In recent years, research on near-term quantum machine learning has explored how classical machine learning algorithms endowed with access to quantum kernels (similarity measures) can outperform their purely classical counterparts. Although theoretical work has shown provable advantage on synthetic data sets, no work done to date has studied empirically whether quantum advantage is attainable and with what kind of data set. In this paper, we report the first systematic investigation of empirical quantum advantage (EQA) in healthcare and life sciences and propose an end-to-end framework to study EQA. We selected electronic health records (EHRs) data subsets and created a configuration space of 5-20 features and 200-300 training samples. For each configuration coordinate, we trained classical support vector machine (SVM) models based on radial basis function (RBF) kernels and quantum models with custom kernels using an IBM quantum computer, making this one of the largest quantum machine learning experiments to date. We empirically identified regimes where quantum kernels could provide advantage on a particular data set and introduced a terrain ruggedness index, a metric to help quantitatively estimate how the accuracy of a given model will perform as a function of the number of features and sample size. The generalizable framework introduced here represents a key step towards a priori identification of data sets where quantum advantage could exist.
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The approximate uniform sampling of graph realizations with a given degree sequence is an everyday task in several social science, computer science, engineering etc. projects. One approach is using Markov chains. The best available current result about the well-studied switch Markov chain is that it is rapidly mixing on P-stable degree sequences (see DOI:10.1016/j.ejc.2021.103421). The switch Markov chain does not change any degree sequence. However, there are cases where degree intervals are specified rather than a single degree sequence. (A natural scenario where this problem arises is in hypothesis testing on social networks that are only partially observed.) Rechner, Strowick, and M\"uller-Hannemann introduced in 2018 the notion of degree interval Markov chain which uses three (separately well-studied) local operations (switch, hinge-flip and toggle), and employing on degree sequence realizations where any two sequences under scrutiny have very small coordinate-wise distance. Recently Amanatidis and Kleer published a beautiful paper (arXiv:2110.09068), showing that the degree interval Markov chain is rapidly mixing if the sequences are coming from a system of very thin intervals which are centered not far from a regular degree sequence. In this paper we extend substantially their result, showing that the degree interval Markov chain is rapidly mixing if the intervals are centred at P-stable degree sequences.
Current practices in metric evaluation focus on one single dataset, e.g., Newstest dataset in each year's WMT Metrics Shared Task. However, in this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively show that the performances of metrics are sensitive to data. The ranking of metrics varies when the evaluation is conducted on different datasets. Then this paper further investigates two potential hypotheses, i.e., insignificant data points and the deviation of Independent and Identically Distributed (i.i.d) assumption, which may take responsibility for the issue of data variance. In conclusion, our findings suggest that when evaluating automatic translation metrics, researchers should take data variance into account and be cautious to claim the result on a single dataset, because it may leads to inconsistent results with most of other datasets.
We study online convex optimization with switching costs, a practically important but also extremely challenging problem due to the lack of complete offline information. By tapping into the power of machine learning (ML) based optimizers, ML-augmented online algorithms (also referred to as expert calibration in this paper) have been emerging as state of the art, with provable worst-case performance guarantees. Nonetheless, by using the standard practice of training an ML model as a standalone optimizer and plugging it into an ML-augmented algorithm, the average cost performance can be even worse than purely using ML predictions. In order to address the "how to learn" challenge, we propose EC-L2O (expert-calibrated learning to optimize), which trains an ML-based optimizer by explicitly taking into account the downstream expert calibrator. To accomplish this, we propose a new differentiable expert calibrator that generalizes regularized online balanced descent and offers a provably better competitive ratio than pure ML predictions when the prediction error is large. For training, our loss function is a weighted sum of two different losses -- one minimizing the average ML prediction error for better robustness, and the other one minimizing the post-calibration average cost. We also provide theoretical analysis for EC-L2O, highlighting that expert calibration can be even beneficial for the average cost performance and that the high-percentile tail ratio of the cost achieved by EC-L2O to that of the offline optimal oracle (i.e., tail cost ratio) can be bounded. Finally, we test EC-L2O by running simulations for sustainable datacenter demand response. Our results demonstrate that EC-L2O can empirically achieve a lower average cost as well as a lower competitive ratio than the existing baseline algorithms.
This tutorial aims to provide an intuitive understanding of the Gaussian processes regression. Gaussian processes regression (GPR) models have been widely used in machine learning applications because of their representation flexibility and inherent uncertainty measures over predictions. The basic concepts that a Gaussian process is built on, including multivariate normal distribution, kernels, non-parametric models, and joint and conditional probability were explained first. Next, the GPR was described concisely together with an implementation of a standard GPR algorithm. Beyond the standard GPR, packages to implement state-of-the-art Gaussian processes algorithms were reviewed. This tutorial was written in an accessible way to make sure readers without a machine learning background can obtain a good understanding of the GPR basics.
