Applications such as the analysis of microbiome data have led to renewed interest in statistical methods for compositional data, i.e., multivariate data in the form of probability vectors that contain relative proportions. In particular, there is considerable interest in modeling interactions among such relative proportions. To this end we propose a class of exponential family models that accommodate general patterns of pairwise interaction while being supported on the probability simplex. Special cases include the family of Dirichlet distributions as well as Aitchison's additive logistic normal distributions. Generally, the distributions we consider have a density that features a difficult to compute normalizing constant. To circumvent this issue, we design effective estimation methods based on generalized versions of score matching. A high-dimensional analysis of our estimation methods shows that the simplex domain is handled as efficiently as previously studied full-dimensional domains.
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Matrix trace estimation is ubiquitous in machine learning applications and has traditionally relied on Hutchinson's method, which requires $O(\log(1/\delta)/\epsilon^2)$ matrix-vector product queries to achieve a $(1 \pm \epsilon)$-multiplicative approximation to $\text{tr}(A)$ with failure probability $\delta$ on positive-semidefinite input matrices $A$. Recently, the Hutch++ algorithm was proposed, which reduces the number of matrix-vector queries from $O(1/\epsilon^2)$ to the optimal $O(1/\epsilon)$, and the algorithm succeeds with constant probability. However, in the high probability setting, the non-adaptive Hutch++ algorithm suffers an extra $O(\sqrt{\log(1/\delta)})$ multiplicative factor in its query complexity. Non-adaptive methods are important, as they correspond to sketching algorithms, which are mergeable, highly parallelizable, and provide low-memory streaming algorithms as well as low-communication distributed protocols. In this work, we close the gap between non-adaptive and adaptive algorithms, showing that even non-adaptive algorithms can achieve $O(\sqrt{\log(1/\delta)}/\epsilon + \log(1/\delta))$ matrix-vector products. In addition, we prove matching lower bounds demonstrating that, up to a $\log \log(1/\delta)$ factor, no further improvement in the dependence on $\delta$ or $\epsilon$ is possible by any non-adaptive algorithm. Finally, our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of our sketch over the adaptive Hutch++ algorithm, which is less parallelizable, as well as over the non-adaptive Hutchinson's method.
Normalizing flows are inevitable neural networks with tractable change-of-volume terms, which allow optimization of their parameters to be efficiently performed via maximum likelihood. However, data of interest are typically assumed to live in some (often unknown) low-dimensional manifold embedded in a high-dimensional ambient space. The result is a modelling mismatch since -- by construction -- the invertibility requirement implies high-dimensional support of the learned distribution. Injective flows, mappings from low- to high-dimensional spaces, aim to fix this discrepancy by learning distributions on manifolds, but the resulting volume-change term becomes more challenging to evaluate. Current approaches either avoid computing this term entirely using various heuristics, or assume the manifold is known beforehand and therefore are not widely applicable. Instead, we propose two methods to tractably calculate the gradient of this term with respect to the parameters of the model, relying on careful use of automatic differentiation and techniques from numerical linear algebra. Both approaches perform end-to-end nonlinear manifold learning and density estimation for data projected onto this manifold. We study the trade-offs between our proposed methods, empirically verify that we outperform approaches ignoring the volume-change term by more accurately learning manifolds and the corresponding distributions on them, and show promising results on out-of-distribution detection. Our code is available at //github.com/layer6ai-labs/rectangular-flows.
In many areas of applied statistics and machine learning, generating an arbitrary number of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples from a given distribution is a key task. When the distribution is known only through evaluations of the density, current methods either scale badly with the dimension or require very involved implementations. Instead, we take a two-step approach by first modeling the probability distribution and then sampling from that model. We use the recently introduced class of positive semi-definite (PSD) models, which have been shown to be efficient for approximating probability densities. We show that these models can approximate a large class of densities concisely using few evaluations, and present a simple algorithm to effectively sample from these models. We also present preliminary empirical results to illustrate our assertions.
Real-world datasets often have missing values associated with complex generative processes, where the cause of the missingness may not be fully observed. This is known as missing not at random (MNAR) data. However, many imputation methods do not take into account the missingness mechanism, resulting in biased imputation values when MNAR data is present. Although there are a few methods that have considered the MNAR scenario, their model's identifiability under MNAR is generally not guaranteed. That is, model parameters can not be uniquely determined even with infinite data samples, hence the imputation results given by such models can still be biased. This issue is especially overlooked by many modern deep generative models. In this work, we fill in this gap by systematically analyzing the identifiability of generative models under MNAR. Furthermore, we propose a practical deep generative model which can provide identifiability guarantees under mild assumptions, for a wide range of MNAR mechanisms. Our method demonstrates a clear advantage for tasks on both synthetic data and multiple real-world scenarios with MNAR data.
