hessian in saddle dynamics, the local Lipschitz assumptions and the strong nonlinearity for the saddle dynamics, it remains challenges for delicate analysis, such as the the boundedness of the solutions and the dimer error. We address these issues to bound the solutions under proper relaxation parameters, based on which we prove the error estimates for numerical discretization to the shrinking-dimer saddle dynamics by matching the dimer length and the time step size. Furthermore, the Richardson extrapolation is employed to obtain a high-order approximation. The inherent reason of requiring the matching of the dimer length and the time step size lies in that the former serves a different mesh size from the later, and thus the proposed numerical method is close to a fully-discrete numerical scheme of some spacetime PDE model with the Hessian in the saddle dynamics and its dimer approximation serving as a "spatial operator" and its discretization, respectively, which in turn indicates the PDE nature of the saddle dynamics.
This study develops an asymptotic theory for estimating the time-varying characteristics of locally stationary functional time series. We investigate a kernel-based method to estimate the time-varying covariance operator and the time-varying mean function of a locally stationary functional time series. In particular, we derive the convergence rate of the kernel estimator of the covariance operator and associated eigenvalue and eigenfunctions and establish a central limit theorem for the kernel-based locally weighted sample mean. As applications of our results, we discuss the prediction of locally stationary functional time series and methods for testing the equality of time-varying mean functions in two functional samples.
We present a new approach-the ALVar estimator-to estimation of asymptotic variance in sequential Monte Carlo methods, or, particle filters. The method, which adjusts adaptively the lag of the estimator proposed in [Olsson, J. and Douc, R. (2019). Numerically stable online estimation of variance in particle filters. Bernoulli, 25(2), pp. 1504-1535] applies to very general distribution flows and particle filters, including auxiliary particle filters with adaptive resampling. The algorithm operates entirely online, in the sense that it is able to monitor the variance of the particle filter in real time and with, on the average, constant computational complexity and memory requirements per iteration. Crucially, it does not require the calibration of any algorithmic parameter. Estimating the variance only on the basis of the genealogy of the propagated particle cloud, without additional simulations, the routine requires only minor code additions to the underlying particle algorithm. Finally, we prove that the ALVar estimator is consistent for the true asymptotic variance as the number of particles tends to infinity and illustrate numerically its superiority to existing approaches.
As soon as abstract mathematical computations were adapted to computation on digital computers, the problem of efficient representation, manipulation, and communication of the numerical values in those computations arose. Strongly related to the problem of numerical representation is the problem of quantization: in what manner should a set of continuous real-valued numbers be distributed over a fixed discrete set of numbers to minimize the number of bits required and also to maximize the accuracy of the attendant computations? This perennial problem of quantization is particularly relevant whenever memory and/or computational resources are severely restricted, and it has come to the forefront in recent years due to the remarkable performance of Neural Network models in computer vision, natural language processing, and related areas. Moving from floating-point representations to low-precision fixed integer values represented in four bits or less holds the potential to reduce the memory footprint and latency by a factor of 16x; and, in fact, reductions of 4x to 8x are often realized in practice in these applications. Thus, it is not surprising that quantization has emerged recently as an important and very active sub-area of research in the efficient implementation of computations associated with Neural Networks. In this article, we survey approaches to the problem of quantizing the numerical values in deep Neural Network computations, covering the advantages/disadvantages of current methods. With this survey and its organization, we hope to have presented a useful snapshot of the current research in quantization for Neural Networks and to have given an intelligent organization to ease the evaluation of future research in this area.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.