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Optimizing static risk-averse objectives in Markov decision processes is difficult because they do not admit standard dynamic programming equations common in Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms. Dynamic programming decompositions that augment the state space with discrete risk levels have recently gained popularity in the RL community. Prior work has shown that these decompositions are optimal when the risk level is discretized sufficiently. However, we show that these popular decompositions for Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and Entropic-Value-at-Risk (EVaR) are inherently suboptimal regardless of the discretization level. In particular, we show that a saddle point property assumed to hold in prior literature may be violated. However, a decomposition does hold for Value-at-Risk and our proof demonstrates how this risk measure differs from CVaR and EVaR. Our findings are significant because risk-averse algorithms are used in high-stake environments, making their correctness much more critical.

Unknown-unknowns are operational scenarios in systems that are not accounted for in the design and test phase. In such scenarios, the operational behavior of the Human-in-loop (HIL) Human-in-Plant (HIP) systems is not guaranteed to meet requirements such as safety and efficacy. We propose a novel framework for analyzing the operational output characteristics of safety-critical HIL-HIP systems that can discover unknown-unknown scenarios and evaluate potential safety hazards. We propose dynamics-induced hybrid recurrent neural networks (DiH-RNN) to mine a physics-guided surrogate model (PGSM) that checks for deviation of the cyber-physical system (CPS) from safety-certified operational characteristics. The PGSM enables early detection of unknown-unknowns based on the physical laws governing the system. We demonstrate the detection of operational changes in an Artificial Pancreas(AP) due to unknown insulin cartridge errors.

Quantum Relative Entropy (QRE) programming is a recently popular and challenging class of convex optimization problems with significant applications in quantum computing and quantum information theory. We are interested in modern interior point (IP) methods based on optimal self-concordant barriers for the QRE cone. A range of theoretical and numerical challenges associated with such barrier functions and the QRE cones have hindered the scalability of IP methods. To address these challenges, we propose a series of numerical and linear algebraic techniques and heuristics aimed at enhancing the efficiency of gradient and Hessian computations for the self-concordant barrier function, solving linear systems, and performing matrix-vector products. We also introduce and deliberate about some interesting concepts related to QRE such as symmetric quantum relative entropy (SQRE). We also introduce a two-phase method for performing facial reduction that can significantly improve the performance of QRE programming. Our new techniques have been implemented in the latest version (DDS 2.2) of the software package DDS. In addition to handling QRE constraints, DDS accepts any combination of several other conic and non-conic convex constraints. Our comprehensive numerical experiments encompass several parts including 1) a comparison of DDS 2.2 with Hypatia for the nearest correlation matrix problem, 2) using DDS for combining QRE constraints with various other constraint types, and 3) calculating the key rate for quantum key distribution (QKD) channels and presenting results for several QKD protocols.

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions for machine learning models that are valid with high probability. A key component of conformal prediction algorithms is a non-conformity score function that quantifies how different a model's prediction is from the unknown ground truth value. Essentially, these functions determine the shape and the size of the conformal prediction regions. However, little work has gone into finding non-conformity score functions that produce prediction regions that are multi-modal and practical, i.e., that can efficiently be used in engineering applications. We propose a method that optimizes parameterized shape template functions over calibration data, which results in non-conformity score functions that produce prediction regions with minimum volume. Our approach results in prediction regions that are multi-modal, so they can properly capture residuals of distributions that have multiple modes, and practical, so each region is convex and can be easily incorporated into downstream tasks, such as a motion planner using conformal prediction regions. Our method applies to general supervised learning tasks, while we illustrate its use in time-series prediction. We provide a toolbox and present illustrative case studies of F16 fighter jets and autonomous vehicles, showing an up to $68\%$ reduction in prediction region area.

Offline optimal planning of trajectories for redundant robots along prescribed task space paths is usually broken down into two consecutive processes: first, the task space path is inverted to obtain a joint space path, then, the latter is parametrized with a time law. If the two processes are separated, they cannot optimize the same objective function, ultimately providing sub-optimal results. In this paper, a unified approach is presented where dynamic programming is the underlying optimization technique. Its flexibility allows accommodating arbitrary constraints and objective functions, thus providing a generic framework for optimal planning of real systems. To demonstrate its applicability to a real world scenario, the framework is instantiated for time-optimality on Franka Emika's Panda robot. The well-known issues associated with the execution of non-smooth trajectories on a real controller are partially addressed at planning level, through the enforcement of constraints, and partially through post-processing of the optimal solution. The experiments show that the proposed framework is able to effectively exploit kinematic redundancy to optimize the performance index defined at planning level and generate feasible trajectories that can be executed on real hardware with satisfactory results.