In the interdependent values (IDV) model introduced by Milgrom and Weber [1982], agents have private signals that capture their information about different social alternatives, and the valuation of every agent is a function of all agent signals. While interdependence has been mainly studied for auctions, it is extremely relevant for a large variety of social choice settings, including the canonical setting of public projects. The IDV model is very challenging relative to standard independent private values, and welfare guarantees have been achieved through two alternative conditions known as {\em single-crossing} and {\em submodularity over signals (SOS)}. In either case, the existing theory falls short of solving the public projects setting. Our contribution is twofold: (i) We give a workable characterization of truthfulness for IDV public projects for the largest class of valuations for which such a characterization exists, and term this class \emph{decomposable valuations}; (ii) We provide possibility and impossibility results for welfare approximation in public projects with SOS valuations. Our main impossibility result is that, in contrast to auctions, no universally truthful mechanism performs better for public projects with SOS valuations than choosing a project at random. Our main positive result applies to {\em excludable} public projects with SOS, for which we establish a constant factor approximation similar to auctions. Our results suggest that exclusion may be a key tool for achieving welfare guarantees in the IDV model.
Bearing fault identification and analysis is an important research area in the field of machinery fault diagnosis. Aiming at the common faults of rolling bearings, we propose a data-driven diagnostic algorithm based on the characteristics of bearing vibrations called multi-size kernel based adaptive convolutional neural network (MSKACNN). Using raw bearing vibration signals as the inputs, MSKACNN provides vibration feature learning and signal classification capabilities to identify and analyze bearing faults. Ball mixing is a ball bearing production quality problem that is difficult to identify using traditional frequency domain analysis methods since it requires high frequency resolutions of the measurement signals and results in a long analyzing time. The proposed MSKACNN is shown to improve the efficiency and accuracy of ball mixing diagnosis. To further demonstrate the effectiveness of MSKACNN in bearing fault identification, a bearing vibration data acquisition system was developed, and vibration signal acquisition was performed on rolling bearings under five different fault conditions including ball mixing. The resulting datasets were used to analyze the performance of our proposed model. To validate the adaptive ability of MSKACNN, fault test data from the Case Western Reserve University Bearing Data Center were also used. Test results show that MSKACNN can identify the different bearing conditions with high accuracy with high generalization ability. We presented an implementation of the MSKACNN as a lightweight module for a real-time bearing fault diagnosis system that is suitable for production.
Recent decades, the emergence of numerous novel algorithms makes it a gimmick to propose an intelligent optimization system based on metaphor, and hinders researchers from exploring the essence of search behavior in algorithms. However, it is difficult to directly discuss the search behavior of an intelligent optimization algorithm, since there are so many kinds of intelligent schemes. To address this problem, an intelligent optimization system is regarded as a simulated physical optimization system in this paper. The dynamic search behavior of such a simplified physical optimization system are investigated with quantum theory. To achieve this goal, the Schroedinger equation is employed as the dynamics equation of the optimization algorithm, which is used to describe dynamic search behaviours in the evolution process with quantum theory. Moreover, to explore the basic behaviour of the optimization system, the optimization problem is assumed to be decomposed and approximated. Correspondingly, the basic search behaviour is derived, which constitutes the basic iterative process of a simple optimization system. The basic iterative process is compared with some classical bare-bones schemes to verify the similarity of search behavior under different metaphors. The search strategies of these bare bones algorithms are analyzed through experiments.
Question Answering on Electronic Health Records (EHR-QA) has a significant impact on the healthcare domain, and it is being actively studied. Previous research on structured EHR-QA focuses on converting natural language queries into query language such as SQL or SPARQL (NLQ2Query), so the problem scope is limited to pre-defined data types by the specific query language. In order to expand the EHR-QA task beyond this limitation to handle multi-modal medical data and solve complex inference in the future, more primitive systemic language is needed. In this paper, we design the program-based model (NLQ2Program) for EHR-QA as the first step towards the future direction. We tackle MIMICSPARQL*, the graph-based EHR-QA dataset, via a program-based approach in a semi-supervised manner in order to overcome the absence of gold programs. Without the gold program, our proposed model shows comparable performance to the previous state-of-the-art model, which is an NLQ2Query model (0.9% gain). In addition, for a reliable EHR-QA model, we apply the uncertainty decomposition method to measure the ambiguity in the input question. We empirically confirmed data uncertainty is most indicative of the ambiguity in the input question.
We develop an unsupervised probabilistic model for heterogeneous Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. Utilizing a mixture model formulation, our approach directly models sequences of arbitrary length, such as medications and laboratory results. This allows for subgrouping and incorporation of the dynamics underlying heterogeneous data types. The model consists of a layered set of latent variables that encode underlying structure in the data. These variables represent subject subgroups at the top layer, and unobserved states for sequences in the second layer. We train this model on episodic data from subjects receiving medical care in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California integrated healthcare delivery system. The resulting properties of the trained model generate novel insight from these complex and multifaceted data. In addition, we show how the model can be used to analyze sequences that contribute to assessment of mortality likelihood.
Applications of machine learning in healthcare often require working with time-to-event prediction tasks including prognostication of an adverse event, re-hospitalization or death. Such outcomes are typically subject to censoring due to loss of follow up. Standard machine learning methods cannot be applied in a straightforward manner to datasets with censored outcomes. In this paper, we present auton-survival, an open-source repository of tools to streamline working with censored time-to-event or survival data. auton-survival includes tools for survival regression, adjustment in the presence of domain shift, counterfactual estimation, phenotyping for risk stratification, evaluation, as well as estimation of treatment effects. Through real world case studies employing a large subset of the SEER oncology incidence data, we demonstrate the ability of auton-survival to rapidly support data scientists in answering complex health and epidemiological questions.
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