This paper introduces an assumption-lean method that constructs valid and efficient lower predictive bounds (LPBs) for survival times with censored data. We build on recent work by Cand\`es et al. (2021), whose approach first subsets the data to discard any data points with early censoring times, and then uses a reweighting technique (namely, weighted conformal inference (Tibshirani et al., 2019)) to correct for the distribution shift introduced by this subsetting procedure. For our new method, instead of constraining to a fixed threshold for the censoring time when subsetting the data, we allow for a covariate-dependent and data-adaptive subsetting step, which is better able to capture the heterogeneity of the censoring mechanism. As a result, our method can lead to LPBs that are less conservative and give more accurate information. We show that in the Type I right-censoring setting, if either of the censoring mechanism or the conditional quantile of survival time is well estimated, our proposed procedure achieves nearly exact marginal coverage, where in the latter case we additionally have approximate conditional coverage. We evaluate the validity and efficiency of our proposed algorithm in numerical experiments, illustrating its advantage when compared with other competing methods. Finally, our method is applied to a real dataset to generate LPBs for users' active times on a mobile app.
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At the crossway of machine learning and data analysis, anomaly detection aims at identifying observations that exhibit abnormal behaviour. Be it measurement errors, disease development, severe weather, production quality default(s) (items) or failed equipment, financial frauds or crisis events, their on-time identification and isolation constitute an important task in almost any area of industry and science. While a substantial body of literature is devoted to detection of anomalies, little attention is payed to their explanation. This is the case mostly due to intrinsically non-supervised nature of the task and non-robustness of the exploratory methods like principal component analysis (PCA). We introduce a new statistical tool dedicated for exploratory analysis of abnormal observations using data depth as a score. Anomaly component analysis (shortly ACA) is a method that searches a low-dimensional data representation that best visualises and explains anomalies. This low-dimensional representation not only allows to distinguish groups of anomalies better than the methods of the state of the art, but as well provides a -- linear in variables and thus easily interpretable -- explanation for anomalies. In a comparative simulation and real-data study, ACA also proves advantageous for anomaly analysis with respect to methods present in the literature.
An a posteriori error estimator based on an equilibrated flux reconstruction is proposed for defeaturing problems in the context of finite element discretizations. Defeaturing consists in the simplification of a geometry by removing features that are considered not relevant for the approximation of the solution of a given PDE. In this work, the focus is on Poisson equation with Neumann boundary conditions on the feature boundary. The estimator accounts both for the so-called defeaturing error and for the numerical error committed by approximating the solution on the defeatured domain. Unlike other estimators that were previously proposed for defeaturing problems, the use of the equilibrated flux reconstruction allows to obtain a sharp bound for the numerical component of the error. Furthermore, it does not require the evaluation of the normal trace of the numerical flux on the feature boundary: this makes the estimator well-suited for finite element discretizations, in which the normal trace of the numerical flux is typically discontinuous across elements. The reliability of the estimator is proven and verified on several numerical examples. Its capability to identify the most relevant features is also shown, in anticipation of a future application to an adaptive strategy.
This paper introduces a new theoretical and computational framework for a data driven Koopman mode analysis of nonlinear dynamics. To alleviate the potential problem of ill-conditioned eigenvectors in the existing implementations of the Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) and the Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD), the new method introduces a Koopman-Schur decomposition that is entirely based on unitary transformations. The analysis in terms of the eigenvectors as modes of a Koopman operator compression is replaced with a modal decomposition in terms of a flag of invariant subspaces that correspond to selected eigenvalues. The main computational tool from the numerical linear algebra is the partial ordered Schur decomposition that provides convenient orthonormal bases for these subspaces. In the case of real data, a real Schur form is used and the computation is based on real orthogonal transformations. The new computational scheme is presented in the framework of the Extended DMD and the kernel trick is used.
We propose a method for computing the Lyapunov exponents of renewal equations (delay equations of Volterra type) and of coupled systems of renewal and delay differential equations. The method consists in the reformulation of the delay equation as an abstract differential equation, the reduction of the latter to a system of ordinary differential equations via pseudospectral collocation, and the application of the standard discrete QR method. The effectiveness of the method is shown experimentally and a MATLAB implementation is provided.
We provide an overview of recent progress in statistical inverse problems with random experimental design, covering both linear and nonlinear inverse problems. Different regularization schemes have been studied to produce robust and stable solutions. We discuss recent results in spectral regularization methods and regularization by projection, exploring both approaches within the context of Hilbert scales and presenting new insights particularly in regularization by projection. Additionally, we overview recent advancements in regularization using convex penalties. Convergence rates are analyzed in terms of the sample size in a probabilistic sense, yielding minimax rates in both expectation and probability. To achieve these results, the structure of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces is leveraged to establish minimax rates in the statistical learning setting. We detail the assumptions underpinning these key elements of our proofs. Finally, we demonstrate the application of these concepts to nonlinear inverse problems in pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models, where the task is to predict changes in drug concentrations in patients.