Energy-based models (EBMs) are generative models inspired by statistical physics with a wide range of applications in unsupervised learning. Their performance is best measured by the cross-entropy (CE) of the model distribution relative to the data distribution. Using the CE as the objective for training is however challenging because the computation of its gradient with respect to the model parameters requires sampling the model distribution. Here we show how results for nonequilibrium thermodynamics based on Jarzynski equality together with tools from sequential Monte-Carlo sampling can be used to perform this computation efficiently and avoid the uncontrolled approximations made using the standard contrastive divergence algorithm. Specifically, we introduce a modification of the unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA) in which each walker acquires a weight that enables the estimation of the gradient of the cross-entropy at any step during GD, thereby bypassing sampling biases induced by slow mixing of ULA. We illustrate these results with numerical experiments on Gaussian mixture distributions as well as the MNIST dataset. We show that the proposed approach outperforms methods based on the contrastive divergence algorithm in all the considered situations.

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) fuse data from multiple sensors and sensing modalities to impart a measure of robustness when operating in adverse conditions. Radars and cameras are popular choices for use in sensor fusion; although radar measurements are sparse in comparison to camera images, radar scans penetrate fog, rain, and snow. However, accurate sensor fusion depends upon knowledge of the spatial transform between the sensors and any temporal misalignment that exists in their measurement times. During the life cycle of an AV, these calibration parameters may change, so the ability to perform in-situ spatiotemporal calibration is essential to ensure reliable long-term operation. State-of-the-art 3D radar-camera spatiotemporal calibration algorithms require bespoke calibration targets that are not readily available in the field. In this paper, we describe an algorithm for targetless spatiotemporal calibration that does not require specialized infrastructure. Our approach leverages the ability of the radar unit to measure its own ego-velocity relative to a fixed, external reference frame. We analyze the identifiability of the spatiotemporal calibration problem and determine the motions necessary for calibration. Through a series of simulation studies, we characterize the sensitivity of our algorithm to measurement noise. Finally, we demonstrate accurate calibration for three real-world systems, including a handheld sensor rig and a vehicle-mounted sensor array. Our results show that we are able to match the performance of an existing, target-based method, while calibrating in arbitrary, infrastructure-free environments.

The fusion of causal models with deep learning introducing increasingly intricate data sets, such as the causal associations within images or between textual components, has surfaced as a focal research area. Nonetheless, the broadening of original causal concepts and theories to such complex, non-statistical data has been met with serious challenges. In response, our study proposes redefinitions of causal data into three distinct categories from the standpoint of causal structure and representation: definite data, semi-definite data, and indefinite data. Definite data chiefly pertains to statistical data used in conventional causal scenarios, while semi-definite data refers to a spectrum of data formats germane to deep learning, including time-series, images, text, and others. Indefinite data is an emergent research sphere inferred from the progression of data forms by us. To comprehensively present these three data paradigms, we elaborate on their formal definitions, differences manifested in datasets, resolution pathways, and development of research. We summarize key tasks and achievements pertaining to definite and semi-definite data from myriad research undertakings, present a roadmap for indefinite data, beginning with its current research conundrums. Lastly, we classify and scrutinize the key datasets presently utilized within these three paradigms.

The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.

Traffic forecasting is an important factor for the success of intelligent transportation systems. Deep learning models including convolution neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been applied in traffic forecasting problems to model the spatial and temporal dependencies. In recent years, to model the graph structures in the transportation systems as well as the contextual information, graph neural networks (GNNs) are introduced as new tools and have achieved the state-of-the-art performance in a series of traffic forecasting problems. In this survey, we review the rapidly growing body of recent research using different GNNs, e.g., graph convolutional and graph attention networks, in various traffic forecasting problems, e.g., road traffic flow and speed forecasting, passenger flow forecasting in urban rail transit systems, demand forecasting in ride-hailing platforms, etc. We also present a collection of open data and source resources for each problem, as well as future research directions. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first comprehensive survey that explores the application of graph neural networks for traffic forecasting problems. We have also created a public Github repository to update the latest papers, open data and source resources.