It can be difficult to assess the quality of a fitted model when facing unsupervised learning problems. Latent variable models, such as variation autoencoders and Gaussian mixture models, are often trained with likelihood-based approaches. In scope of Goodhart's law, when a metric becomes a target it ceases to be a good metric and therefore we should not use likelihood to assess the quality of the fit of these models. The solution we propose is a new metric for model comparison or regularization that relies on moments. The concept is to study the difference between the data moments and the model moments using a matrix norm, such as the Frobenius norm. We show how to use this new metric for model comparison and then for regularization. It is common to draw samples from the fitted distribution when evaluating latent variable models and we show that our proposed metric is faster to compute and has a smaller variance that this alternative. We conclude this article with a proof of concept of both applications and we discuss future work.
This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.
In the domain generalization literature, a common objective is to learn representations independent of the domain after conditioning on the class label. We show that this objective is not sufficient: there exist counter-examples where a model fails to generalize to unseen domains even after satisfying class-conditional domain invariance. We formalize this observation through a structural causal model and show the importance of modeling within-class variations for generalization. Specifically, classes contain objects that characterize specific causal features, and domains can be interpreted as interventions on these objects that change non-causal features. We highlight an alternative condition: inputs across domains should have the same representation if they are derived from the same object. Based on this objective, we propose matching-based algorithms when base objects are observed (e.g., through data augmentation) and approximate the objective when objects are not observed (MatchDG). Our simple matching-based algorithms are competitive to prior work on out-of-domain accuracy for rotated MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, PACS, and Chest-Xray datasets. Our method MatchDG also recovers ground-truth object matches: on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST, top-10 matches from MatchDG have over 50% overlap with ground-truth matches.
Leveraging biased click data for optimizing learning to rank systems has been a popular approach in information retrieval. Because click data is often noisy and biased, a variety of methods have been proposed to construct unbiased learning to rank (ULTR) algorithms for the learning of unbiased ranking models. Among them, automatic unbiased learning to rank (AutoULTR) algorithms that jointly learn user bias models (i.e., propensity models) with unbiased rankers have received a lot of attention due to their superior performance and low deployment cost in practice. Despite their differences in theories and algorithm design, existing studies on ULTR usually use uni-variate ranking functions to score each document or result independently. On the other hand, recent advances in context-aware learning-to-rank models have shown that multivariate scoring functions, which read multiple documents together and predict their ranking scores jointly, are more powerful than uni-variate ranking functions in ranking tasks with human-annotated relevance labels. Whether such superior performance would hold in ULTR with noisy data, however, is mostly unknown. In this paper, we investigate existing multivariate scoring functions and AutoULTR algorithms in theory and prove that permutation invariance is a crucial factor that determines whether a context-aware learning-to-rank model could be applied to existing AutoULTR framework. Our experiments with synthetic clicks on two large-scale benchmark datasets show that AutoULTR models with permutation-invariant multivariate scoring functions significantly outperform those with uni-variate scoring functions and permutation-variant multivariate scoring functions.
An important problem in geostatistics is to build models of the subsurface of the Earth given physical measurements at sparse spatial locations. Typically, this is done using spatial interpolation methods or by reproducing patterns from a reference image. However, these algorithms fail to produce realistic patterns and do not exhibit the wide range of uncertainty inherent in the prediction of geology. In this paper, we show how semantic inpainting with Generative Adversarial Networks can be used to generate varied realizations of geology which honor physical measurements while matching the expected geological patterns. In contrast to other algorithms, our method scales well with the number of data points and mimics a distribution of patterns as opposed to a single pattern or image. The generated conditional samples are state of the art.
An interactive image retrieval system learns which images in the database belong to a user's query concept, by analyzing the example images and feedback provided by the user. The challenge is to retrieve the relevant images with minimal user interaction. In this work, we propose to solve this problem by posing it as a binary classification task of classifying all images in the database as being relevant or irrelevant to the user's query concept. Our method combines active learning with graph-based semi-supervised learning (GSSL) to tackle this problem. Active learning reduces the number of user interactions by querying the labels of the most informative points and GSSL allows to use abundant unlabeled data along with the limited labeled data provided by the user. To efficiently find the most informative point, we use an uncertainty sampling based method that queries the label of the point nearest to the decision boundary of the classifier. We estimate this decision boundary using our heuristic of adaptive threshold. To utilize huge volumes of unlabeled data we use an efficient approximation based method that reduces the complexity of GSSL from $O(n^3)$ to $O(n)$, making GSSL scalable. We make the classifier robust to the diversity and noisy labels associated with images in large databases by incorporating information from multiple modalities such as visual information extracted from deep learning based models and semantic information extracted from the WordNet. High F1 scores within few relevance feedback rounds in our experiments with concepts defined on AnimalWithAttributes and Imagenet (1.2 million images) datasets indicate the effectiveness and scalability of our approach.
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