This paper proposes an implicit family of sub-step integration algorithms grounded in the explicit singly diagonally implicit Runge-Kutta (ESDIRK) method. The proposed methods achieve third-order consistency per sub-step and thus the trapezoidal rule is always employed in the first sub-step. This paper demonstrates for the first time that the proposed $ s $-sub-step implicit method with $ s\le6 $ can reach $ s $th-order accuracy when achieving dissipation control and unconditional stability simultaneously. Hence, this paper develops, analyzes, and compares four cost-optimal high-order implicit algorithms within the present $ s $-sub-step method using three, four, five, and six sub-steps. Each high-order implicit algorithm shares identical effective stiffness matrices to achieve optimal spectral properties. Unlike the published algorithms, the proposed high-order methods do not suffer from the order reduction for solving forced vibrations. Moreover, the novel methods overcome the defect that the authors' previous algorithms require an additional solution to obtain accurate accelerations. Linear and nonlinear examples are solved to confirm the numerical performance and superiority of four novel high-order algorithms.
We propose a simple multivariate normality test based on Kac-Bernstein's characterization, which can be conducted by utilising existing statistical independence tests for sums and differences of data samples. We also perform its empirical investigation, which reveals that for high-dimensional data, the proposed approach may be more efficient than the alternative ones. The accompanying code repository is provided at \url{//shorturl.at/rtuy5}.
Many complex tasks and environments can be decomposed into simpler, independent parts. Discovering such underlying compositional structure has the potential to expedite adaptation and enable compositional generalization. Despite progress, our most powerful systems struggle to compose flexibly. While most of these systems are monolithic, modularity promises to allow capturing the compositional nature of many tasks. However, it is unclear under which circumstances modular systems discover this hidden compositional structure. To shed light on this question, we study a teacher-student setting with a modular teacher where we have full control over the composition of ground truth modules. This allows us to relate the problem of compositional generalization to that of identification of the underlying modules. We show theoretically that identification up to linear transformation purely from demonstrations is possible in hypernetworks without having to learn an exponential number of module combinations. While our theory assumes the infinite data limit, in an extensive empirical study we demonstrate how meta-learning from finite data can discover modular solutions that generalize compositionally in modular but not monolithic architectures. We further show that our insights translate outside the teacher-student setting and demonstrate that in tasks with compositional preferences and tasks with compositional goals hypernetworks can discover modular policies that compositionally generalize.
Advances in large language models (LLMs) have driven an explosion of interest about their societal impacts. Much of the discourse around how they will impact social equity has been cautionary or negative, focusing on questions like "how might LLMs be biased and how would we mitigate those biases?" This is a vital discussion: the ways in which AI generally, and LLMs specifically, can entrench biases have been well-documented. But equally vital, and much less discussed, is the more opportunity-focused counterpoint: "what promising applications do LLMs enable that could promote equity?" If LLMs are to enable a more equitable world, it is not enough just to play defense against their biases and failure modes. We must also go on offense, applying them positively to equity-enhancing use cases to increase opportunities for underserved groups and reduce societal discrimination. There are many choices which determine the impact of AI, and a fundamental choice very early in the pipeline is the problems we choose to apply it to. If we focus only later in the pipeline -- making LLMs marginally more fair as they facilitate use cases which intrinsically entrench power -- we will miss an important opportunity to guide them to equitable impacts. Here, we highlight the emerging potential of LLMs to promote equity by presenting four newly possible, promising research directions, while keeping risks and cautionary points in clear view.
Deep learning is usually described as an experiment-driven field under continuous criticizes of lacking theoretical foundations. This problem has been partially fixed by a large volume of literature which has so far not been well organized. This paper reviews and organizes the recent advances in deep learning theory. The literature is categorized in six groups: (1) complexity and capacity-based approaches for analyzing the generalizability of deep learning; (2) stochastic differential equations and their dynamic systems for modelling stochastic gradient descent and its variants, which characterize the optimization and generalization of deep learning, partially inspired by Bayesian inference; (3) the geometrical structures of the loss landscape that drives the trajectories of the dynamic systems; (4) the roles of over-parameterization of deep neural networks from both positive and negative perspectives; (5) theoretical foundations of several special structures in network architectures; and (6) the increasingly intensive concerns in ethics and security and their relationships with generalizability.
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